11 Nov 2013 AMC- Market ended flat with lower volumes on Veteran's Day

11 Nov 2013 AMC- Market ended flat with lower volumes on Veteran's Day

Market Summary 

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

·         UK's FTSE: + 0.3%

·         Germany's DAX: + 0.3%

·         France's CAC: + 0.7%

·         Spain's IBEX: + 0.4%

·         Portugal's PSI: + 1.1%

·         Italy's MIB Index: + 0.8%

·         Irish Ovrl Index: + 0.7%

·         Greece ATHEX Composite: -0.3%

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50.
The S&P 500 futures are little changed.

Asian markets ended on a mixed note with indices in China and Japan registering gains. The session was generally quiet with participants awaiting tomorrow's conclusion of China's third plenum. The Middle Kingdom released a set of economic data over the weekend. CPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (0.2% expected, 0.8% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 3.2% (3.3% forecast, 3.1% last). Separately, PPI slipped 1.5% year-over-year (-1.4% consensus, -1.3% previous). Also of note, industrial production increased 10.3% year-over-year (10.0% forecast, 10.2% last), retail sales rose 13.3% year-over-year (13.4% expected, 13.3% prior), and fixed asset investment increased 20.1% year-over-year, as expected (20.2% last). Elsewhere, Japan's adjusted current account swung from a surplus of JPY350 billion to a deficit of JPY130 billion (deficit of JPY100 billion expected). In addition, bank lending rose 2.0% year-over-year (2.0% last) and the Economy Watchers Current Index slipped to 51.8 from 52.8 (54.2 forecast). Australia's home loans rose 4.4% month-over-month (4.0% expected, -4.0% last). Lastly, India's trade deficit widened to $10.56 billion from $6.76 billion (deficit of $9.60 billion expected). 

·         In Japan, the Nikkei closed higher by 1.3% as heavy industrials provided leadership. Kubota and Yokogawa Electric gained 4.9% and 6.4%, respectively. Exporters Olympus and Sharp ended among the laggards with losses close to 2.5% apiece. 

·         Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.4% as financials displayed strength. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China jumped 2.7% and Ping An Insurance gained 2.3%. Discretionary names were among the laggards as Belle International fell 2.0% and Li & Fung lost 0.8%. 

·         In China, the Shanghai Composite added 0.2% as growth-sensitive names displayed strength. China CNR Corp and Jinxi Axle both gained near 9.0% each. 

European indices sport modest gains with markets in Italy (+0.4%) and France (+0.5%) providing leadership. Among news of note, reports indicate six out of 23 members of the European Central Bank governing council were against last week's rate cut. Following last week's downgrade of France, Standard & Poor's lowered the rating on the European Financial Stability Facility by one notch to ‘AA' from ‘AA+.' Economic data was limited to Italy's industrial production, which ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (0.3% expected, -0.2% prior) while the year-over-year reading reflected a decline of 3.0% (-3.6% expected, -4.6% last). 

·         Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.3% with financials displaying strength. Aberdeen Asset Management and Royal Bank of Scotland hold respective gains of 4.2% and 3.2%. On the downside, British Sky Broadcasting lags with a loss of 9.5% after one of its competitors received soccer broadcasting rights. 

·         In Germany, the DAX trades up 0.2% as cyclical names outperform. Infineon Technologies is higher by 1.7% and SAP sports an advance of 0.6%. Deutsche Telekom is the weakest index performer, down 1.3%. 

·         In France, the CAC holds a gain of 0.5% as Bouygues leads with an advance of 2.5%. Utilities lag with Electricite de France and GDF Suez down 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. 

·         Italy's MIB is higher by 0.4% as Telecom Italia (+2.6%) and Fiat (+1.3%) pace the advance.

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-
The Dow closed up 21 (+0.14%) at 15783, the S&P 500 closed up 1 (+0.07%) at 1772, and the Nasdaq closed up 1 (+0.01%) at 3920. Action came on below average volume (NYSE 536 mln vs. avg. of 731; NASDAQ 1553 mln vs. avg. of 1763), with mixed advancers/decliners (NYSE 1585/1458, NASDAQ 1246/1293) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 130/35, NASDAQ 113/26). 

Relative Strength: 
Gasoline-UGA +2.19%, Clean Energy-PBW +2.13%, Corn-CORN +1.89%, Biotechnology-XBI +1.21%, Smart Grid Infrastructure-GRID +1.19%, China 25 Index-FXI +1.05%, Belgium-EWK +0.88%, Spain-EWP +0.79%, Sweden-EWD +0.74%, Germany-EWG +0.69%.

Relative Weakness: 
Turkey-TUR -2.97%, Wind Energy-FAN -2.47%, Cocoa-NIB -2.22%, Indonesia-IDX -1.99%, Chile-ECH -1.38%, Social Media-SOCL -1.22%, Copper Miners-COPX -1.05%, Russia-RSX -1.01%, Regional Banks-KRE -0.98%, Australia-EWA -0.93%.

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Closing Market Summary: With Bonds Away Equities Refuse to Play
The S&P 500 added just over a point (+1.28) after spending the entire session inside of a five-point range. Excluding the first 30 minutes of action, the benchmark index was confined to a two-point range as many participants elected to sit today's session out.

With the bond market closed for Veterans Day and no market-moving economic or company news, equity indices drifted near their flat lines throughout the session. Small caps outperformed the broader market, but the Russell 2000's gain was limited to just 0.1%.

Meanwhile, the S&P crept higher as six of ten sectors registered gains. Financials (+0.1%) and health care (+0.2%) paced the slight advance, but only the health care sector was able to end among the leaders.

The countercyclical group received support from drug makers amid news Shire (SHPG 135.33, +0.93) will acquire ViroPharma (VPHM 49.42, +10.04) for $50 per share, representing a 27.0% premium to Friday's closing price. Biotechnology climbed throughout the day, and theiShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 205.54, +1.36) advanced 0.7%.

Unlike health care, the remaining countercyclical sectors—consumer staples (-0.1%), utilities (+0.02%), and telecom services (-0.3%)—underperformed.

With regard to cyclical groups, financials ended in-line with the S&P while consumer discretionary (+0.2%), energy (+0.2%), and technology (+0.1%) eked out slim gains. On the downside, industrials (-0.03%) and materials (-0.1%) lagged throughout the day.

Momentum names traded in mixed fashion following last week's group-wide weakness. Facebook (FB 46.20, -1.33) and LinkedIn (LNKD 211.66, -3.51) registered respective losses of 2.8% and 1.6% while Priceline.com (PCLN 1096.50, +23.30) gained 2.2% and Tesla (TSLA 144.70, +6.75) rose 4.9%.

Trading volume was well below average as just over 530 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

There is no notable economic data on tomorrow's calendar.

·         Nasdaq +29.8% YTD

·         Russell 2000 +29.7% YTD

·         S&P 500 +24.2% YTD

·         DJIA +20.4% YTD

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Crude Rises 0.6%, Gold Slips 0.3%

• Dec crude oil lifted from its session low of $94.17 per barrel set in early morning pit trade and broke into positive territory. Strength came on a weaker dollar index and failed talks between Iran and six world powers on reaching a deal on the country's nuclear program. The energy component brushed a session high of $95.38 per barrel and settled with a 0.6% gain at $95.14 per barrel
• Dec natural gas oscillated between positive and negative territory today. It brushed a session low of $3.54 per MMBtu and eventually settled 0.6% higher at $3.58 per MMBtu
• Dec gold traded slightly lower today despite the weaker dollar index. It touched a session high of $1284.00 per ounce in early morning pit trade and eventually settled with a 0.3% loss at $1281.20 per ounce
• Dec silver spent most of today's floor trade trading just above the unchanged line. It slipped into the red in the last half hour of the session and settled at $21.28 per ounce, or 0.2% lower

NYMEX Energy Closing Prices

  Dec crude oil rose $0.56 to $95.14/barrel 

·         Crude oil lifted from its session low of $94.17 set in early morning pit trade and broke into positive territory, rising above the $95.00 level. Strength came on a weaker dollar index and failed talks between Iran and six world powers on reaching a deal on the country's nuclear program. The energy component touched a session high of $95.38 and settled with a 0.6% gain. 

  Dec natural gas rose 2 cents to $3.58/MMBtu 

·         Natural gas see-sawed between positive and negative territory today. It brushed a session low of $3.54 and eventually settled 0.6% higher. 

  Dec heating oil rose 2 cents to $2.89/gallon 

  Dec RBOB gasoline rose 5 cents to $2.60/gallon

CBOT Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices

·         Dec corn rose 9 cents to $4.35/bushel 

·         Dec wheat fell 1 cent to $6.47/bushel 

·         Jan soybeans rose 5 cents to $13.00/bushel 

·         Dec ethanol rose 3 cents to $1.71/gallon 

·         Jan sugar (#16 (U.S.)) fell 0.08 of a penny to 21.00 cents/lbs

COMEX Metals Closing Prices

Dec gold fell $3.40 to $1281.20/ounce 

• Gold traded slightly lower today despite a weaker dollar index. The yellow metal touched a session high of $1284.00 in early morning pit trade and eventually settled with a 0.3% loss. 

Dec silver fell $0.04 to $21.28/ounce 

• Silver spent most of today's floor session trading just above the unchanged line. It slipped into the red in the last half hour of pit trade and settled 0.2% lower. 

Dec copper rose 1 cent to $3.26/lbs

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Platinum/Active/ArchiveSearch/ArchiveSearch.aspx?PageName=Live%20In%20Play&Date=Nov-11-2013#ixzz2kPt8OXr5

Treasuries

Next Day In View 

Economic Commentary

Economic Summary: No US data today as US bond markets closed for Veterans Day
Fed/Treasury Events Summary:

·         Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated Friday that there is still concern over slack in the labor markets.

·         US Bond Markets are closed for Veterans day.

Upcoming Economic Data:

·         Weekly MBA Mortgage Index due out Wednesday at 7:00 (Last Week was -7.0%)

·         October Export Prices Ex-Ag due out Wednesday at 8:30 (September was 0.3%)

·         October Import Prices Ex-Oil due out Wednesday at 8:30 (September was 0.1%)

·         October Treasury Budget due out Wednesday at 14:00 (September was -$120.0 bln)

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:

·         Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher (not a voting FOMC member, typically hawkish) to speak tomorrow at 3:00

·         Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota (2014 voter, typically dovish) to speak tomorrow at 13:00

·         Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (not a voting FOMC member, typically moderate) to speak tomorrow at 13:50

·         The Treasury is scheduled to auction off $70 bln in new debt this week. Results for each auction will be announced at 13:00

o    Tuesday: $30 bln in 3 year notes

o    Wednesday: $24 bln in 10 year notes

o    Thursday: $16 bln in 30 years bonds

Other International Events of Interest

·         China's CPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (0.2% expected, 0.8% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 3.2% (3.3% forecast, 3.1% last). Separately, PPI slipped 1.5% year-over-year (-1.4% consensus, -1.3% previous). Also of note, industrial production increased 10.3% year-over-year (10.0% forecast, 10.2% last), retail sales rose 13.3% year-over-year (13.4% expected, 13.3% prior), and fixed asset investment increased 20.1% year-over-year, as expected (20.2% last). 

·         Reports indicated six out of 23 members of the European Central Bank governing council were against last week's rate cut. 

On other news.... 

Morning Commodities: Crude Oil Rises After Talks On Iran Nuclear Program Fail

·         Commodities are mixed this morning, while the dollar index has been lower all day so far.

·         Crude oil rallied in recent trade, pushing into positive territory (around 10am EST) and rising above the $95/barrel level. Prior to this move, crude oil had been in the red all session.

·         Strength in crude likely came as talks in Geneva, Switzerland failed to cause Iran to halt its nuclear program.

·         In current trade, Dec crude oil is +0.7% at $95.23/barrel.

·         Natural futures recovered from a morning sell-off to a new LoD and are now +0.1% at $3.56/MMBtu (Dec contract).

·         Gold and silver are mixed this morning, while copper futures are flat.

·         Dec gold is now -0.2% at $1281.90/oz, Dec silver is +0.1% at $21.35/oz. Dec copper is -0.02% at $3.25/lb

Currencies 









Jason's Commentaries


Dow Jones finally closed higher but on lower volumes amidst the Holiday. Fixed income market is closed in observance of the Veteran's day. Volumes came in at a pathetic 504m shares traded across the NYSE. The market started flat, ended flat. Real boring day. All sectors were mixed.We might be looking at another consolidation period while VIX hits 12.50 points once again.

Market Call: FLAT

Date: 12 Nov 2013