30 May 2014 AMC - Market ended May with a gain
Market Summary
European
Markets Closing Prices
European
markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
·
UK's FTSE: -0.4%
·
Germany's DAX: 0.0%
·
France's CAC: -0.2%
·
Spain's IBEX: + 0.6%
·
Portugal's PSI: + 0.6%
·
Italy's MIB Index: + 0.6%
·
Irish Ovrl Index: -0.3%
·
Greece ATHEX Composite: + 1.5%
Before Market Opens
S&P futures vs fair value:
-1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50.
The S&P 500 futures trade two points below fair value.
Asian markets ended mostly lower, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.3%) bucked the general trend. Notably, Japan lowered its Industrial Production assessment to ‘output flattening as a trend' following the latest Industrial Production report, which disappointed.
The S&P 500 futures trade two points below fair value.
Asian markets ended mostly lower, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.3%) bucked the general trend. Notably, Japan lowered its Industrial Production assessment to ‘output flattening as a trend' following the latest Industrial Production report, which disappointed.
·
In economic data:
o South Korea's Industrial Production ticked up
0.1% month-over-month (consensus 0.6%, previous 0.9%), while Retail Sales fell
1.7% month-over-month (expected 0.5%, prior 1.8%). Separately, Manufacturing
BSI Index slipped to 77 from 79.
o Japan's National CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year
(previous 1.6%), while Core CPI increased 3.2% (consensus 3.1%, prior 1.3%).
Tokyo CPI increased 3.1% year-over-year (previous 2.9%), while Tokyo Core CPI
jumped 2.8% (expected 2.9%, prior 2.7%). Separately, Household Spending fell
4.6% year-over-year (consensus -3.2%, prior 7.2%) and Industrial Production
dropped 2.5% month-over-month (expected -2.0%, prior 0.7%). Also of note,
Construction Orders surged 104.9% year-over-year (previous -8.8%), but Housing
Starts decreased 3.3% year-over-year (expected -8.4%, last -2.9%).
o India's quarterly GDP rose 4.6% year-over-year
(expected 4.8%, previous 4.7%), while the annual reading rose 4.7%
year-over-year, as expected.
o Australia's Private Sector Credit rose 0.5%
month-over-month (expected 0.4%, prior 0.4%).
o New Zealand's Building Consents rose 1.5%
month-over-month (consensus -3.5%, previous 9.2%).
------
·
Japan's Nikkei shed 0.3% after slumping during the
second half of the session. Technology names Konami and Casio Computer lagged,
falling close to 2.8% apiece. On the upside, Tokyo Electric Power surged
5.4%.
·
Hong
Kong's Hang Seng added 0.3%
after spending the day in the green, but closed near its session low. Galaxy
Entertainment led the way with a 4.7% gain. Consumer names lagged as Belle
International and Li & Fung lost 2.5% and 1.4%, respectively.
·
China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.1%, ending little
changed following a quiet session. Gemdale lost 3.7%.
Major European indices trade in
mixed fashion as the quiet trading week draws to the close. European Central
Bank officials have made additional policy-related comments with Ignazio Visco
saying the central bank is ready to act and deploy ‘non-standard' tools in the
event the low inflation pattern continues.
·
Looking at economic
data:
o Germany's Retail Sales fell 0.9%
month-over-month (consensus 0.4%, previous 0.1%), while the year-over-year
reading jumped 3.4% (expected 1.5%, prior -1.1%).
o Italy's CPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month, as
expected. Separately, PPI slid 0.3% month-over-month (consensus -0.2%, previous
-0.2%), while the year-over-year reading fell 1.5% (consensus -1.3%, prior
-1.6%).
o Spain's Business Confidence ticked up to -8 from
-10 (consensus -9), while the Current Account deficit narrowed to EUR1.80
billion from EUR2.80 billion.
------
·
In
France, the CAC is lower by
0.4% amid weakness in financials. BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe
Generale are all down between 2.1% and 4.7%. On the upside, hotel operator
Accor leads with a gain of 1.1%.
·
Great
Britain's FTSE holds a loss of
0.2% as miners weigh. Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Fresnillo, and Rio Tinto
trade with losses between 2.3% and 3.3%. Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company
outperforms, trading higher by 2.0%.
·
In
Germany, the DAX trades flat.
Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank are pressuring the index with respective losses
of 1.1% and 1.5%, while Deutsche Telekom outperforms with a gain of 1.2%.
·
Italy's MIB is higher by 0.8%. BMPS, Intesa Sanpaolo,
and Mediobanca are all up between 1.5% and 3.3%.
U.S. Equities
·
U.S. equity futures
suggest small losses at the open
·
Yesterday's bid ran the
S&P 500 to a record-high while the DJIA finished within an eyelash of its
own all-time high peak
·
Personal Income (0.3%
actual v. 0.3% expected)
·
Personal Spending (-0.1%
actual v. 0.2% expected)
·
PCE Prices - Core (0.2%
actual v. 0.2% expected)
o S&P Futures -2 @ 1916
o Dow Futures -15 @ 16660
o Nasdaq Futures -2 @ 3733
Asia
·
Markets finished mostly
lower across Asia
·
Japan's Nikkei (-0.3%)
slipped after preliminary household spending (-4.6% YoY actual v. -3.4% YoY
expected) and industrial production (-2.5% MoM actual v. -1.9% MoM expected)
both posted larger than expected declines while national core CPI (3.2% YoY
actual v. 3.1% YoY expected) and Tokyo core CPI (2.8% YoY actual v. 2.9% YoY
expected) were in-line with estimates. Today's data calls into question just
how effective Abenomics has been
·
China's Shanghai
Composite (-0.1%) slipped amid a lackluster session while Hong Kong's Hang Seng
(+0.3%) held near its best levels of 2014. Notable was a report showing new
home prices in China fell -0.3% in May, making for the first monthly decline in
two years
·
India's Sensex (-0.2%)
continued to slide off all-time highs and Australia's ASX (-0.5%) slipped off
its best levels in six years
Market Internals
Market Internals -Technical-
The S&P 500 closed up 4 (+0.18%) at 1924, the Dow closed up 18 (+0.11%) at 16717, and the Nasdaq closed down 5 (-0.13%) at 4243. Action came on above average volume (NYSE 898 mln vs. avg. of 714; NASDAQ 1700 mln vs. avg. of 1892), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1591/1514, NASDAQ 1030/1611) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 191/28, NASDAQ 69/29).
Relative Strength:
Junior Gold Miners-GDXJ +2.13%, Greece-GREK +1.61%, Spain-EWP +0.85%, Consumer Staples-XLP +0.78%, MLP Index-AMJ +0.73%, Retail-RTH +0.66%, Utilities-XLU +0.66%, Peru-EPU +0.63%, China 25 Index-FXI +0.52%, Italy-EWI +0.51%.
Relative Weakness:
Indonesia-IDX -3.33%, South Africa-EZA -2.69%, Coffee-JO -2.35%, Egypt-EGPT -2.2%, Steel-SLX -2.09%, Latin America 40-ILF -2.07%, Russia-RSX -1.88%, Coal-KOL -1.71%, Rare Earths-REMX -1.46%, Clean Energy-PBW -1.38%.
Leaders and Laggards
Technical Updates
Commentaries
Closing Market Summary: Stocks End
May on Mixed Note
The major averages finished the month of May on a mixed note. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, locking in a monthly gain of 2.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) and Russell 2000 (-0.5%) lagged. The two indices narrowed their monthly gains to 3.1% and 0.8%, respectively.
Outside of the relative weakness among small-cap issues, the Friday session was very quiet as evidenced by the S&P 500 spending the entire trading day in a seven-point range. Similarly, intraday volume was largely in line with yesterday's session, which saw the lowest volume of the year, but today's final tally was boosted by semi-annual MSCI rebalancing. As a result, more than 900 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
Overall, countercyclical sectors fared better than the growth-sensitive side of the market. In fact, all four defensively-oriented sectors—consumer staples (+0.7%), health care (+0.3%), telecom services (+0.3%), and utilities (+0.8%)—outperformed, while five of six cyclical sectors were unable to keep up with the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the financial sector (+0.2%) settled in line with the S&P 500 after spending the bulk of the session just above its flat line.
Interestingly, the health care sector was able to finish among the leaders even as biotechnology followed in the footsteps of the Russell 2000. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 239.59, -1.37) lost 0.6%. Furthermore, the underperformance of biotech weighed on the Nasdaq, which also had to contend with losses among some top-weighted technology components.
Specifically, the largest Nasdaq component—Apple (AAPL 633.00, -2.38)—shed 0.4%, but it is worth mentioning the decline followed a big rally over the past two weeks. Despite today's loss, the largest tech stock surged 7.3% in May. Outside of Apple, Cisco Systems (CSCO 24.62, -0.06) and Oracle (ORCL 42.02, -0.18) also contributed to the underperformance of the Nasdaq.
Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector ended just behind the broader market even as participants received another dose of disappointing earnings from the retail space. Express (EXPR 12.61, -1.02), Guess? (GES 25.50, -1.38), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 2.42, -0.52) lost between 5.1% and 17.7% in reaction to below-consensus earnings and/or guidance, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 83.78, +0.34) added 0.4%.
Also of note, today's disparity between small caps and blue chip listings did little to scare investors as evidenced by a 1.2% decline in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 11.43, -0.14), which ended the day just a shade above its lowest close of the year. On the fixed income side, Treasuries alternated between gains and losses, but ultimately settled flat with the 10-yr yield at 2.47%.
Reviewing today's data:
The major averages finished the month of May on a mixed note. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, locking in a monthly gain of 2.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) and Russell 2000 (-0.5%) lagged. The two indices narrowed their monthly gains to 3.1% and 0.8%, respectively.
Outside of the relative weakness among small-cap issues, the Friday session was very quiet as evidenced by the S&P 500 spending the entire trading day in a seven-point range. Similarly, intraday volume was largely in line with yesterday's session, which saw the lowest volume of the year, but today's final tally was boosted by semi-annual MSCI rebalancing. As a result, more than 900 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
Overall, countercyclical sectors fared better than the growth-sensitive side of the market. In fact, all four defensively-oriented sectors—consumer staples (+0.7%), health care (+0.3%), telecom services (+0.3%), and utilities (+0.8%)—outperformed, while five of six cyclical sectors were unable to keep up with the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the financial sector (+0.2%) settled in line with the S&P 500 after spending the bulk of the session just above its flat line.
Interestingly, the health care sector was able to finish among the leaders even as biotechnology followed in the footsteps of the Russell 2000. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 239.59, -1.37) lost 0.6%. Furthermore, the underperformance of biotech weighed on the Nasdaq, which also had to contend with losses among some top-weighted technology components.
Specifically, the largest Nasdaq component—Apple (AAPL 633.00, -2.38)—shed 0.4%, but it is worth mentioning the decline followed a big rally over the past two weeks. Despite today's loss, the largest tech stock surged 7.3% in May. Outside of Apple, Cisco Systems (CSCO 24.62, -0.06) and Oracle (ORCL 42.02, -0.18) also contributed to the underperformance of the Nasdaq.
Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector ended just behind the broader market even as participants received another dose of disappointing earnings from the retail space. Express (EXPR 12.61, -1.02), Guess? (GES 25.50, -1.38), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 2.42, -0.52) lost between 5.1% and 17.7% in reaction to below-consensus earnings and/or guidance, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 83.78, +0.34) added 0.4%.
Also of note, today's disparity between small caps and blue chip listings did little to scare investors as evidenced by a 1.2% decline in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 11.43, -0.14), which ended the day just a shade above its lowest close of the year. On the fixed income side, Treasuries alternated between gains and losses, but ultimately settled flat with the 10-yr yield at 2.47%.
Reviewing today's data:
·
Personal Income
increased an in-line 0.3% in April, but consumption fell 0.1% against the 0.2%
increase that was expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Once again, the
report failed to show any pent-up demand resulting from the severe winter
weather. Core PCE prices rose 0.2%, as expected.
·
The Chicago PMI
increased to 65.5 in May from 63.0 in April. The Briefing.com consensus
expected the Chicago PMI to fall to 60.3. New order levels accelerated as the
related index increased to 70.2 in May from 68.7 in April. That did not
translate into stronger production as the index fell to 64.4 in May from 70.5.
Instead, much of the new orders growth was marketed for backlogs as that index
increased to 61.4 from 54.9. The strength of the backlogs index should support
elevated production levels.
·
The final reading for
the May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 81.9 from
81.8 in the preliminary reading. Consumer sentiment is still down from an 84.1
reading in April. The Briefing.com consensus expected the Consumer Sentiment
Index to fall to 81.4. The Current Conditions Index fell to 94.5 in the final
May reading from 95.1 in the preliminary reading. The Consumer Expectations
Index increased to 73.7 from 73.2.
On Monday, the ISM Index for May and April Construction
Spending will be reported at 10:00 ET
·
S&P 500 +4.1%
YTD
·
Dow Jones Industrial
Average +0.9% YTD
·
Nasdaq Composite +1.6%
YTD
·
Russell 2000 -2.4%
YTD
Commodities
Closing Commodities: Gold And Silver
Have A Losing Week
·
August gold fell for a
fifth consecutive session despite weakness in the dollar index. The yellow
metal pulled back from its session high of $1256.70 per ounce set in morning
action and slipped deeper into negative territory. It traded as low as $1242.20
per ounce and settled with a 0.9% loss at $1246.00 per ounce. Today's weakness
brought losses for the week to 3.6%.
·
July silver also trended
lower after retreating from its session high of $19.08 per ounce. It brushed a
session low of $18.61 per ounce and settled 1.8% lower at $18.67 per ounce,
booking a weekly loss of 3.8%.
·
July crude oil chopped
around in negative territory as well. It touched a session high of $103.05 per
barrel in morning action and later dipped to a session low of $102.40 per
barrel. Unable to gain momentum, the energy component settled 0.8% lower at
$102.75 per barrel, booking a loss of 1.5% for the week.
·
July natural gas
extended yesterday' losses and traded as low as $4.49 per MMBtu. It broke into
positive territory and touched a session high of $4.59 per MMBtu in early
afternoon action but retreated back into the red and settled 0.4% lower at
$4.54 per MMBtu. Despite today's slight decline, natural gas rose 3.2% over the
week.
COMEX
Metals Closing Prices
Aug gold fell $11.10 to $1246.00/oz
·
Gold fell for a fifth
consecutive session despite weakness in the dollar index. The yellow metal
pulled back from its session high of $1256.70 set in morning action and slipped
deeper into negative territory. It traded as low as $1242.20 and settled with a
0.9% loss. Today's weakness brought losses for the week to 3.6%.
July silver fell $0.35 to $18.67/oz
·
Silver also trended
lower after retreating from its session high of $19.08. It brushed a session
low of $18.61 and settled 1.8% lower, booking a weekly loss of 3.8%.
July
copper fell 2 cents to $3.12/lbs
CBOT
Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices
·
July
corn fell 5 cents to
$4.65/bushel
·
July
wheat fell 5 cents to
$6.28/bushel
·
July
soybeans fell 8 cents to
$14.91/bushel
·
June
ethanol fell 1 cent to
$2.37/gallon
·
July
sugar (#16 (U.S.)) rose
0.37 of a penny to 25.60 cents/lbs
NYMEX
Energy Closing Prices
July crude oil fell $0.85 to $102.75/barrel
·
Crude oil chopped around
in negative territory today despite weakness in the dollar index. The energy
component touched a session high of $103.05 in morning action and later dipped
to a session low of $102.40. Unable to gain momentum, it settled 0.8% lower,
booking a loss of 1.5% for the week.
July natural gas fell 2 cents to $4.54/MMBtu
·
Natural gas extended
yesterday's losses, trading as low as $4.49. It broke into positive territory
and touched a session high of $4.59 in early afternoon action but retreated
back into the red and settled 0.4% lower. Despite today's slight decline,
natural gas rose 3.2% over the week.
July heating oil fell 3 cents to $2.89/gallon
July
RBOB fell 3 cents to $2.97/gallon Treasuries
Yields Slide to Multi-Month Lows:
10-yr: -02/32..2.476%..USD/JPY: 101.79..EUR/USD: 1.3630
The Week in Review
The Week in Review
·
Treasuries endured a
mixed week as light selling took place up front while buyers were in control at
the long end. Click here to see an intraweek
yields chart.
·
Q1 GDP - Second Estimate
posted a -1.0% QoQ (-0.5% expected), making for the first negative GDP
reading since Q1 2011.
·
This week's data mostly
topped estimates as Case-Shiller 20-city Index (12.4% actual v. 11.8%
expected), Chicago PMI (65.5 actual v. 60.3 expected), consumer confidence
(83.0 actual v. 82.7 expected), durable orders (0.8% actual v. -1.3%
expected), and Michigan Sentiment - Final (81.9 actual v. 81.4 expected) all
topped estimates
·
Only pending home sales
(0.4% actual v. 1.0% expected) and personal spending (-0.1% actual v. 0.2%
expected) missed while personal income (0.3%) was in-line.
·
Tuesday's $31 bln
2y note auction was average. The auction drew 0.392% (WI 0.390%) and a strong
3.52x bid/cover. A larger than usual direct takedown
(25.2%) helped offset the weak indirect bid (18.8%). Primary
dealers were stuck with 56% of the supply..
·
Wednesday's $35 bln 5y note
auction was average. The auction drew 1.513% (WI 1.505%) and a solid 2.73x
bid/cover. A strong indirect takedown (50.4%) provided support as
direct bids (10.5%) were a bit light. Primary dealers were left with just 39.1% of the supply.
direct bids (10.5%) were a bit light. Primary dealers were left with just 39.1% of the supply.
·
Thursday's $29 bln 7y
note auction was in-line. The auction drew 2.010% (WI 2.010%) and a 2.60x
bid/cover. A light indirect bid (40.3%) was offset by a strong direct takedown
(24.1%), leaving primary dealers with 35.6% of the supply.
·
Selling up front ran the
2y up +2bps to 0.371% as trade bounced off support in the 0.350% area that
dates back to March.
·
The 5y ticked up +1bp to
1.528%. A mid-week bid dropped the yield to a three-month low of
1.465% before sellers were able to regain the upper hand. Minor resistance in
the 1.550% area is helped by the 200 dma.
·
The 10y shed -8bps to
2.457% as trade slipped to an 11-month low. The benchmark yield
pressed below support in the 2.500% area that had held up since July, and would
proceed to hit 2.400% before running higher.
·
At the long end, the 30y
fell -9bps to 3.314%. The yield hit its lowest level since June as
action dipped below 3.270%, but was unable to go any lower as sellers emerged
in defense of trendline support that dates back to November.
·
A
flatter curve took hold as the 5-30-yr spread narrowed to 178.5bps.
The Week Ahead
·
Monday's data includes ISM
Index and construction spending (10). Chicago's Evans
will be in Istanbul, Turkey to speak on economic conditions and monetary policy
(3).
·
Tuesday will see factory
orders (10) and auto/truck sales (14). KC's George discusses monetary
policy (13:50).
·
Data picks up on
Wednesday as the weekly MBA Mortgage Index (7), ADP Employment Change (8:15), trade
balance, productivity-rev., unit labor costs (8:30), ISM Services (10),
and the Fed's Beige Book (14) are released.
·
Data continues to flow
on Thursday with Challenger Job Cuts (7:30) and initial and continuing claims
(8:30). Minny's Kocherlakota discusses "Low Real Interest Rates"
(13:30).
·
Friday's data is the
most anticipated of the week as nonfarm payrolls, nonfarm private
payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, average workweek (8:30), and
consumer credit (15) are due out.
On other news....
Currencies
Dollar Fails at Key 80.50 Level:
10-yr: unch..2.461%..USD/JPY: 101.73..EUR/USD: 1.3639
·
The Dollar Index holds
on session lows near 80.35 as sellers remain in control for a second session. Click here to see a daily Dollar
Index chart.
·
Today's losses come as
trade has struggled for much of the past week to reclaim 80.50 resistance that
is guarded by the 200 dma.
·
EURUSD is +40 pips @ 1.3640 as trade contends with
one-week highs. Today's bid has the single currency higher for a second session
, and has action fighting to reclaim the 200 dma. Supoprt in the 1.3600 area
remains in play as next week's European Central Bank rate decision
looms large. German preliminary CPI accompanies Italian and Spanish
Manufacturing PMI. Italian banks are closed for National Day.
·
GBPUSD is +55 pips @ 1.6770 as buyers take control for
a second day. Today's advance comes amid a quiet day for news and data out of
the UK, and has run action off key support in the 1.6700 area. Britain's
Manufacturing PMI and net lending to individuals are due out Monday.
·
USDCHF is -35 pips @ .8940 as trade slides off the 200
dma (.8984). Today marks a second straight session of declines after an
impressive streak of 13 up days out of 16. Near-term support holds in the .8925
area. Swiss data is limited to SVME PMI.
·
USDJPY is +5 pips @ 101.75 as trade steadies following
two days of selling. Today's data has thrown many traders for a loop as household
spending and industrial production fell well short of estimates and CPI data
surged above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, shelving any expectations of
more easing in the near-term. The 101.25 support level remains critical with
additional help being provided by the 200 dma. Japan's capital spending will be
released Sunday evening.
·
AUDUSD is flat @ .9305 amid a mostly uneventful
session. An early bid lifted action to a 10-day high near .9330, but trade has
since slipped back to the flat line where it is receiving support from the 50
dma. Australian data includes building approvals and company operating profits. China's
Manufacturing PMI will cross the wires Saturday evening. Chinese banks are
closed Monday in observance of Dragon Boat Festival.
·
USDCAD is +5 pips @ 1.0840 as action has given up most
of its early gains. The pair jumped to session highs near 1.0870 following the in-line
GDP (0.1% MoM) and cooler than expected RMPI, but was unable to hold
onto those gains. A breakdown of the 1.0825 area puts 1.0700 support and the
200 dma (1.0747) in play.
Weekly Analysis
Week 22
Technical Updates
Briefing's Commentaries
Week in Review: Stocks Climb Through Holiday-Shortened Week
On Tuesday, the stock market picked up where it left off Friday, riding the outperformance of the small-cap and momentum stocks to broad-based gains. In turn, a strong showing from the financial sector and continued strength in the transport stocks carried the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Dow Jones Transportation Average to new record highs. The bulk of the gains were achieved shortly after the opening bell. They followed on the heels of a generally positive showing from foreign markets for the two-day period that included the Memorial Day holiday in the US. That showing was underpinned by a seeming hint from ECB President Draghi that the central bank will be easing monetary policy soon and the Ukraine presidential election, which went the way of anti-separatist candidate Petro Poroshenko.
The major averages endured a quiet Wednesday session that had the S&P 500 confined to a seven-point range. The benchmark index shed 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) followed not far behind. Small caps, however, saw some additional weakness as the Russell 2000 lost 0.5%. All in all, it is worth pointing out that the lack of aggressive selling or buying followed four consecutive advances that sent the S&P 500 higher by 2.1%. Furthermore, there was no concerted leadership as the top-weighted sectors ended the day in the red. On that note, consumer discretionary (-0.1%), financials (-0.3%), health care (-0.3%), and technology (-0.3%) all struggled to keep pace with the S&P 500.
Equity indices ended the Thursday session on an upbeat note despite receiving some disappointing data ahead of the open. The S&P 500 settled higher by 0.5% with nine sectors registering gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) underperformed throughout the trading day. Shortly before the open, the second revision to Q1 GDP revealed a 1.0% contraction, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a smaller decline of 0.5%. Interestingly, the subpar report led to just a brief stumble in the futures market, which recovered swiftly. That recovery may have been aided by the initial claims report, which suggested the labor market remains on solid ground. Even though almost all sectors finished in the green, there was no concerted leadership among the top-weighted sectors once again. Of the four largest groups, health care (+0.8%) and technology (+0.7%) displayed strength throughout the session, while consumer discretionary (+0.4%) and financials (+0.2%) joined the party in the late afternoon.
Next Week In View
Economic Commentaries
Economic Summary: Chicago PMI blows
past estimates; Spending declines which was unexpected
Economic Data Summary:
Economic Data Summary:
·
April
Personal Income 0.3% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.3%; March was 0.5%
·
April
Personal Spending -0.1% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; March was revised to
1.0% from 0.9%
o That translated into a similar increase in wages
and salaries. Total compensation was also up 0.2%. Personal current transfer
payments, which have made up a large portion of the income growth thus far in
2014, increased a modest 0.1%. The effects of Obamacare are waning. Medicaid
spending, which jumped 7.1% from December 2013 to March 2014, fell 1.4% in
April. Personal spending fell 0.1% in April after increasing an upwardly
revised 1.0% (from 0.9%) in March. The consensus expected spending to increase
0.2%. Overall, the spending data continue to show that the extreme winter
weather failed to delay first quarter consumption or create a temporary
positive shock from pent-up demand.
·
April PCE Prices - CORE
0.2% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; March was 0.2%
·
May
Chicago PMI 65.5 vs Briefing.com consensus of 60.3; April was 63.0
o That did not translate into stronger
production as the index fell to 64.4 in May from 70.5. Instead, much of the new
orders growth was marketed for backlogs as that index increased to 61.4 from
54.9. The strength of the backlogs index should support elevated production
levels. The Employment Index fell to 54.6 in May from 57.8 in April, but still
remains firmly in an expansion cycle. The Price Index increased to 66.8 from
55.2.
·
May
Michigan Sentiment 81.9 vs Briefing.com consensus of 81.4; April was 81.8
o Consumer sentiment moved in an opposite
direction from the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. The latter
showed an improvement in consumer attitudes as the index increased to 83.0 from
81.7. Normally, the strong gains in equity prices in May and the improvement in
labor market conditions would boost sentiment levels. In this case, normal
volatility likely kept the index in check.
Upcoming Economic Data:
·
May ISM Index due out
Monday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of ; April was 54.9)
·
April Construction
Spending due out Monday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of ; March was 0.2%)
Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:
·
Richmond Fed President
Jeffrey Lacker (not a voting FOMC member, hawkish) to speak at 14:00
·
Philadelphia Charles
Plosser (voting FOMC member, hawkish) to speak at 17:00
Jason's Commentaries
As expected, the market ended May with a flat day. After such a rally in May, I wonder would the market sell off once again in June just like last year. With such weak volumes supporting the gain, I doubt very much the market is very participative in May. As Russells hit a resistance, the S&P500 is able to break into a new high with the help of the staples components like Altria, Colgate, Microsoft and Walmart. The market was pretty much convergent on Friday night. It was a volatile session on Friday, selling off at 11am ET, and got back up by 2pm ET and it seems that the market is pretty convicted that market is heading up on Monday. I reckon the market is very likely to hold the high for monday.
Market Call: FLAT
Date: 2 June 2014