4 Apr 2013 AMC

4 Apr 2013

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow +55.76 at 14606.11, Nasdaq +6.38 at 3224.98, S&P +6.29 at 1559.98 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equities began the day on a mixed note with the S&P 500 climbing out of the gate while Nasdaq slipped into the red, where it spent the majority of today's session.  Although the S&P saw early gains, the index notched its highs within the opening minutes, before sliding into negative territory. However, afternoon buying pulled the S&P out of the red, and the index ended with a gain of 0.4%.  After Wednesday's selloff caused the benchmark average to slide 1.1%, a handful of yesterday's underperformers began among today's leaders. The early leadership did not hold into the afternoon as some defensive sectors began appearing atop the leaderboard.  Counter-cyclical telecoms and utilities climbed throughout the day, and saw the largest gains. In addition, a rebound in financials and materials helped those two groups outperform the broader market.  Although the financial sector ended with firm gains, major components saw mixed performance. Goldman Sachs (GS 142.99, -0.42) shed 0.3% while JPMorgan Chase(JPM 47.49, +0.64) rose 1.4%.  Despite today's gains, financials remain one of the weakest sectors in April. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 18.08, +0.16) is down 0.7% since April 1.  Elsewhere, the SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 38.47, +0.33) climbed 0.9% amid strength in gold miners. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 35.22, +0.97) advanced 2.8%.  Even though materials finished among today's leaders, the sector is the second weakest performer in April, trailing behind energy. The energy space shed 0.2% during today's session as crude oil slipped 1.3% to $93.25 per barrel.  While financials and materials were able to rebound from yesterday's selloff, that was not the case for the Dow Jones Transportation Average. After losing more than 1.0% in each of the past three sessions, the bellwether complex ended little changed as railroads pressured the 20-stock group. CSX (CSX 23.77, -0.18) and Norfolk Southern (NSC 73.86, -1.30) saw respective losses of 0.8% and 1.7% after an analyst report suggested carriers will report disappointing first quarter rail volume.  On the downside, weakness among major tech names like Apple (AAPL 427.72, -4.27),Google (GOOG 795.07, -11.13), and International Business Machines (IBM 211.31, -1.35) weighed on the sector. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended with a gain of just 0.2%.  Despite the broader market ending in positive territory, a safety bid across the Treasury complex sent the 10-yr yield lower by five basis points to 1.76%. Also notable was the 30-yr yield finishing below 3.00% for the first time in 2013.  Today's volume was largely in-line with Monday's total as just over 645 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  Looking back at the final sector performance, telecom (+1.3%), utilities (+0.9%), financials (+0.9%), and materials (+0.8%) outperformed the broader market. Meanwhile, technology (-0.2%) and energy (-0.1%) settled in the red.  Today's economic data focused on jobs. The initial claims level jumped to 385,000 for the week ending March 30 from 357,000 for the week ending March 23. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 345,000.  The increase in claims was not the result of a sudden softening in labor market conditions. The seasonal adjustments used by the Department of Labor have a difficult time accounting for the Easter holiday. Because the Easter holiday falls on a different date each year, the seasonal adjustments from one year to the next cannot adequately explain seasonal employment fluctuations from Easter-related hiring and firing.  Tomorrow morning will be busy in terms of economic news. March nonfarm payrolls, nonfarm private payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, average workweek, and February trade balance will all be reported at 8:30 ET. The busy day will be topped off by a 15:00 ET release of February consumer credit. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1836/1106. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1552/862.

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Was almost right but the market did not move higher than what I expected. It seems that BOJ's decision isn't affecting the US market much. Initial Claims were more than expectation however Continuing claims feel to 3.063million. The main laggard last night was only energy, having lagged only 0.13%. While the strongest gainer is Utilities, Financials and Materials. Volumes were decent and the bulls outpaced the bears by 2 to 1. Not exactly a bull day. Nasdaq was also being lagged by key component stocks like Apple, IBM and Google. We're going to see some big movement at 830am ET tonight when the NFP comes out. Stay tune. Gonna be a tough day to make a market call.

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 5 Apr 2013

3 Apr 2013 AMC

3 Apr 2013

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow -111.66 at 14550.35, Nasdaq -36.26 at 3218.6, S&P -16.56 at 1553.69 : [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 spent today's session in a steady decline before settling lower by 1.1%. Notably, small cap stocks extended their recent weakness as indicated by a 1.7% decline in the Russell 2000. Including today's weakness, the small cap index is down more than 3.0% since Monday's open. However, the small cap index was not the only casualty of today's selling. Growth-oriented sectors pressured the broader market from the open as financials and energy led to the downside. The financial sector ended as the biggest laggard. Citigroup (C 42.50, -1.61) was the weakest performer among the majors, and the broader SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 17.92, -0.30) fell 1.7%. Elsewhere, the energy sector was pressured by a notable drop in the price of crude oil. The energy component slid 2.9% to $94.41. In response, the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE 77.23, -1.47) lost 1.9%. Commodity-related stocks in the materials space also finished among the biggest decliners. The SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 38.14, -0.32) dropped 0.8%, and the sector ETF is down almost 5.0% since March 14. The continued global growth concerns were also reflected by the price of copper, which fell 1.5% to $3.327 per pound, its lowest level since early August. While today's selling weighed on all ten sectors, two groups which were key to the first quarter rally, registered wider losses than the broader market. The Dow Jones Transportation Average finished lower by 1.3% with airlines leading the decline. Delta Air Lines (DAL 14.56, -0.38) and United Continental (UAL 28.66, -0.72) both lost 2.5%. Today marked the third consecutive session which saw the bellwether complex end with a loss of at least 1.0%. In addition, the 20-stock group ended the day on its 50-day moving average. The index has not closed below this closely-watched indicator since November 21. Homebuilders also saw outsized losses and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 28.52, -0.83) slid 2.8%. Today's selling also caused the homebuilders ETF to end below its 50-day average, and down 5.0% on the week. Also of note, the recent saber-rattling out of North Korea continued today with reports indicating the North Korean army has received the approval for a nuclear attack on the United States. Although the headline crossed late this afternoon, defense-related stocks outperformed throughout the session. The PHLX Defense Sector Index ended with a loss of just 0.3%. Today's volume was well above average as more than 810 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Reviewing today's final sector performance, financials (-1.7%), energy (-1.6%), consumer staples (-1.1%), and consumer discretionary (-1.0%) ended as the weakest sectors. Meanwhile, utilities (-0.3%), health care (-0.6%), and industrials (-0.7%) outperformed the broader market. Looking back at today's economic data, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications fell 4.0% to follow last week's rise of 7.7%. According to today's ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose by 158K in March. This was below the increase of 197K expected by the Briefing.com consensus. The ISM Non-manufacturing index softened in March, falling from 56.0 in February to 54.4. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to drop to 55.5. Tomorrow, March Challenger Job Cuts will be reported at 7:30 ET while initial and continuing claims will be announced at 8:30 ET. In addition, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are both scheduled to announce their latest interest rate decisions. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 649/2358. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 572/1891.

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In other news...

North Korea has permitted a nuclear attack against US.

For details, refer to http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/n-korea-approves-nuclear-strike-on-us/626650.html

BOJ announces open-ended bond purchase plan ... Can purchase all maturities up to 40 years, sets two year timeline for 2% inflation target ... Monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about JPY60-70 trln

For details of this release, click here:http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf

While on the market, market came down much more than what I've expected, with the financials and the energy lagging the market heavily. While on the internals, we're having much higher than expected volumes at 800million shares traded on the NYSE, and the bears clearly outpacing the bears. VIX spiked to 14.21. While having the financials, industrials lagging the market clearly, and the defensive sectors like healthcare, transportation and telecom performing much better than the S&P500. I reckon we're going to correct very soon. However, we're having Bernanke's talk tonight and the NFP tomorrow and that will likely to be a deciding factor to whether the market will correct before earnings season. The ISM and ADP job report came in much disappointing data which contributed to the 100 points drop in the Dow. However, I believe the BOJ's decision will likely to cause a knee jerk reaction tonight. If Bernanke don't screw up his speech, we're likely to end up higher tonight. 

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 5 Mar 2013

2 Apr 2013 AMC

2 Apr 2013

Market Summary 

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Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:15 ET Dow +89.16 at 14662.01, Nasdaq +15.69 at 3254.86, S&P +8.08 at 1570.25 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equities spent the bulk of today's session near their highs before a late afternoon stumble dropped the S&P 500 back near the middle of its range. As a result, the benchmark average finished higher by 0.5%.  Notably, the Russell 2000, which tracks small cap stocks, ended lower by 0.5% after losing more than 1.0% yesterday.  Equities began today's session with solid gains amid an upbeat European trade. The overseas advance followed the release of several Manufacturing PMI readings across the eurozone. Although most reports exceeded expectations, all five remained below 50, signifying an ongoing contraction.  Domestically, the health care sector showed strength out of the gate with managed care stocks jumping after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said 2014 Medicaid Advantage and prescription drug benefit rates will increase by 3.3%. Dow component UnitedHealth Group (UNH 61.74, +2.77) gained 4.7% while the broader SPDR Health Care Select Sector ETF (XLV 46.74, +0.67) rose 1.5%.  The health care sector was not the only defensively-minded space which outperformed the broader market. Consumer staples and telecoms finished among the session leaders as well.  One cyclical group which finished among the leaders was the consumer discretionary sector. Apparel stocks provided support after Urban Outfitters (URBN 39.87, +1.46) gave an optimistic update on its first quarter sales.  Elsewhere in the discretionary space, Ford Motor (F 13.01, +0.11) and General Motors(GM 27.93, +0.13) settled with respective gains of 0.9% and 0.5% after reporting their monthly sales. In March, Ford saw its sales climb 6.0% to 236,160 vehicles while General Motors reported an increase of 6.4% to 245,950 units.  While discretionary shares ended firmly higher, the same could not be said for other growth-sensitive sectors.  Producers of basic materials saw a continuation of their recent weakness. Downbeat trade in steelmakers caused the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 41.87, -1.06) to lose 2.5% while the broader SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 38.46, -0.38) fell 1.0%. Since March 14, the sector ETF is down almost 4.0% while the S&P 500 is little changed over that time.  While materials spent the entire session in negative territory, intraday weakness sent the industrial sector to its lows, where it settled for the day. Transportation-related stocks contributed to the sector's softness, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 1.2%. Airlines pressured the 20-stock complex after Delta (DAL 14.94, -1.31) trimmed its guidance, citing the sequester as one of the reasons for lower targets.  Trading volume was below average once again as 640 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  Looking back at the final sector performance, health care (+1.4%), consumer staples (+1.1%), and consumer discretionary (+0.9%) paced the advance while materials (-0.9%), energy (-0.5%), and industrials (-0.1%) weighed.  Reviewing today's economic data, manufacturing orders rose 3.0% in February after declining an upwardly revised 1.0% (from -2.0%) in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected manufacturing orders to increase 2.6%.  Durable goods orders were revised down slightly from a 5.7% gain to 5.6%. A 75.0% increase in aircraft sales accounted for nearly the entire increase. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.7%, which was slightly worse than the originally reported 0.5% decline.  Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET. In addition, March ADP Employment Change and ISM Services will be released at 8:15 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1435/1546. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1093/1368.

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What a gain on the Dow last night, a near 90 points gain suddenly, with UNH being the biggest gainer leading the entire HMO industry as well. On top of that, we have AT&T and Verizon being one of the huge gainers. And it seems that the whole market is directing their cash into defensive play for now. However, the precious metals, which is gold and silver sunk last night despite the market rallying. It seems that there is a major cashing out from these 2 precious metals. And the second largest gainer is the consumer staples. This further prove that the market is already in the defensive play when the market is all the way at the high. And also to note that the Dow just broke a new high again. Volumes is standing at 639 million shares traded. But something bizarre happened. The UVOL is lower than the DVOL marginally and the ADVN merely outpaced the DECN by a little. TRIN stayed in the bearish region last night. This is definitely something very divergent. Since the earning season is starting tomorrow, I reckon the market is starting to be sidelined and adopt the wait and see how attitude. If any single bit of weakness in the earnings, I'm gonna go shorting together with the market. While today we are having the ISM and the ADP report today. So we might have some volatility again tonight. 

Market Call:FLAT to downside

Date: 5 Mar 2013

1 April 2013 AMC

1 Apr 2013

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Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:10 ET Dow -5.69 at 14572.85, Nasdaq -28.35 at 3239.17, S&P -7.02 at 1562.17 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended near their lows, and the S&P 500 lost 0.5%. With European markets shuttered for Easter Monday, equities saw little change at the start of today's session. However, that changed quickly once the March ISM Index was reported below expectations. The Index was reported at 51.3, which was its lowest reading since December, and it sent the major averages to their lows with cyclical sectors pacing the decline. In addition to the disappointing ISM report, weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI readings out of China and a cautious Tankan Survey reported in Japan put growth concerns back on the minds of investors. Those concerns were reflected by the weakness of industrials and materials. The two growth-oriented sectors finished as the weakest performers with industrials registering the widest decline. The SPDR Industrial Select Sector ETF (XLI 41.25, -0.51) fell 1.2%. Transportation-related stocks did their part in pressuring the space as the Dow Jones Transportation Average ended lower by 1.5%. All 20 stocks comprising the Transportation Average settled in the red, and truckers were among the weakest performers. Ryder System (R 58.67, -1.08) and Landstar(LSTR 55.71, -1.38) saw respective losses of 1.8% and 2.4%. Elsewhere, producers of basic materials saw an extension of their recent softness. The SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 38.84, -0.34) ended lower by 0.9%, which trimmed its year-to-date gain to 3.2%. Note that the materials sector has been the worst performing group so far in 2013. On a related note, copper continued showing weakness with its price sliding 0.9% to $3.372 per pound. The metal, widely considered to be a global economic bellwether, ended today's session at levels last seen in August of last year. The technology sector also ended among today's biggest declines. Large cap tech names saw mixed performance but the largest sector component, Apple (AAPL 428.91, -13.75), fell 3.1%. Also of note, high-beta chipmakers lagged notably and the PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped 2.0%. On the upside, defensive sectors saw slimmer losses than the broader market with telecom services ending in positive territory due to the relative strength of AT&T (T 37.25, +0.56). With equities ending near their lows, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.62, +0.92) settled near its highest level of the day. The near-term volatility climbed over 7.0%, suggesting downside protection received some buying interest during today's session. Looking back at the final sector performance, industrials (-1.1%), technology (-1.0%), materials (-1.0%) and consumer discretionary (-0.8%) all trailed behind the broader market. Meanwhile, telecom (+0.8%), health care (+0.2%), and consumer staples (UNCH) outperformed. Today's volume represented the third lowest total of the year as 575 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Reviewing today's economic data, construction spending rose 1.1% in February after falling 2.1% in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected construction spending to rise 0.9%. Private construction spending increased 1.3% after declining 3.1% in January. Public spending increased 0.9%, up from a 0.2% gain in January. The ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 51.3 in March from 54.2 in February (Briefing.com consensus 54.0). That was the first drop since November, and should not have been too surprising given the mixed March regional manufacturing surveys. New order levels softened as the related index fell from 57.8 in February to 51.4 in March. In addition, order backlogs also weakened, from 55.0 to 51.0. In tomorrow's economic data, February factory orders will be reported at 10:00 ET and automakers will be reporting their March sales throughout the day. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 916/2089. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 668/1775.

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Looks like the market is getting more wobbly now as the NFP and the earning season coming this week. Last night quite some action where the market sold off at the beginning of the trading session. Industrials were the main laggard of the trading day yesterday. Volumes were very low at 570 million shares traded on the NYSE. While we do not have much economic report coming out today, i reckon we are going to be sideways today. 

Market Call: FLAT 

Date: 2 Apr 2013

28 Mar 2013 AMC

28 Mar 2013 AMC

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Commentaries 

Stock Market Update

16:15 ET Dow +52.38 at 14578.54, Nasdaq +11.00 at 3267.52, S&P +6.34 at 1569.19 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended the last session of the holiday-shortened week with slim gains. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, and notched its highest close of all-time, eclipsing the previous record close set on October 9, 2007.  The day began on a rather uneventful note, but the flat open was followed by a brief stumble which sent the S&P 500 into negative territory after the latest reading of the Chicago PMI missed expectations.  For March, the Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.4 from the 56.8 reported in the February report. Meanwhile, the Briefing.com consensus had expected a smaller decline, to 56.5.  The subsequent weakness was quickly bought up, which enabled the benchmark average to spend the rest of the day in a steady upward climb.  Although equities settled with gains, today's advance was paced primarily by defensively-minded groups. Health care and utilities led the broader market for the duration of the session, and ended as the top performing sectors on the day.  Notably, the health care sector ended the month as the top performing group. Further, having gained 15.2% year-to-date, the sector is also the best performer so far in 2013.  Today's other outperformers included industrials and materials. However, their gains were largely the result of rebound trade after the growth-oriented groups saw some weakness over the past two weeks.  The SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 39.18, +0.15) settled higher by 0.4%, but even with today's gain, the sector ETF ended the month as the second weakest performer, trailing only behind telecom services.  The weakness of the materials sector is indicative of the persisting growth concerns. These same worries are being reflected by the price of copper futures, which fell 1.1% to $3.405 per pound, to end the quarter at their lowest level since November of last year.  While materials found themselves near the lead, cyclical financials and technology ended as the weakest performers.  Major bank stocks remained under pressure since the first Cypriot bailout proposal was unveiled two weeks ago. Morgan Stanley (MS 21.98, -0.31) was the weakest performer among the majors and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 18.21, +0.05) registered a slim gain of 0.3% in today's action. However, even with today's gain, the bank sector ETF is down 1.6% since last Monday.  Elsewhere, the technology sector was unable to climb too far above yesterday's close as Apple (AAPL 442.66, -9.42) weighed. The largest tech stock sold off steadily throughout the day before ending lower by 2.1% Also of note, BlackBerry (BBRY 14.44, -0.12) slipped 0.8% after beating on earnings on below-consensus revenue.  Reviewing the final sector performance, utilities (+1.3%), health care (+1.0%), industrials (+0.6%), and materials (+0.5%) led the way. On the downside, energy (-0.3%), financials (+0.2%), and technology (+0.3%) lagged.  Looking back at the day's economic data, the latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 357,000. This was higher than the 338,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was also above the revised prior week count of 341,000. As for continuing claims, they fell to 3.050 million from 3.077 million. The third estimate of third quarter GDP showed growth of 0.4%, which was better than the 0.3% that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Meanwhile, the third quarter GDP Deflator was revised up to 1.0%.  Note that equity and bond markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. However, a handful of economic data points will be reported on Friday. February personal income, personal spending and core PCE prices will all be reported at 8:30 ET. Lastly, the final March Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey will be released at 9:55 ET.

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Weekly Analysis
Week 38



Technical Updates


 



 

Briefing's Commentaries


Week in Review: Cyprus Remains in Focus 
On Monday, the major averages ended the headline-filled session with modest losses, and the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.3%. Equities began the day amid broad strength with the early gains coming after Cyprus and the Eurogroup agreed on the terms of a rescue package for the island nation. The early gains did not hold past the opening hour after Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem gave an interview to Reuters in which he explained how the Cypriot bank restructuring may be used as a template for future bailout talks. Growth-oriented sectors were responsible for the bulk of Monday's losses. The industrial space ended as the biggest laggard amid broad weakness. Machinery producers lagged throughout the day, and Caterpillar (CAT 86.97, +0.07) lost 0.9%. 

Tuesday ended with firm gains and the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.8%. After starting the day on a positive note, the benchmark average spent the balance of the session in a six-point range. Energy was the only economically-sensitive group which settled among the leaders. Crude oil contributed to the sector strength as the energy component climbed 1.5% to $96.26. Meanwhile, the SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE 79.31, -0.23) ended higher by 1.1%. 

Wednesday's session saw the S&P 500 overcome early losses to close lower by 0.1%. The index began the session lower by 0.8% as European worries remained at the forefront. The future of the eurozone was questioned as market participants speculated whether or not the European Union will copy the Cypriot playbook next time a troubled nation is in need of emergency assistance. Bank stocks reflected the uncertainty surrounding the eurozone. While most sectors ended the session well off their lows, banks settled near the bottom of today's range. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF ended lower by 0.5% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 47.46, -0.31) was the weakest performer among the majors. Shares of JPMorgan fell 1.8% to close below their 50-day moving average. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1869/1135. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1375/1081.



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Jason's Commentaries

Was right on the call on the eve of good Friday. Market was up 52 points, with only the Energy sector lagging the market. The leaders for the day was the Healthcare sector and the Utilities sector. It seems that the defensive sector are gaining strength. In fact, the defensive sector has already been over bought. The PE ratio of the S&P500 were 18.35, but the PE on the Transportation index, is 20.75, 25.03 on the Dow Utility, and Russel 2000 is at 34.88. This has been showing that the market has been turning defensive or rather, it has been going up quietly for the past 2 months. On Thursday, we have a sudden surge in market participation of 770 million shares traded on the NYSE, higher than any day on the past week. On the same day, the Dow and the SPX broke another new high. The treasuries started to retrace on Thursday when the market decides to make another high. Components like Caterpillar is weighing down the market as the machine makers lost quite a bit. On the internals, we're having the bulls outpacing the bears by a 2 to 1 ratio and it's not a very clear win on the sentiment. I reckon this bearish effect is going to be carried over to this week while we are going to have the employment report coming out and Bernanke talking on Thursday.

Market Call: Flat to downside

Date: 1 April 2013