24 August 2012
Market Summary
Was expecting the market to turn down as QE3's expectation is not as convincing... However.. Bernanke's suddenly letter to Darrell Issa, the California Republican who heads the House Oversight and Government Reform committee, turned the market around... else... i'll be right...
Market Internals
Judging from the total volume, it's another day with weaker volume, at 515million shares traded... The internals were bullish... but on lower volumes...
Leaders and laggards
Consumer staples,healthcare and Utilities were the biggest gainers on friday.... while industries were dragged down by BA's latest news of order cancellation by quatas.. a move to save 8.5 billion dollars..
Technical Updates
On the technical note, both indices showed a piercing pattern on their respective support level... i suppose we're going be looking at some upside...
Commentaries
| Stock Market Update |
| 16:30 ET Dow +100.51 at 13163.08, Nasdaq +16.39 at 3069.79, S&P +9.05 at 1411.13 : [BRIEFING.COM] After beginning the session in the red, stocks rallied after rumors suggested the European Central Bank is considering setting a yield band target as part of the new bond buying program. The news broke 15 minutes before the European close and caused a 50 pip spike in the euro as well as a rise to session highs by the major indices. The euro ended up giving up those gains, while U.S. stocks managed to build on the strength. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 closed higher by 0.7% on below average volume. Durable goods orders were reported this morning, showing an increase in July by 4.2%, which was better than the 2.5% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. This comes after the prior month's reading was revised up from 1.3% to 1.6%. Excluding transportation related items, durable goods orders decreased in July by 0.4%, which is worse than the 0.6% increase that had been broadly anticipated. The prior month's reading was revised from -1.4% to -2.2%. Telecom was the top performing sector as major players made considerable advances.Verizon (VZ 43.17, +0.92) advanced by 2.2% while Sprint Nextel (S 4.88, +0.10) andFrontier Communications (FTR 4.63, +0.07) ended higher by 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively. The healthcare space also outperformed with two major names making headlines.Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI 83.31, +4.68) gained 6.0% after its generic substitute for the Lidoderm pain patch was approved. Lidoderm's original manufacturer Endo Health(ENDP 32.17, +0.29) rose by 0.3%. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly (LLY 43.86, +1.46) climbed 3.4% after announcing the results of its clinical trials focused on patients with Alzheimer's disease. Even though the trials did not meet the top goals, the company highlighted some positive outcomes. In the utilities sector, Black Hills (BKH 33.42, +2.41) surged 7.8% after the company sold its Williston Basin oil and gas assets for $243 million. Peers MDU Resources Group (MDU 22.07, +0.31) and AES Corporation (AES 11.51, +0.13) added 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively. Major financials traded mostly in-line with the broader market. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 15.13, +0.08) gained 0.5%. American Express (AXP 57.49, +1.07) and Goldman Sachs (GS 104.96, +0.88) were the top performers as they closed higher by 1.9% and 0.9%, respectively. However, European financials did not share the optimism as Barclays (BCS 11.86, -0.19) slipped 1.6% and UBS (UBS 11.20, -0.10) slid 0.9%. Two names managed impressive reversals off lows brought on by disappointing earnings. After being down more than 4.0% in pre-market, Salesforce (CRM 148.54, +1.77) rallied by nearly 6.0% after reporting an earnings beat and in-line revenues. Autodesk (ADSK 30.13, -5.58) also saw a significant reversal. The early weakness was brought on by a disappointing quarterly report which showed a miss on earnings and revenues as well as downside guidance. Shares of the technology company have rallied more than 7.0% off lows but the stock ended down by 15.6%. The euro was lower today but up on the week, after a weeklong rally took the common currency from 1.2295 to 1.2560. The euro began showing weakness in the early part of the session, but the rate cap rumor made rounds just ahead of the European close and led to an initial pop in the currency. The talks were viewed as risk-positive and lifted the euro to 1.2560 before fading to 1.2510. Treasury yields had been rising steadily since marking all-time lows in late July. After reaching 1.835%, treasuries hovered near the level for a few days before turning lower again. The 10-yr yield had declined to 1.650% over the course of this week before today's selling put an end to the streak and lifted the 10-yr to 1.678%. Weekly Review: FOMC Minutes Highlight Slow Week On Monday, equities endured a day of lackluster action headlined by thin volume. After reaching lows during the first hour of trade, stocks staged a slow, session-long recovery. As a result, the major indices ended flat. Coventry Health Care (CVH 41.74, -0.13) as it surged 20.3% after being acquired by Aetna (AET 38.72, -0.58) in a $7.3 billion deal. Tuesday's session got off to a strong start but stocks could not hold their gains into the afternoon. The S&P 500 briefly touched a 4-year high before retreating to session lows. Total volume was better than what has been seen in recent days, but remained well below average. The Dow underperformed and finished lower by 0.5% while the S&P 500 shed 0.4%. European financials outperformed as Deutsche Bank (DB 34.05, -0.29) gained 4.2%. On Wednesday, equities spent the majority of the session in the red. After a lower open, stocks traded in a tight range until the release of FOMC minutes, which indicated that the Federal Reserve could provide additional easing if general economic conditions deteriorate further. After breaking through the unchanged line, stocks could not push much higher as they registered a flat close. The Nasdaq outperformed and ended higher by 0.2%. Dell (DELL 11.26, +0.02) slid 5.4% after delivering mixed earnings. Thursday opened slightly lower and equities spent the remainder of the session in negative territory. July home sales were reported at an annualized rate of 372,000. Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims data before the open came in a little worse than expected, as the reading increased to 372,000 from the 368,000 observed in the prior week. United States Steel (X 20.81, -0.38) slid 7.0% after Dahlman Rose downgraded the steel sector. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1900/1048. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1507/921. |
Commodities
Nat gas suffered a 3.57% loss and cotton suffered a 2.07% loss...
Treasuries
Not much movements in the treasures on friday... but the yield curve is really getting bad to worse...
Week 34
Market Summary
On the weekly note, the week finished DOWN, in line with my expectation. Major news were the speculation of QE3, and whether will it materialize? How long is the QE gonna take and How MUCH is the QE gonna be? This market is really getting addicted to free money given by the Fed... If QE doesn't materialize, I reckon... There's gonna be some serious cold turkey...
Technical Updates
On the Weekly TA, it seems that having a hanging man at the resistance is going to render the market to sideways for a while... especially next Thurs will be the jackson hole... We'll never know what's gonna happen there next sat.
Commentaries
Weekly Wrap
Durable goods orders were reported this morning, showing an increase in July by 4.2%, which was better than the 2.5% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. This comes after the prior month's reading was revised up from 1.3% to 1.6%. Excluding transportation related items, durable goods orders decreased in July by 0.4%, which is worse than the 0.6% increase that had been broadly anticipated. The prior month's reading was revised from -1.4% to -2.2%.
Telecom was the top performing sector as major players made considerable advances. Verizon (VZ 43.17, +0.92) advanced by 2.2% while Sprint Nextel (S 4.88, +0.10) and Frontier Communications (FTR 4.63, +0.07) ended higher by 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively.
The healthcare space also outperformed with two major names making headlines. Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI 83.31, +4.68) gained 6.0% after its generic substitute for the Lidoderm pain patch was approved. Lidoderm's original manufacturer Endo Health (ENDP 32.17, +0.29) rose by 0.3%. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly (LLY 43.86, +1.46) climbed 3.4% after announcing the results of its clinical trials focused on patients with Alzheimer's disease. Even though the trials did not meet the top goals, the company highlighted some positive outcomes.
In the utilities sector, Black Hills (BKH 33.42, +2.41) surged 7.8% after the company sold its Williston Basin oil and gas assets for $243 million. Peers MDU Resources Group (MDU 22.07, +0.31) and AES Corporation (AES 11.51, +0.13) added 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively.
Major financials traded mostly in-line with the broader market. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 15.13, +0.08) gained 0.5%. American Express (AXP 57.49, +1.07) and Goldman Sachs (GS 104.96, +0.88) were the top performers as they closed higher by 1.9% and 0.9%, respectively. However, European financials did not share the optimism as Barclays (BCS 11.86, -0.19) slipped 1.6% and UBS (UBS 11.20, -0.10) slid 0.9%.
Two names managed impressive reversals off lows brought on by disappointing earnings. After being down more than 4.0% in pre-market, Salesforce (CRM 148.54, +1.77) rallied by nearly 6.0% after reporting an earnings beat and in-line revenues. Autodesk (ADSK 30.13, -5.58) also saw a significant reversal. The early weakness was brought on by a disappointing quarterly report which showed a miss on earnings and revenues as well as downside guidance. Shares of the technology company have rallied more than 7.0% off lows but the stock ended down by 15.6%.
The euro was lower today but up on the week, after a weeklong rally took the common currency from 1.2295 to 1.2560. The euro began showing weakness in the early part of the session, but the rate cap rumor made rounds just ahead of the European close and led to an initial pop in the currency. The talks were viewed as risk-positive and lifted the euro to 1.2560 before fading to 1.2510.
Treasury yields had been rising steadily since marking all-time lows in late July. After reaching 1.835%, treasuries hovered near the level for a few days before turning lower again. The 10-yr yield had declined to 1.650% over the course of this week before today's selling put an end to the streak and lifted the 10-yr to 1.678%.
Weekly Review: FOMC Minutes Highlight Slow Week
On Monday, equities endured a day of lackluster action headlined by thin volume. After reaching lows during the first hour of trade, stocks staged a slow, session-long recovery. As a result, the major indices ended flat. Coventry Health Care (CVH 41.74, -0.13) as it surged 20.3% after being acquired by Aetna (AET 38.72, -0.58) in a $7.3 billion deal.
Tuesday's session got off to a strong start but stocks could not hold their gains into the afternoon. The S&P 500 briefly touched a 4-year high before retreating to session lows. Total volume was better than what has been seen in recent days, but remained well below average. The Dow underperformed and finished lower by 0.5% while the S&P 500 shed 0.4%. European financials outperformed as Deutsche Bank (DB 34.05, -0.29) gained 4.2%.
On Wednesday, equities spent the majority of the session in the red. After a lower open, stocks traded in a tight range until the release of FOMC minutes, which indicated that the Federal Reserve could provide additional easing if general economic conditions deteriorate further. After breaking through the unchanged line, stocks could not push much higher as they registered a flat close. The Nasdaq outperformed and ended higher by 0.2%. Dell (DELL 11.26, +0.02) slid 5.4% after delivering mixed earnings.
Thursday opened slightly lower and equities spent the remainder of the session in negative territory. July home sales were reported at an annualized rate of 372,000. Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims data before the open came in a little worse than expected, as the reading increased to 372,000 from the 368,000 observed in the prior week. United States Steel (X 20.81, -0.38) slid 7.0% after Dahlman Rose downgraded the steel sector.
Dow +100.51 at 13163.08, Nasdaq +16.39 at 3069.79, S&P +9.05 at 1411.13
After beginning the session in the red, stocks rallied after rumors suggested the European Central Bank is considering setting a yield band target as part of the new bond buying program. The news broke 15 minutes before the European close and caused a 50 pip spike in the euro as well as a rise to session highs by the major indices. The euro ended up giving up those gains, while U.S. stocks managed to build on the strength. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 closed higher by 0.7% on below average volume.
Durable goods orders were reported this morning, showing an increase in July by 4.2%, which was better than the 2.5% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. This comes after the prior month's reading was revised up from 1.3% to 1.6%. Excluding transportation related items, durable goods orders decreased in July by 0.4%, which is worse than the 0.6% increase that had been broadly anticipated. The prior month's reading was revised from -1.4% to -2.2%.
Telecom was the top performing sector as major players made considerable advances. Verizon (VZ 43.17, +0.92) advanced by 2.2% while Sprint Nextel (S 4.88, +0.10) and Frontier Communications (FTR 4.63, +0.07) ended higher by 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively.
The healthcare space also outperformed with two major names making headlines. Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI 83.31, +4.68) gained 6.0% after its generic substitute for the Lidoderm pain patch was approved. Lidoderm's original manufacturer Endo Health (ENDP 32.17, +0.29) rose by 0.3%. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly (LLY 43.86, +1.46) climbed 3.4% after announcing the results of its clinical trials focused on patients with Alzheimer's disease. Even though the trials did not meet the top goals, the company highlighted some positive outcomes.
In the utilities sector, Black Hills (BKH 33.42, +2.41) surged 7.8% after the company sold its Williston Basin oil and gas assets for $243 million. Peers MDU Resources Group (MDU 22.07, +0.31) and AES Corporation (AES 11.51, +0.13) added 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively.
Major financials traded mostly in-line with the broader market. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 15.13, +0.08) gained 0.5%. American Express (AXP 57.49, +1.07) and Goldman Sachs (GS 104.96, +0.88) were the top performers as they closed higher by 1.9% and 0.9%, respectively. However, European financials did not share the optimism as Barclays (BCS 11.86, -0.19) slipped 1.6% and UBS (UBS 11.20, -0.10) slid 0.9%.
Two names managed impressive reversals off lows brought on by disappointing earnings. After being down more than 4.0% in pre-market, Salesforce (CRM 148.54, +1.77) rallied by nearly 6.0% after reporting an earnings beat and in-line revenues. Autodesk (ADSK 30.13, -5.58) also saw a significant reversal. The early weakness was brought on by a disappointing quarterly report which showed a miss on earnings and revenues as well as downside guidance. Shares of the technology company have rallied more than 7.0% off lows but the stock ended down by 15.6%.
The euro was lower today but up on the week, after a weeklong rally took the common currency from 1.2295 to 1.2560. The euro began showing weakness in the early part of the session, but the rate cap rumor made rounds just ahead of the European close and led to an initial pop in the currency. The talks were viewed as risk-positive and lifted the euro to 1.2560 before fading to 1.2510.
Treasury yields had been rising steadily since marking all-time lows in late July. After reaching 1.835%, treasuries hovered near the level for a few days before turning lower again. The 10-yr yield had declined to 1.650% over the course of this week before today's selling put an end to the streak and lifted the 10-yr to 1.678%.
Weekly Review: FOMC Minutes Highlight Slow Week
On Monday, equities endured a day of lackluster action headlined by thin volume. After reaching lows during the first hour of trade, stocks staged a slow, session-long recovery. As a result, the major indices ended flat. Coventry Health Care (CVH 41.74, -0.13) as it surged 20.3% after being acquired by Aetna (AET 38.72, -0.58) in a $7.3 billion deal.
Tuesday's session got off to a strong start but stocks could not hold their gains into the afternoon. The S&P 500 briefly touched a 4-year high before retreating to session lows. Total volume was better than what has been seen in recent days, but remained well below average. The Dow underperformed and finished lower by 0.5% while the S&P 500 shed 0.4%. European financials outperformed as Deutsche Bank (DB 34.05, -0.29) gained 4.2%.
On Wednesday, equities spent the majority of the session in the red. After a lower open, stocks traded in a tight range until the release of FOMC minutes, which indicated that the Federal Reserve could provide additional easing if general economic conditions deteriorate further. After breaking through the unchanged line, stocks could not push much higher as they registered a flat close. The Nasdaq outperformed and ended higher by 0.2%. Dell (DELL 11.26, +0.02) slid 5.4% after delivering mixed earnings.
Thursday opened slightly lower and equities spent the remainder of the session in negative territory. July home sales were reported at an annualized rate of 372,000. Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims data before the open came in a little worse than expected, as the reading increased to 372,000 from the 368,000 observed in the prior week. United States Steel (X 20.81, -0.38) slid 7.0% after Dahlman Rose downgraded the steel sector.
| Index | Started Week | Ended Week | Change | % Change | YTD % |
| DJIA | 13275.20 | 13157.97 | -117.23 | -0.9 | 7.7 |
| Nasdaq | 3076.59 | 3069.79 | -6.80 | -0.2 | 17.8 |
| S&P 500 | 1418.16 | 1411.13 | -7.03 | -0.5 | 12.2 |
| Russell 2000 | 819.89 | 809.19 | -10.70 | -1.3 | 9.2 |
Next Week in View
Next week is going to be really really funky.... Thursday will be the jackson hole symposium, friday, Bernanke is going to speak, Sat... Draghi....... It's gonna be a tough call... but i'm expecting the market to be really flat next week, on lower volumes... until we see some clearer direction coming out from the jackson hole...
Market Call: 27 Aug
Date: FLAT(to the downside)
Accuracy: 9/19
Accuracy(WEEKLY): 1/2
Market Call(Weekly): FLAT(to the upside)
Date: Week 34
Accuracy: 9/19
Accuracy(WEEKLY): 1/2
