5 Oct 2012 + Week 39 Analysis

5 Oct 2012

Market Summary 

Oh well... on Friday, the jobs report came in good, unemployment rate was reported to be down to 7.8% which caused the initial spike in all 3 indices. However, after lunch, people start profit taking and caused a little downwards movement...

Afterall, it was a flat to bullish day. However, the internals shows a rather weak participation. 606 Million shares traded in NYSE, with the UVOL outpacing the DVOL by just a little... Not forgetting that we have our ECB and BOE maintaining their rates unchanged.

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

It was rather flat on the sectors as well...

Technical Updates

With SPX and DJI hitting their resistance and NASDAQ lagging behind on Friday, this doesn't look good at all.... NASDAQ was lagging because AAPL dropped by around 2% on Friday. So NASDAQ nowadays can be quite misleading...

Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow +34.79 at 13615.4, Nasdaq -13.27 at 3136.19, S&P -0.47 at 1460.93 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equities began the day on a higher note despite mixed jobs data. After reaching session highs within the first hour, the major averages reversed and spent the remainder of the day sliding towards the unchanged level. As a result, the S&P 500 ended flat while the Dow advanced 0.3% to close at its best level in five years.  Nonfarm payrolls were reported at 114K versus the 120K Briefing.com consensus. The prior reading was revised up to 142K from 96K. Meanwhile, nonfarm private payrolls added 104K against the 130K consensus. The unemployment rate was reported at 7.8% versus the 8.1% consensus.  In addition, hourly earnings increased by 0.3% while the expectations called for an uptick of 0.2%. Lastly, average workweek ticked up to 34.5 from 34.4.  The materials sector led the way. Within the group, steel producers outperformed. AK Steel (AKS 4.87, +0.05) and Steel Dynamics (STLD 11.91, +0.18) added 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively.  Telecom stocks were the biggest laggard. However, the underperformance was due to notable weakness in a single stock. Inteliquent (IQNT 7.70, -1.36) fell 15.0% after Robert W. Baird downgraded the stock from ‘outperform' to ‘neutral' and lowered its price target from $15 to $10. Originally, Robert W. Baird upgraded the stock in the spring on the expectation of a financial engineering catalyst. Although that catalyst was achieved, the firm says results have unfortunately deteriorated more than expected and there now appears to be increased material risk to forward estimates.  Other telecom names were generally higher and the iShares Dow Jones US Telecom ETF (IYZ 25.76, +0.16) added 0.6%. Two sector components which have been in the headlines recently showed gains. Leap Wireless (LEAP 6.18, +0.33) and Sprint (S 5.20, +0.11) gained between 2.2% and 5.6%. Earlier, reports suggested that Sprint plans on holding a second meeting to discuss a possible offer for MetroPCS (PCS 12.65, -0.04).  The Dow Jones Transportation Average continued its recent streak of outperformance and settled higher by 0.7%. Within the bellwether complex, 16 out of 20 stocks advanced and trucking stocks were the top performers. Con-Way (CNW 27.98, +0.27), CH Robinson(CHRW 60.31, +0.41), JB Hunt (JBHT 55.20, +0.94), and Landstar (LSTR 48.96, +0.58) all posted gains between 0.7% and 1.7%.  Southwest Airlines (LUV 8.97, -0.13) was the main decliner among transportation stocks, down 1.4%.  Despite weakness in Southwest, other air carriers outperformed. China Eastern Airlines(CEA 16.08, +0.28) advanced 1.8% while United Airlines (UAL 21.07, +0.26) added 1.3%.  Solar stocks were under pressure after Avian Securities downgraded First Solar (FSLR 20.07, -2.48) from ‘positive' to ‘negative.' The downgrade results from reliability issues related to the junction box on modules supplied by First Solar. The company commented on the issue by saying approximately 232,000 modules may develop loose cord plates over time, but the issue is not expected to have a material impact on earnings. As a result, FSLR slid 11.0%.  Other solar stocks also showed weakness as the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN 16.52, -0.49) settled lower by 2.9%.  Consumer credit increased by $18.1 billion in August. This follows prior month's reading of a $3.3 billion decrease, and is higher than the $5.0 billion that had been broadly expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.  There is no economic data of note scheduled to be released on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Note that the bond market will be closed on Monday in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market, however, will be open.  Week in Review: Stocks Climb Higher Despite Macroeconomic Headwinds Monday's session started with an extension of the bullish sentiment observed in overseas action. Following a higher open, U.S. equities got an additional boost from the ISM Index which was reported at 51.5 against the expectations of a 49.7 reading. After rallying to session highs, the Dow held the bulk of its gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq spent the remainder of the session in a slow retreat towards the unchanged line. As a result, the Dow climbed 0.6%, the S&P 500 added 0.3%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%.Healthcare Services Group (HCSG 23.76, +0.22) gained 4.2% after UBS initiated coverage of the stock with a ‘buy' rating.  On Tuesday, the major averages got off to a strong start, but the bullish bias faded shortly after the open. Headlines out of Europe provided another risk-off signal as reports suggested that a Spanish aid request is not imminent. After marking their session highs during the first five minutes of trade, the key indices spent most of the session trending lower. However, a rally in the final hour of trading lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into positive territory while the Dow closed with a small loss of 0.2%. Biotech stocks showed strength and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 147.18, +0.36) added 1.1%. Wednesday's session began lower as the major averages showed indecision in the early going. After chopping around the flat line during the first hour of trade, the key indices reached their session highs at the midway point. Unable to hold those levels, stocks returned to the middle of the day's range before buyers re-emerged in the final hour. As a result, the S&P 500 added 0.4%. Netflix (NFLX 66.56, -0.11) jumped 10.8% after Citigroup pointed to a survey which showed an improvement in customer satisfaction.  On Thursday, stocks began the day with a bullish bias. The rally reached session highs 30 minutes after the open when the August factory orders report indicated a 5.2% decrease. The number was not positive in itself, posting its worst reading since January 2009. However, it was better-than-feared as expectations called for a 6.0% pullback. After marking session highs, stocks spent the remainder of the day hovering near those levels. As a result, the S&P 500 closed with a gain of 0.7%. The financial sector was the top performer, and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 16.06, 0.00) settled higher by 1.5%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1700/1288. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1121/1330.

Commodities

Crude Oil, Coffee, Rice and Wheat made some serious movement on Friday... Crude went below $90 again. While Coffee sunk approx 4%..

Treasuries

 


Weekly Analysis
Week 39

Technical Updates

 






 Commentaries






Weekly Wrap 

Dow +34.79 at 13615.4, Nasdaq -13.27 at 3136.19, S&P -0.47 at 1460.93

Equities began the day on a higher note despite mixed jobs data. After reaching session highs within the first hour, the major averages reversed and spent the remainder of the day sliding towards the unchanged level. As a result, the S&P 500 ended flat while the Dow advanced 0.3% to close at its best level in five years.

Nonfarm payrolls were reported at 114K versus the 120K Briefing.com consensus. The prior reading was revised up to 142K from 96K. Meanwhile, nonfarm private payrolls added 104K against the 130K consensus. The unemployment rate was reported at 7.8% versus the 8.1% consensus.

In addition, hourly earnings increased by 0.3% while the expectations called for an uptick of 0.2%. Lastly, average workweek ticked up to 34.5 from 34.4.

The materials sector led the way. Within the group, steel producers outperformed. AK Steel (AKS 4.87, +0.05) and Steel Dynamics (STLD 11.91, +0.18) added 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively.

Telecom stocks were the biggest laggard. However, the underperformance was due to notable weakness in a single stock. Inteliquent (IQNT 7.70, -1.36) fell 15.0% after Robert W. Baird downgraded the stock from ‘outperform' to ‘neutral' and lowered its price target from $15 to $10. Originally, Robert W. Baird upgraded the stock in the spring on the expectation of a financial engineering catalyst. Although that catalyst was achieved, the firm says results have unfortunately deteriorated more than expected and there now appears to be increased material risk to forward estimates.

Other telecom names were generally higher and the iShares Dow Jones US Telecom ETF (IYZ 25.76, +0.16) added 0.6%. Two sector components which have been in the headlines recently showed gains. Leap Wireless (LEAP 6.18, +0.33) and Sprint (S 5.20, +0.11) gained between 2.2% and 5.6%. Earlier, reports suggested that Sprint plans on holding a second meeting to discuss a possible offer for MetroPCS (PCS 12.65, -0.04).

The Dow Jones Transportation Average continued its recent streak of outperformance and settled higher by 0.7%. Within the bellwether complex, 16 out of 20 stocks advanced and trucking stocks were the top performers. Con-Way (CNW 27.98, +0.27), CH Robinson(CHRW 60.31, +0.41), JB Hunt (JBHT 55.20, +0.94), and Landstar (LSTR 48.96, +0.58) all posted gains between 0.7% and 1.7%.

Southwest Airlines (LUV 8.97, -0.13) was the main decliner among transportation stocks, down 1.4%.

Despite weakness in Southwest, other air carriers outperformed. China Eastern Airlines(CEA 16.08, +0.28) advanced 1.8% while United Airlines (UAL 21.07, +0.26) added 1.3%.

Solar stocks were under pressure after Avian Securities downgraded First Solar (FSLR 20.07, -2.48) from ‘positive' to ‘negative.' The downgrade results from reliability issues related to the junction box on modules supplied by First Solar. The company commented on the issue by saying approximately 232,000 modules may develop loose cord plates over time, but the issue is not expected to have a material impact on earnings. As a result, FSLR slid 11.0%.

Other solar stocks also showed weakness as the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN 16.52, -0.49) settled lower by 2.9%.

Consumer credit increased by $18.1 billion in August. This follows prior month's reading of a $3.3 billion decrease, and is higher than the $5.0 billion that had been broadly expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

There is no economic data of note scheduled to be released on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Note that the bond market will be closed on Monday in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market, however, will be open.

Week in Review: Stocks Climb Higher Despite Macroeconomic Headwinds

Monday's session started with an extension of the bullish sentiment observed in overseas action. Following a higher open, U.S. equities got an additional boost from the ISM Index which was reported at 51.5 against the expectations of a 49.7 reading. After rallying to session highs, the Dow held the bulk of its gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq spent the remainder of the session in a slow retreat towards the unchanged line. As a result, the Dow climbed 0.6%, the S&P 500 added 0.3%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. HealthcareServices Group (HCSG 23.76, +0.22) gained 4.2% after UBS initiated coverage of the stock with a ‘buy' rating.

On Tuesday, the major averages got off to a strong start, but the bullish bias faded shortly after the open. Headlines out of Europe provided another risk-off signal as reports suggested that a Spanish aid request is not imminent. After marking their session highs during the first five minutes of trade, the key indices spent most of the session trending lower. However, a rally in the final hour of trading lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into positive territory while the Dow closed with a small loss of 0.2%. Biotech stocks showed strength and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 147.18, +0.36) added 1.1%.

Wednesday's session began lower as the major averages showed indecision in the early going. After chopping around the flat line during the first hour of trade, the key indices reached their session highs at the midway point. Unable to hold those levels, stocks returned to the middle of the day's range before buyers re-emerged in the final hour. As a result, the S&P 500 added 0.4%. Netflix (NFLX 66.56, -0.11) jumped 10.8% after Citigroup pointed to a survey which showed an improvement in customer satisfaction.

On Thursday, stocks began the day with a bullish bias. The rally reached session highs 30 minutes after the open when the August factory orders report indicated a 5.2% decrease. The number was not positive in itself, posting its worst reading since January 2009. However, it was better-than-feared as expectations called for a 6.0% pullback. After marking session highs, stocks spent the remainder of the day hovering near those levels. As a result, the S&P 500 closed with a gain of 0.7%. The financial sector was the top performer, and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 16.06, 0.00) settled higher by 1.5%.

Next Week In View











The coming week is quite light with economic data, so I believe it will be a pretty flat week, especially with all the indices facing their major resistance at their previous high. To be able to break above the resistance... I guess the bulls will need more commitment and confidence that the market can go higher... Else... Bears will come in and jump out of the window...

Market Call(Week 39): DOWN
Market Call(8 Oct): DOWN

Date: 8 Oct 2012

4 Oct 2012 AMC

4 Oct 2012

Market Summary 

Oh well.. the market shot up appox 80 points after Draghi's speech, then subsequently some people started to take some profits... ECB and UK left their rates unchanged, while initial claims went up marginally. Continuing claims remain unchanged.I would say the market went up because of the ECB and UK central bank movements.

Moving the Market

Challenger Job Cuts: -70.8% actual, -36.9% prior.

Initial claims: 367k actual versus 365k expected.

Continuing claims: unchanged at 3.281 million.

August factory orders: -5.2% actual versus -6.0% expected.

Market Internals

 

 The internals are quite bullish, with all the internals being convergent, and the VIX going down...

Leaders and Laggards

Surprisingly... the leader of the day is the Telco... while the energy sector sunk. Discretionary, Financials and Healthcare made some nice movement as well...

Technical Updates

seems to me all 3 indices are reacting to the support that they found... However, SPX found a resistance already. And DOW is nearing another resistance. Today is going to be a day where they make or break these lines. IT"S NON FARM PAYROLLS TODAY!!!

Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow +80.75 at 13580.61, Nasdaq +14.23 at 3149.46, S&P +10.41 at 1461.4 :[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks began the session with a bullish bias. The rally reached session highs 30 minutes after the open when the August factory orders report indicated a 5.2% decrease. The number was not positive in itself, posting its worst reading since January 2009. However, it was better-than-feared as expectations called for a 6.0% pullback. After marking session highs, stocks spent the remainder of the day hovering near those levels. As a result, the S&P 500 closed with a gain of 0.7%.  The Federal Open Market Committee minutes suggested that economic activity continued to increase at a moderate pace in recent months. Employment rose slowly, but the unemployment rate remained high. Consumer price inflation was subdued, while measures of long-run inflation expectations remained stable. The committee also believes that significant additional asset purchases should not adversely affect the ability to tighten the stance of policy when doing so becomes appropriate.  The financial sector was the top performer, and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF(XLF 16.06, +0.23) settled higher by 1.5%. Major names showed strength across the board as Bank of America (BAC 9.41, +0.30) led its peers with a 3.3% gain. Meanwhile,Citigroup (C 34.96, +0.90), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.82, +0.96), and Morgan Stanley (MS 17.47, +0.44) all added in excess of 2.0%.  Elsewhere, Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR 20.99, +0.59) advanced 2.9% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from ‘equal-weight' to ‘overweight.'  The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 0.9%. Transportation stocks extended their run from yesterday, but today's strength resulted from notable gains made by a couple of individual names. Ryder System (R 41.56, +2.35) jumped 6.0% after Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey upgraded the stock from ‘neutral' to ‘buy.'  Meanwhile, railroads Kansas City Southern (KSU 75.22, +1.49) and Union Pacific(UNP 121.57, +0.93) settled higher by 2.0% and 0.8%, respectively.  Airlines showed some weakness after yesterday's broad advances. Southwest Airlines(LUV 9.09, -0.06) and United Continental (UAL 20.81, -0.33) slipped between 0.6% and 1.6%.  The technology sector was the biggest laggard of the session. Two names within the space showed weakness after cutting their third quarter guidance below consensus.O2Micro (OIIM 3.54, -0.24) fell 6.4% after lowering guidance due to broad-based weakness in the company's end markets.  Meanwhile, Informatica (INFA 26.03, -7.59) sank 22.6% after lowering its earnings and revenue estimates. The company said that softening demand in Europe was the primary reason for the weakness. Qlik Technologies (QLIK 19.54, -1.30) slid 6.2% as it traded down in sympathy.  A couple of names saw gains following analyst upgrades. eBay (EBAY 49.49, +0.90) rose by 1.9% after Nomura upgraded the online auction site from ‘ neutral' to ‘buy.' In addition, BCD Semiconductor (BCDS 3.75, +0.20) jumped 5.6% after Raymond James upgraded the stock from ‘underperform' to ‘market perform.'  Earlier, retailers reported same store sales for the month of September. Out of the 18 companies which have already announced their results, ten reported below analyst expectations. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 63.55, +0.98) added 1.6% despite the mixed results.  Looking at individual names, Costco (COST 101.48, +1.86) and Cato (CATO 30.28, +0.68) advanced 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively. Costco reported a 6.0% increase in September same store sales which was ahead of analyst expectations of a 5.2% increase. Meanwhile, Cato's 4.0% decrease was below expectations which called for sales to slip 0.7%.  Bon-Ton Stores (BONT 11.05, -0.91) slid 7.6% after reporting a 0.6% increase in same store sales. The Retail Metrics consensus called for a slightly higher growth of 1.0%.  The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 367,000, which was higher than the 365,000 that had been expected. The tally was above the revised prior week count of 363,000. As for continuing claims, they were unchanged at 3.281 million.  The September Challenger Job Cuts report indicated a 70.8% year-over-year decrease in job cuts.  Tomorrow's economic releases will focus on jobs. Nonfarm payrolls, nonfarm private payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, and average workweek will all be released at 8:30 ET. In addition, consumer credit data will be reported at 15:00 ET. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2209/808. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1675/815.

After Hours

16:27 ET DTLK -13.8% following earnings/guidance :

Stocks began the session with a bullish bias. The rally reached session highs 30 minutes after the open when the August factory orders report indicated a 5.2% decrease. The number was not positive in itself, posting its worst reading since January 2009. However, it was better-than-feared as expectations called for a 6.0% pullback. After marking session highs, stocks spent the remainder of the day hovering near those levels. As a result, the S&P 500 closed with a gain of 0.7%.

Today after the close no companies are scheduled to report earnings.

Futures are mixed after hours: S&P 500 futures are +0.34 from fair value of 1455.46 and Nasdaq100 futures are -0.81 from fair value of 2822.31.

Tomorrow morning before the open four economic reports are scheduled to be released: 1) Nonfarm Payrolls (Consensus 120k) and Nonfarm Private Payrolls (Consensus 130k), 2) Unemployment rate (Consensus 8.1%), 3) Hourly earnings (Consensus 0.2%), and 4) Average Workweek (Consensus 34.4).

Tomorrow before the open the following companies are scheduled to report earnings: STZ

Commodities

Coffee.... is really crazy... it made another 3% movement again... but to the downside this time... Coffee is really volatile man...

Treasuries

The market today will be focused on the employment report coming out from the US. Guiding by the ADP report. I believe the report is going to be dovish.

Market Call: UP

Date: 4 Oct 2012

3 Oct 2012 AMC

3 Oct 2012

Market Summary 

Bingo, Got it right...as expected from a few days before the non farm payrolls. To make things a little more exciting, FOMC meeting minutes, ECB press conference and Japan's rate announcement is today... This week is definitely a very heavy data week. With Ben Bernanke opening the week with his speech.. that leads to the NFP. This pattern has been repeating... Ben Bernanke likes to speak after or before non farm payroll. 

However, since the ADP report and the ISM report came out dovish, we're likely to expect the non farm payrolls to dovish as well. With the UK, and the ECB having their conferences, I reckon they will be justifying their bond purchase program. Let's see what they are going to talk about today.. 

Moving the Market

Weekly MBA Mortgage Index: +16.6% actual. +2.8% previous.

September ADP National Employment Change: +162k actual versus +133k expected.

September ISM Services: 55.1 actual versus 53.0 expected.

Market Internals

.
Judging by the internals... the up day is not exactly up... just flat... dead flat before major data... Volumes is just 650million shares traded in the NYSE.

Leaders and Laggards

Surprisingly... the telco are doing very well... leading the market yesterday... Likely to be influenced the released of Iphone 5. It has been said that the released of Iphone 5 is likely to increase the GDP by 1-2%. That's how much the biggest company in the world can do.

Nonetheless.. just a little trivial, Asus came out with a new Padfone! It's awesome and man... it's mind-blowing... it's even better Samsung Galaxy Note... Go check it out guys!

Technical Updates

What a volatile week... all caused by the major reports coming out this week. We should have a clearer direction after this week =D

Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow +12.25 at 13499.86, Nasdaq +15.19 at 3135.23, S&P +5.24 at 1450.99 : [BRIEFING.COM] Equities got off to a slow start as the major averages showed indecision in the early going. After chopping around the flat line during the first hour of trade, the key indices reached their session highs at the midway point. Unable to hold those levels, stocks returned to the middle of the day's range before buyers re-emerged in the final hour. As a result, the S&P 500 added 0.4%. The consumer discretionary sector led the way as a handful of names outperformed.Family Dollar (FDO 68.56, +2.56) gained 3.9% after reporting in-line earnings and revenues. The management also issued mixed guidance as it sees weaker first quarter results and full-year earnings which are expected to be in-line with estimates. Online video rental service Netflix (NFLX 62.58, +6.12) jumped 10.8% after Citigroup pointed to a survey which showed an improvement in customer satisfaction. Elsewhere, DineEquity (DIN 58.40, +1.87) rose by 3.3% after Janney Montgomery Scott upgraded the shares of the restaurant operator from ‘neutral' to ‘buy.' Homebuilder stocks showed broad strength as the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF(XHB 25.38, +0.55) settled higher by 2.2%. Within the group, Standard Pacific (SPF 7.17, +0.60) was the top performer as shares of the homebuilder spiked 9.1%. The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 1.2% as the vast majority of its components displayed strength. Railroads, CSX (CSX 21.18, +0.48) and Norfolk Southern (NSC 65.60, +0.58) advanced 2.3% and 0.9% respectively after Lazard upgraded the two stocks from ‘underperform' to ‘market perform.' Airline stocks were broadly higher after a handful of carriers reported positive monthly metrics. In addition, significant weakness in crude oil may have contributed to airline strength. United Continental (UAL 21.14, +1.20) jumped 6.0%, while Delta Airlines(DAL 10.16, +0.39) and Southwest Airlines (LUV 9.14, +0.16) gained 4.0% and 1.8%, respectively. The financial sector outperformed the broader market, and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 15.83, +0.14) settled higher by 0.9%. Bank of America (BAC 9.11, +0.18), Citigroup (C 34.06, +0.80), and Wells Fargo (WFC 35.44, +0.62) were the top performing majors as they registered gains between 1.8% and 2.4%. Elsewhere, Ocwen Financial (OCN 34.88, +5.92) spiked 20.4% after the company announced the acquisition of Homeward Residential from WL Ross & Company for $588 million in cash and $162 million in convertible preferred stock. MetroPCS (PCS 12.24, -1.33) fell 9.8% after the company confirmed its merger with T-Mobile USA. In addition, PCS announced the plans for a 1-for-2 reverse stock split. Prior to the reverse split, the company will make a cash payment of $1.5 billion—or $4.09 per share—to its shareholders. Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT 44.93, +29.94) soared 199.7% after announcing its eteplirsen met the primary endpoints of a trial while achieving significant clinical benefit on a 6-minute walk test. The positive results came after 48 weeks of treatment in phase IIb study focused on patients with duchenne muscular dystrophy. Crude oil extended yesterday's losses despite inventory data that showed a draw of 0.482 million barrels when a build of 1.5 million was anticipated. Although there wasn't any one item to point to for the weakness, contributing factors included a stronger dollar, reports about the highest crude output levels since December of 1996, and weak economic reports out of Europe and China which signaled demand concerns. The energy component fell off its session high of $90.67 per barrel, and brushed a session low of $87.96 moments before it settled with a 4.0% loss at $88.20. The September ISM Non-manufacturing Index was reported at 55.1, which was above the 53.0 Briefing.com consensus, and up from August's 53.7 reading. According to today's ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose by 162K in September. This was above the 133K increase expected by Briefing.com consensus. In addition, the prior month's increase was revised down by 17k, to reflect an addition of 156k jobs. In tomorrow's economic releases, Challenger Job Cuts will be reported at 7:30 ET. Initial and continuing claims will hit the wires at 8:30 ET, while factory orders will be released at 10:00 ET. In addition, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its September 12 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Also of note, retailers will release their monthly comparable store sales reports. Overseas, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will hold policy meetings. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1499/1512. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1131/1315. After Hours 16:50 ET MAR +2.6%, NUVA -23.1% following earnings/guidance : Equities got off to a slow start as the major averages showed indecision in the early going. After chopping around the flat line during the first hour of trade, the key indices reached their session highs at the midway point. Unable to hold those levels, stocks returned to the middle of the day's range before buyers re-emerged in the final hour. As a result, the S&P 500 added 0.4%. Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: MAR Futures are mixed after hours: S&P 500 futures are +0.50 from fair value of 1444.9 and Nasdaq100 futures are -1.53 from fair value of 2812.28. Tomorrow morning before the open two economic reports are scheduled to be released: 1) Challenger Job Cuts, and 2) Initial Claims (Consensus 365k) and Continuing Claims (Consensus 3273k). Tomorrow before the open the following companies are scheduled to report earnings: ISCA

Commodities

Crude oil finally drops below $90 per barrel. And Nat Gas managed to chunk up quite a bit of gains since yesterday! Now coffee made a retracement of 1.4%.. Man coffee is really volatile..

Treasuries

Not much movement in the treasuries...



Major reports.... ECB press conference, MPC rate statement, FOMC minutes, and JPY monetary policy statement...

I think this is definitely a coordinated movement by the central banks... Gonna stay out of the market today...

Market Call: ABSTAIN

Date: 4 Oct 2012

2 Oct AMC

20 September

Market Summary 

Finally I'm back in Singapore!!! Bangkok is an awesome place... gonna blog about my Bangkok trip soon...

Anyway, losing a little touch in the market situation during my holiday, so pardon me if i missed out some major news.

The market yesterday was a little funky... the DJI was down, SPX and COMP were up.

Market Internals

.
In the NYSE, the total volumes is below average, under 600 million shares traded. The UVOL and DVOL are on par. It was really a flat day. Except there are more new highs than new lows... consistently for quite a while already. TRIN stayed in the bearish region throughout the session. Suggesting there are slightly more stocks declining.

Leaders and Laggards

Not much movements from the sectors as well.


Technical Updates

For the 3 main indices, they are forming stalled patterns on support. I believe if that support holds, we might be looking at some upside in the market. Until the election is over.

Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:15 ET Dow -32.75 at 13487.61, Nasdaq +6.51 at 3120.04, S&P +1.26 at 1445.75 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages got off to a strong start, but the bullish bias faded shortly after the open. Headlines out of Europe provided another risk-off signal as reports suggested that a Spanish aid request is not imminent. After marking their session highs during the first five minutes of trade, the key indices spent most of the session trending lower. However, a rally in the final hour of trading lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into positive territory while the Dow closed with a small loss of 0.2%. The health care sector was the day's top performer. Within the space, biotech stocks showed strength which was reflected by the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 145.18, +1.54) adding 1.1%. Looking at individual names, Amgen (AMGN 86.35, +1.27) traded at its all-time high before closing higher by 1.5%. Meanwhile, Gilead(GILD 69.17, +1.73) also marked a fresh all-time best as the shares gained 2.5%. On the downside, ArQule (ARQL 2.18, -2.81) fell 56.3%. The weakness followed the company's announcement regarding the discontinuation of Phase 3 MARQUEE clinical trial in non-small cell lung cancer after determination that study would not meet its primary endpoint. As a result of the announcement, Needham downgraded ArQule from ‘buy' to ‘hold.' Telecom stocks also outperformed as buyout speculation lifted one name to its best level since July 2011. MetroPCS (PCS 13.57, +2.05) spiked 17.8% after a Bloomberg TV report suggested the company may be nearing a deal with Deutsche Telecom/T-Mobile. Peer, Leap Wireless (LEAP 7.59, +0.59) surged 8.4% while Sprint (S 4.90, -0.28) slipped 5.4%. The materials sector was the weakest performer as steel and aluminum producers were under pressure. AK Steel (AKS 4.79, -0.09), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 38.55, -0.33), and United States Steel (X 18.99, -0.32) all posted losses between 0.8% and 1.8%. Elsewhere in the sector, Mosaic (MOS 55.76, -2.25) slid 3.9% after missing on both earnings and revenues. The company's earnings per share were reported $0.15 below consensus estimates, while revenues fell $180 million short of estimates. In its defense, the company cited longer annual maintenance shut-downs and challenges posed by hurricanes, noting demand for products outpaced Mosaic's ability to produce and deliver. Wassau Paper (WPP 8.67, -0.49) slid 5.4% after lowering its full-year guidance due to lower profitability at its facility in Brainerd, Minnesota. Other paper names were mixed as Neenah Paper (NP 27.91, -0.67) shed 2.3% while Louisiana-Pacific (LPX 13.00, +0.32) gained 2.5%. The Dow Jones Transportation Average edged up as it outperformed the remaining industrials. Airline stocks enjoyed their second consecutive day of gains as Delta Airlines (DAL 9.77, +0.30) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU 4.98, +0.11) rose by 3.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, shipping stocks led the transportation complex. Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG 7.08, +0.59) jumped 9.1% after its joint venture with Euronav secured a new charter deal. Peer, Matson (MATX 20.50, +0.34) added 1.7% on related strength. Financial stocks showed some relative outperformance. Citigroup (C 33.26, +0.51) was the top performer among the majors. The financial giant gained 1.6% after Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Citigroup from ‘market perform' to ‘outperform.' Elsewhere in the sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.92, -0.05) shed 0.1% after New York Attorney General, Eric Schneiderman announced he would file a lawsuit against the bank over mortgage-backed securities sold by Bear Stearns. In tomorrow's economic data, the MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET. In addition, the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services will be released at 8:15 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1589/1406. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1258/1192. After Hours 16:42 ET FIRE flat, XRTX -13.0% following earnings/guidance : The major averages got off to a strong start, but the bullish bias faded shortly after the open. Headlines out of Europe provided another risk-off signal as reports suggested that a Spanish aid request is not imminent. After marking their session highs during the first five minutes of trade, the key indices spent most of the session trending lower. However, a rally in the final hour of trading lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into positive territory while the Dow closed with a small loss of 0.2%. Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: RECN, XRTX Futures are higher after hours: S&P 500 futures are +0.23 from fair value of 1439.57 and Nasdaq100 futures are +1.92 from fair value of 2793.08. Tomorrow morning before the open two economic reports are scheduled to be released: 1) MBA Mortgage Index, 2) ADP Employment Change (Consensus 133k). Tomorrow before the open the following companies are scheduled to report earnings: FDO, MON, RPM

Commodities

Coffee spiked by 3% at 3pm SGT. Gonna watch SBUX soon..

Treasuries

Through my observation, the bonds have been selling off... and the money is definitely not going into the equities. I reckon the commodities or the currencies might have a surge in volume..



The ADP report and ISM report is going to the main mover today. Gotta stay tune for the news. Afterall, it's the NFP week =D

Market Call: UP

Date: 3 Oct 2012