5 Sep 2013 AMC
Market Summary
European Markets Closing Prices
European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
·
UK's FTSE: + 0.9%
·
Germany's DAX: + 0.5%
·
France's CAC: + 0.7%
·
Spain's IBEX: + 0.7%
·
Portugal's PSI: + 0.9%
·
Italy's MIB Index: + 0.8%
·
Irish Ovrl Index: + 1.3%
·
Greece ATHEX Composite: + 0.9%
Before Market Opens
The
S&P 500 futures continue to hover near their flat line.
Markets across Asia ended mostly higher, rallying in response to yesterday's gains on Wall Street. India's Sensex (+2.1%) was the leader after new Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan outlined steps to address the weak rupee. His efforts include plans to attract more funds from overseas, including, but not limited to, introducing a swap window to banks for dollar deposits by non-resident Indians. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan opined overnight, opting to keep policy unchanged. The central bank did however raise its economic forecast, noting a pickup in employment and acceleration in inflation. Other central bank inaction saw Bank Negara Malaysia keep its key rate unchanged at 3.00%. Data from the region saw Australia post a surprise trade deficit (-$0.77 billion actual versus $0.10 billion expected), Taiwan's inflation rate fall to -0.8% year-over-year (-0.3% expected), the Philippines' inflation rate slip to 2.1% year-over-year (2.5% expected), and Thai consumer confidence slip to 79.3 (80.3 previous).
Markets across Asia ended mostly higher, rallying in response to yesterday's gains on Wall Street. India's Sensex (+2.1%) was the leader after new Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan outlined steps to address the weak rupee. His efforts include plans to attract more funds from overseas, including, but not limited to, introducing a swap window to banks for dollar deposits by non-resident Indians. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan opined overnight, opting to keep policy unchanged. The central bank did however raise its economic forecast, noting a pickup in employment and acceleration in inflation. Other central bank inaction saw Bank Negara Malaysia keep its key rate unchanged at 3.00%. Data from the region saw Australia post a surprise trade deficit (-$0.77 billion actual versus $0.10 billion expected), Taiwan's inflation rate fall to -0.8% year-over-year (-0.3% expected), the Philippines' inflation rate slip to 2.1% year-over-year (2.5% expected), and Thai consumer confidence slip to 79.3 (80.3 previous).
·
In
Japan, the Nikkei added 0.1%
as shares rallied for a fourth session. Honda Motor rallied 2.3% after posting
solid sales for the month of August. Elsewhere, Tokyo Steel Manufacturing
jumped 8% after receiving a tier 1 upgrade.
·
Hong
Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.2%
as shares rallied for the fifth time in six days. Property developer Sunac
China Holdings tumbled 5.7% after paying a record amount for land in China.
·
In
China, the Shanghai Composite
slipped 0.2% as commodity-related names paced the decline. Jiangxi Copper shed
1.7% and Zhongjin Gold sank 2.8%.
Major
European indices sport modest gains after both the European Central Bank and
the Bank of England left their key interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, as
expected. In addition, the Bank of England kept its purchase program at GBP375
billion. Economic data was limited as German factory orders fell 2.7%
month-over-month (-1.0% expected, 5.0% prior) and French unemployment rate
ticked up to a 13-year high of 10.9% from 10.8%.
·
In
Germany, the DAX holds a gain
of 0.5% as exporters provide leadership. BMW is higher by 4.5% and Volkswagen
trades up 0.9%. On the downside, software company SAP is the weakest performer,
down 1.8%.
·
Great
Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.6%
as financials display strength. Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Standard
Chartered are all up between 1.9% and 2.8%. Energy companies are among the
laggards with Royal Dutch Shell and Tullow Oil down 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively.
·
France's CAC trades up 0.7% with carmaker Renault leading
the way with a gain of 5.1%. On the downside, manufacturer of industrial
equipment Alstom trades lower by 2.5%.
Market Internals
Market Internals -Technical-
The Nasdaq closed up 10 (+0.27%) at 3659, the S&P 500 closed up 2 (+0.12%) at 1655, and the Dow closed up 7 (+0.04%) at 14937. Action came on slightly below average volume (NYSE 630 mln vs. avg. of 692; NASDAQ 1506 mln vs. avg. of 1534), with mixed advancers/decliners (NYSE 1451/1625, NASDAQ 1504/984) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 92/48, NASDAQ 117/21).
Relative Strength:
India-INP +3.89%, Russia-RSX +2.89%, Chile-ECH +2.76%, Social Media-SOCL +2.73%, Cocoa-NIB +2.60%, BRICs-EEB +2.01%, Latin America 40-ILF +1.81%, Clean Energy-PBW +1.75%, Coal-KOL +1.56%, Shipping-SEA +1.49%.
Relative Weakness:
Poland-EPOL -4.54%, Junior Gold Miners-GDXJ -4.52%, Natural Gas-UNG -2.69%, Volatility-VXX -2.02%, Gold-GLD -1.83%, Corn-CORN -1.63%, Sweden-EWD -1.00%, Swiss Franc-FXF -0.94%, Mexico-EWW -0.83%, Egypt-EGPT -0.73%.
Leaders and Laggards
Technical Updates
Briefing's Commentaries
Closing Market Summary: Stocks Rise Ahead of August Jobs Report
The S&P 500 added 0.1% to register its third consecutive advance. Although stocks finished in positive territory, their gains were capped by Treasury yields hitting their highest levels since July 2011.
Treasuries began displaying weakness overnight as the Asian session got underway. The selling paused briefly during U.S. pre-market action before a slate of better-than-expected economic data lent support to the belief that the Federal Reserve would begin slowing the pace of its asset purchases at the upcoming September 17/18 policy meeting. With the August jobs report scheduled to be released tomorrow, the recent behavior of the Treasury market suggests participants are expecting a strong nonfarm payrolls number (Briefing.com consensus 177,000). The benchmark 10-yr yield rose eight basis points to 2.98%.
Interest rates have been on the rise throughout the quarter, and that has pressured the most rate-sensitive sectors. Consumer staples (-0.1%), telecom services (-0.8%), and utilities (-0.4%) finished at the bottom of today's leaderboard, which widened their third quarter losses. Since the start of July, the three sectors are down 0.5%, 6.2%, and 3.2%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the last countercyclical group, health care, rose 0.2% to maintain its quarter-to-date gain of 5.1%. The sector has been able to outperform other defensive groups thanks to big gains in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 201.92, +0.54) is higher by 16.1% this quarter.
Cyclical sectors were responsible for today's advance as energy (+0.3%), industrials (+0.3%), and materials (+0.3%) ended in the lead. Notably, the industrial sector received support from transportation companies as the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 0.6%.
Transports were unperturbed by the increase in their main input cost with crude oil climbing 1.0% to $108.35 per barrel.
Similar to yesterday, financials led early, but surrendered their top spot during afternoon action. Most majors finished ahead of the broader market while real estate investment trusts were pressured by the elevated rates. The Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ 63.81, -0.68) lost 1.1%.
Participation in today's session was on the light side with only 630 million shares changing hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. This was understandable given the ongoing Rosh Hashanah holiday.
This morning was busy in terms of economic data. The ADP Employment Change report estimates 176,000 private sector jobs were created in August. That was pretty much in-line with expectations, but down slightly from the 198,000 created in July.
Initial claims for the week ending August 31 dropped by 9,000 to 323,000 (Briefing.com consensus 333,000). That brought the 4-week moving average for this series to 328,500, which is the lowest level since October 2007. Continuing claims for the week ending August 24 fell by 43,000 to 2.951 million (Briefing.com consensus 2.977 million). That lowered the 4-week moving average by 18,000 to 2.98 million.
Second quarter productivity was revised up to 2.3% from 0.9% while unit labor costs were revised down to 0.0% from 1.4%. The revisions reflect the improved output in the second quarter and the understanding that corporate profits continue to be helped by labor costs being held in check.
The August ISM Non-manufacturing Index jumped to 58.6 from 56.0. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to fall to 54.5. The index is at its highest point since it was reformulated in January 2008. When compared to the older methodology, the index is at its highest point since December 2005.
Factory orders fell 2.4% in July after increasing an upwardly revised 1.6% (from 1.5%) in June. The consensus expected factory orders to fall 3.7%. Durable goods orders were revised down modestly from -7.3% in the advance release to -7.4%. The underlying trends were essentially unchanged from the advance report. As expected, most of the decline in durable goods orders came from a 19.4% drop in transportation orders. Orders of defense and nondefense aircraft fell an unrevised 44.3%.
Tomorrow's focus will be on jobs with the August nonfarm payrolls, nonfarm private payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, and average workweek all set to be reported at 8:30 ET.
Commodities
Closing Commodities: Crude Oil Rises
1.1%, Gold Declines
·
Oct crude oil advanced
for the second time this week, gaining support from this morning's bullish
economic and inventory data. The August ISM Non-manufacturing Index jumped to
58.6 from 56.0, its highest level since it was reformulated in January 2008. In
addition, crude oil inventories for the week ending Aug 30 showed a draw of
1.836 mln barrels when a draw of 1.3-2.0 mln barrels was expected. The energy
component lifted off its session low of $107.23 per barrel and rose as high as
$108.54 per barrel. It eventually settled 1.1% higher at $108.40 per barrel.
·
Natural gas, on the
other hand, sold off sharply into negative territory following inventory data
that showed a build of 58 bcf when a smaller build of 54 bcf was anticipated.
It brushed a session low of $3.57 per MMBtu after trading as high as $3.72 per
MMBtu in early morning pit trade. It settled with a 2.7% loss at $3.58 per
MMBtu.
·
Precious metals extended
yesterday's losses as the dollar index advanced following the strong economic
data released this morning.
·
Dec gold brushed a
session high of $1400.00 per ounce at pit trade open but quickly slipped into
negative territory. Unable to gain much momentum, it settled 1.3% lower at
$1372.50 per ounce.
·
Dec silver also
retreated into the red after trading as high as $23.65 per ounce in early
morning floor action. It managed to inch higher off of its session low of
$23.04 and trimmed losses to 0.8% as it closed at $23.25 per ounce.
NYMEX Energy Closing Prices
·
Oct
crude oil rose $1.21 to
$108.40/barrel
o Crude oil rose today as it gained support on
this morning's bullish economic data and inventories release. The August ISM
Non-manufacturing Index jumped to 58.6 from 56.0, its highest point since it
was reformulated in Jan 2008. In addition, the Dept. of Energy reported that
for the week ending Aug 30, crude oil inventories had a draw of 1.836 mln
barrels when a draw of 1.3-2.0 mln barrels was anticipated. The energy
component lifted from its session low of $107.23 and advanced as high as
$108.54. It eventually settled with a 1.1% gain.
·
Oct
natural gas fell 10 cents to
$3.58/MMBtu
o Natural gas, however, slid into negative
territory on inventory data that showed a build of 58 bcf when a build of 54
bcf was anticipated. It traded as high as $3.72 earlier in the session but
settled just above its session low of $3.57, booking a loss of 2.7%.
·
Oct
heating oil settled unchanged at
$3.14/gallon
·
Oct
RBOB gasoline fell 2 cents to
$2.84/gallon
COMEX Metals Closing Prices
·
Dec
gold fell $17.60 to
$1372.50/ounce
o Gold extended yesterday's losses as strong
economic data gave a boost to the dollar index. The yellow metal brushed a
session high of $1400.00 at pit trade open but quickly slipped into negative
territory. Unable to gain much momentum, it settled with a 1.3% loss.
·
Dec
silver fell $0.18 to
$23.25/ounce
o Silver also retreated into the red after trading
as high as $23.65 in early morning floor action. It managed to inch higher off
its session low of $23.04 and settled with a 0.8% loss.
·
Dec
copper rose 1 cent to
$3.25/lbs
CBOT
Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices
·
Dec
corn fell 8 cents to
$4.61/bushel
·
Dec
wheat fell 7 cents to
$6.39/bushel
·
Nov
soybeans rose 16 cents to
$13.68/bushel
·
Oct
ethanol settled unchanged at
$1.88/gallon
·
Nov
sugar (#16 (U.S.)) fell 0.10
of a penny to 21.02 cents/lbs
DoE Inventory Data
Dept of Energy reports that for the week ending Aug 30:
Dept of Energy reports that for the week ending Aug 30:
·
Crude oil inventories
had a draw of 1.836 mln (consensus called for a draw of 1.3-2.0 mln)
·
Gasoline inventories had
a draw of 1.827 mln (consensus called for a draw of 0.3-0.7 mln)
·
Distillate inventories
had a build of 0.549 mln (consensus called for a build of 0.6 mln)
·
Change in refinery
utilization is at +0.5%
Treasuries
Treasuries Remain Under Pressure: 10-yr: -22/32..2.982%..USD/JPY: 100.10..EUR/USD: 1.3120
Treasuries finished sharply lower as sellers remained in control for a sixth session. Maturities across the complex have been under significant pressure since August 27, the day when Secretary of State John Kerry hinted a conflict with Syria was becoming more likely. Yields across the most of the curve have surged roughly 30 bps over that time with a good portion of the rise coming today as strong economic data has many betting on Fed tapering at the September 17/18 meeting. ISM Services jumped to 58.6 (54.5 expected), its best reading since January 2008, while both factory orders and unit labor costs exceeded estimates. Also impressive was the initial and continuing claims data, which showed further improvement. Heavy selling followed this morning's data, running yields to their highest levels since July 2011. An almost 10 bp surge ran the 5-yr yield to 1.836% while a jump of more than 8 bps caused the 10-yr yield to settle at 2.797%. The wings of the curve trailed behind, but still managed to post notable advances. The 2-yr yield ticked up 4.5 bps to 0.522%, and the 30-yr added 8 bps to end at 3.878%. Selling swung the yield curve steeper, causing the 2-10-yr spread to widen to 245.5 bps.Meanwhile, precious metals were pressured as gold sank $20 to $1370 and silver shed $0.15 to near $22.25. Friday's data is the most anticipated of the week as nonfarm payrolls, nonfarm private payrolls, the unemployment rate, hourly earnings, and the average workweek (8:30) are released. Chicago's Evans will be in Greenville, SC speaking at the AgFirst Farm Credit Bank 2013 Summit (8), and KC's George will be in Omaha, NE discussing "The Federal Reserve and the Economy" (13:30).
Next Day In View
Economic Commentary
Economic Data Summary:
·
August Challenger Jobs
Report 56.5% vs Briefing.com consensus of ; July was 2.3%
·
August
ADP Employment Report 176K vs Briefing.com consensus of 180K; July was 200K
o Goods-producing 11,000
o Service-providing 165,000
·
Weekly
Initial Cliams 323K vs Briefing.com consensus of 333K; Last Week was revised to
332K from 331K
·
Weekly Continuing Claims
2.951 M vs Briefing.com consensus of 2.977 M ; Last Week was revised to 2.994 M
from 2.898 M
o The initial claims level fell to 323,000 for the
week ending August 31 from a slightly upwardly revised 332,000 (from 331,000)
for the week ending August 24. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial
claims level to increase to 333,000.
·
Q2 Productivity-Rev 2.3%
vs Briefing.com consensus of 1.5%; First Quarter was 0.9%
o . As expected from the second estimate to Q2
2013 GDP, output levels were revised higher, up from 2.1% to 3.7%. That was the
largest output gain since increasing 4.1% in Q3 2011. Hours worked were
modestly revised down to 1.4% from an originally reported 1.7% gain.
·
Q2 Unit Labor Costs 0.0%
vs Briefing.com consensus of 1.0%; First Quarter was 1.4%
·
July
Factory Orders -2.4% vs Briefing.com consensus of -3.7%; June was revised to
1.6% from 1.5%
o Durable goods orders were revised down modestly
from -7.3% in the advance release to -7.4%. The underlying trends were
essentially unchanged from the advance report.As expected, most of the decline
in durable goods orders came from a 19.4% drop in transportation orders. Orders
of defense and nondefense aircraft fell an unrevised 44.3%.
·
August
ISM Services 58.6 vs Briefing.com consensus of 54.5; July was 56.0
o When compared to the older methodology, the
index is at its highest point since December 2005. Business activity improved
as the related index increased to 62.2 in August from 60.4. More importantly,
the gains reported in the orders data should keep activity levels solidly
entrenched for future growth.
Fed/Treasury Events
Summary:
·
Fed's Kocherlakota (not
a voting FOMC member, dovish) said inflation should remain below 2% for some
time; he also indicated last night that the US economy needs more
accommodation.
Upcoming Economic Data:
·
August
Nonfarm Payrolls due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 177K; July
was 162K)
·
August
Nonfarm Private Payrolls due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of
180K; July was 161K)
·
August Unemployment Rate
due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 7.4%; July was 7.4%)
·
August Hourly Earnings
due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; July was -0.1%)
·
August Average Workweek
due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 34.5; July was 34.4)
Upcoming Fed/Treasury
Events:
·
Chicago Fed President
Charlie Evans (voting FOMC member, dovish) to speak tomorrow at 8:00
·
Kansas City Fed
President Esther George (voting FOMC member, dissenter, hawkish) to speak
tomorrow at 13:30
Other International
Events of Interest
·
The Bank of Japan
maintained its current policy stance and upgraded its economic assessment after
not making any changes to the outlook last month. Separately, the foreign bonds
buying report indicated net sales in the amount of JPY530.90 billion
(-JPY316.40 billion previous).
·
The
European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, as
expected.
·
The
Bank of England made no changes to its policy stance, keeping its key rate and
the purchase program at their respective 0.5% and GBP375 billion, as expected.
Seasonal Factors Play a Role in the Huge Jump in Motor Vehicle Sales in August
Motor vehicle sales surged past the 16.0 mln SAAR mark in August, increasing from 15.8 mln SAAR in July to 16.1 mln SAAR. That is the first time sales have surpassed 16.0 mln SAAR since November 2007. There were some unusual seasonal patterns that boosted sales in August. Instead of the typical four weekends in a month, there were five weekends in August 2013. As an added bonus, sales from the Labor Day holiday were also included in these sales figures. It is unknown exactly how many units were sold in August because of these seasonal advantages, but we suspect there will be a significant pullback in September. Domestic motor vehicle sales edged up to 12.6 mln SAAR in August from 12.3 mln SAAR in July. All of the gain came from stronger truck sales. Domestic truck sales increased from 6.7 mln SAAR in July to 7.0 mln SAAR in August. Domestic car sales were virtually unchanged at 5.6 mln SAAR. Import sales were nearly unchanged at 3.5 mln SAAR in August. Imported auto sales increased to 2.4 mln SAAR from 2.3 mln SAAR while truck sales fell from 1.2 mln SAAR in July to 1.1 mln SAAR in August.
Year-over-year, motor vehicle sales rose 17% in August. That was the biggest year-over-year gain since August 2012 and the most vehicles sold in the month of August since August 2003. As mentioned before, the seasonal issues were a cause for the vast improvement in sales. Nearly all of the major motor vehicle manufacturers saw double-digit year-over-year sales growth in August. Only Volkswagen (+4%) and Hyundai-Kia (+6%) failed to break that barrier. Even with the double-digit gains, the Big Three all lost market share in August. Sales at General Motors (GM) were up 15% while sales at Ford (F) and Chrysler Group both increased 12%. Led by Honda (HMC, +27%), Japanese auto makers all exceeded 20% y/y gains. That included a 23% increase for Toyota (TM) and a 22% gain for Nissan. Overall, sales are up 10% year-to-date and are on a solid road to recovery. To put the current sales numbers into perspective, sales through August have already topped the total number of motor vehicles sold in 2009.
Some cos that beat
August Same-Store Sales estimates include:
·
Drugstore
names Walgreen's (WAG)
and Rite Aid (RAD) reported better-than-expected monthly sales for the
fourth consecutive month. WAG reported comps of 4.8% vs 3.4%
consensus but reported prelim Q4 sales below consensus. The stock opened 1%
higher and is now ~1.8% up on the day. RAD reported comps of
1.1% vs 0.5% consensus and prelim Q2 sales above consnesus. The stock opened
1.4% higher and is now up~2%.
·
Discount
retailer Stein Mart (SMRT)
topped estimates for the fourth consecutive month. SMRT reported
comps of 3.8% vs 3% consensus. The stock opened 1% and is now ~3% higher. FRED reported
flat comps (in-line with consensus and recently updated guidance). The stock
opened flat and is now modestly higher. PSMT has not reported Aug sales
yet but these results bode well for the name (has topped monthly ests for past
three months).
·
Cato (CATO)
reported comps of -2% vs -3% consensus (missed ests last month). The stock
opened 0.3% higher and is still near that level.
·
Buckle (BKE)
reported comps of 1% vs 0.6% consensus (as usual co did not issue
guidance/commentary). The stock is nearly unchanged on the day.
·
Costco (COST)
reported comps of 4% vs 3.8% consensus and prelim qtrly sales below consensus
(as usual no commentary). The stock opened 1.3% higher and is now ~2.7%.
Missed August Same-Store
Sales estimates:
·
L Brands (LTD)
reported comps of 2% vs 2.1% consensus. The stock opened slightly lower but is
now still in the red.
On other news....
The
S&P 500 Financial Index continues to float higher as news remains extremely
light. The Index has been floating higher in the 260 area as it recovers a
portion of its July, August losses. Macro level events with Syria and the Fed
continue to dominate market attention. That should continue into September with
tapering, debt ceiling, German elections, and Syria dominating headlines.
But market participants will get a glimpse of how Q3 is progressing for the banks next week when the Barclay's Financial Services conference is held from September 9-11. Comments on the housing market performance and impact on the quarter will be a key topic as markets continue to digest the higher rates. Also of interest will be the impact on net interest margin. The list of participants is as follows:
But market participants will get a glimpse of how Q3 is progressing for the banks next week when the Barclay's Financial Services conference is held from September 9-11. Comments on the housing market performance and impact on the quarter will be a key topic as markets continue to digest the higher rates. Also of interest will be the impact on net interest margin. The list of participants is as follows:
·
Monday,
September 9: WFC, JPM, BLK,
VNO, LM, PNC, WAC, ICE, SLM, MTB, and SNV;
·
Tuesday,
September 10: MTG, ETFC, STI, EV,
AMTD, CMA, BMO, CIT, MAC, RF, CBOE, BBT, FITB, CME, ZION, BK, MS, COF, and
PMT;
·
Wednesday,
September 11: NTRS, AXP, FXCM,
and BAC.
News of Note
·
JPMorgan Chase (JPM:
Reuters report that company will stop making student loans.
·
AFLAC (AFL) at
Scotiabank conference says if the Dollar/Yen exchange rate averages 100; it
sees FY13 EPS at ~$6.06 versus $6.21 Capital IQ consensus.
·
NYSE Euronext (NYSE)
reports trading volumes for August increased 8.6% YoY, down 8.9% sequentially
(42.39) Co reports trading volumes for its global derivatives and cash equities
exchanges for August 2013.
Currencies
Dollar Gains for Sixth Time in Past
Seven Sessions: 10-yr: -21/32..2.981%..USD/JPY: 100.18..EUR/USD: 1.3116
The Dollar Index holds on session highs near 82.65, and is on track to close at a one and a half-month high. Today's bid has run the Index above both its 50- and 100-day moving averages, and has action on track to post the sixth gain in the past seven sessions. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.
The Dollar Index holds on session highs near 82.65, and is on track to close at a one and a half-month high. Today's bid has run the Index above both its 50- and 100-day moving averages, and has action on track to post the sixth gain in the past seven sessions. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.
·
EURUSD is -85 pips at 1.3115 after the ECB held
its key rate unchanged at 0.50%. Today's selling has dropped the
single currency below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and comes
after dovish commentary from ECB head Mario Draghi as he left the door
open for another rate cut or LTRO program. The 1.3050 level is setting
up as key support. Germany's industrial production and trade balance figures
are due out tomorrow.
·
GBPUSD is -35 pips at 1.5585 as trade holds just off
the lows. Today, the Bank of England held both its benchmark interest
rate and asset purchase program unchanged at 0.50% and GBP375 bln,
respectively. Sterling climbed to session highs above 1.5650, but
sellers quickly emerged in defense of the August highs. The 1.5500 area will be
tracked closely as support is helped by the 200-day moving average. British
data includes consumer inflation expectations, manufacturing production, and
the trade balance.
·
USDCHF is +90 pips at .9445 as trade busts out to
a seven-week high. Bulls have their sights set on retaking the
.9500 level as doing so sets up a potential test of the July highs near
.9700/.9750. Switzerland's CPI foreign currency reserves are scheduled for
release.
·
USDJPY is +35 pips at 100.10 after the Bank of
Japan took no action at today's meeting. The central back did
however raise its assessment of the economy, indicating employment and
inflation seem to be picking up. Today's advance has the pair on track
to close at its best level in six weeks, and has bulls looking to test the July
highs near 101.00.
·
AUDUSD is -45 pips at .9115 as sellers once again
stepped up to defend the .9200 level. Near-term interest will be focused on the
.9100 support area as the 50-day moving average lends a hand. Key support
remains near .8900, the three-year closing low.
·
USDCAD is +5 pips at 1.0500 amid a rather uneventful
session. Trade has seen a 40 pip range ahead of tomorrow's data dump.
Employment change, the unemployment rate, labor productivity, and Ivey PMI
cross the wires tomorrow.
Jason's Commentaries
The market did not react to the economic report coming last night. ADP met expectation, ISM non-manufacturing data was the highest since 2008. The market started with a bullish bias which quickly reversed at 945am ET and lost its initial gain. Afterwhich, the market remained sideways throughout the session. Energy was the main leader for the session last night while Utilities was the biggest laggard. The rest of the sectors remained flat for the session. While awaiting the non-farmpayrolls at 830am ET tonight, the market is likely to remained flat for the session. The job report will likely set track for the tapering act the Fed may have later this month. On other news, there are some major readjustments there will affect the financial sector like JP Morgan will stop offering education loans. However, the main mover will be the Nonfarm payrolls which will throw any other technicals out of the window. Treasuries yields hit a new high on tapering fears. Stay safe tonight =D
Market Call: DOWN
Date: 6 Sep 2013
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