5 Dec 2014 AMC - Market edged higher as employment report beats expectation
Market Summary
European Markets Closing Prices
European
markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
·
UK's
FTSE: + 1.0%
·
Germany's
DAX: + 2.4%
·
France's
CAC: + 2.2%
·
Spain's
IBEX: + 2.7%
·
Portugal's
PSI: + 1.9%
·
Italy's
MIB Index: + 3.4%
·
Irish
Ovrl Index: + 1.8%
·
Greece
ASE General Index: + 4.1%
Before Market Opens
S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50.
The S&P 500 futures trade three points above fair value.
Markets gained across much of Asia. Rumblings of further rate cuts from the People's Bank of China provided support. Elsewhere, more polls suggested Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's LDP will win a super majority in the upcoming election.
The S&P 500 futures trade three points above fair value.
Markets gained across much of Asia. Rumblings of further rate cuts from the People's Bank of China provided support. Elsewhere, more polls suggested Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's LDP will win a super majority in the upcoming election.
·
In
economic data:
o Japan's Leading Index fell to 104.0 from 105.6
(expected 104.2)
o Australia's AIG Construction Index dropped to
45.4 from 53.0
------
·
Japan's Nikkei edged up 0.2% to its best levels since
July 2007 as the yen slid below 120.00. Exporters continued to reap the
benefits of the weak yen as Komatsu jumped 3.0% and Sony tacked on 1.3%.
·
Hong
Kong's Hang Seng
rose 0.7%, testing its best levels since mid-September, but was unable to break
out. Financials led the way amid continued speculation of a PBOC rate cut.
China Construction Bank and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China rallied
3.0% and 2.6%, respectively.
·
China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.3%, gaining for the
11th time in 12 sessions. The index has spiked 20% over that stretch.
Financials saw robust gains with Agricultural Bank of China surging 8.9%.
·
India's Sensex shed 0.4% to post its first losing week
in seven. The Index was dragged down by profit-taking in IT names as Wipro fell
2.3% and Infosys lost 1.5%.
Major European indices trade higher
across the board with Italy's MIB (+2.8%) in the lead. Elsewhere, Germany's
Bundesbank cut its 2014 GDP forecast for the country to 1.4% from 1.9% and
lowered its 2015 outlook to 0.8% from 1.8%. Harmonized inflation for 2014 is
expected to come in at 0.9%, down from 1.1%, while the 2015 forecast was
lowered to 1.1% from 1.5%
·
Economic
data was limited:
o Eurozone Q3 GDP was left unrevised at 0.2%
quarter-over-quarter, as expected
o Germany's Factory Orders rose 2.5%
month-over-month (expected 0.6%; last 1.1%)
o Spain's Industrial Production increased 1.2%
year-over-year (consensus 1.4%; last 1.0%)
------
·
UK's FTSE is higher by 0.8% with consumer names in
the lead. Carnival, Intertek Group, and International Consolidated Airlines
hold gains between 2.3% and 3.3%. Miners lag with Anglo American, BHP Billiton,
Fresnillo, and Rio Tinto down between 0.6% and 1.9%.
·
In France, the CAC trades up 1.7% with all but two
components in the green. Financials Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, and Societe
Generale are among the leaders with gains between 1.9% and 2.8%. On the
downside, Gemalto is the weakest performer, down 1.3%.
·
Germany's DAX has added 1.7% with help from bank shares.
Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are higher by 2.6% and 1.6%, respectively.
·
Italy's MIB has spiked 2.8% amid strength in financials.
Banco Popolare, Intesa Sanpaolo, UBI Banca, and Unicredit have jumped between
3.8% and 5.0%.
U.S. Equities
·
Equity
futures point to small gains at the open following the strongest nonfarm
payroll report since January 2012
·
Nonfarm
payrolls (321K actual v. 230K expected)
·
Nonfarm
private payrolls (314K actual v. 228K expected)
·
Unemployment
rate (5.8% actual v. 5.8% expected)
·
Hourly
Earnings (0.4% actual v. 0.2% expected)
·
Average
Workweek (34.6 actual v. 34.6 expected)
·
Trade
Balance (-$43.4B actual v. -$42.0B expected)
o S&P Futures +3 @ 2075
o Dow Futures +43 @ 17933
o Nasdaq Futures +7 @ 4320
Asia
·
Markets
gained across much of Asia
·
Rumblings
of further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China provided support
·
More
polls point to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe winning a super majority in
the upcoming election
·
Japan's
Nikkei (+0.2%) edged up to its best levels since July 2007 as the yen slide
below 120.00
·
Hong
Kong's Hang Seng (+0.7%) tested its best levels since mid-September, but was
unable to break out
·
China's
Shanghai Composite (+1.3%) gained for the 11th time in 12 sessions, and is up
20% over that time
·
India's
Sensex (-0.4%) posted its first losing week in seven
·
Australia's
ASX (-0.6%) ended its three-day win streak as action was rejected by the 50
dma
Market Internals
Market Internals -Technical-
The Dow closed up 59 (+0.33%) at 17959, the Nasdaq closed up 11 (+0.24%) at 4781, and the S&P 500 closed up 3 (+0.17%) at 2075. Action came on below average volume (NYSE 739 mln vs. avg. of 790; NASDAQ 1651 mln vs. avg. of 1796), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1668/1514, NASDAQ 1826/949) and new highs outpacing new lows(NYSE 194/145, NASDAQ 155/110).
Relative Strength:
Natural Gas-UNG +4.2%, Greece-GREK +2.17%, Italy-EWI +2%, Regional Banks-KRE +1.99%, Grains-JJG +1.8%, Biotechnology-XBI +1.78%, Banks-KBE +1.72%, Vietnam-VNM +1.33%, Hong Kong-EWH +1.32%, China 25 Index-FXI +1.13%.
Relative Weakness:
Junior Gold Miners-GDXJ -3.97%, Oil and Gas Exploration-XOP -2.43%, Turkey-TUR -2.32%, Volatility-VXX -1.66%, MLP Index-AMJ -1.64%, Gasoline-UGA -1.61%, Columbia Index-GXG -1.5%, Japanese Yen-FXY -1.42%, Middle East and Africa-GAF -1.08%, South Africa-EZA -1.02%.
Leaders and Laggards
Technical Updates
Commentaries
Closing Market Summary: Stocks End
Slightly Higher After Strong Jobs Report Rekindles Rate Hike Concerns
The Dow (+0.3%), Nasdaq (+0.2%), and S&P 500 (+0.2%) ended the Friday session near their flat lines, allowing the benchmark index to register its seventh consecutive weekly advance. The S&P 500 added 0.4% for the week, while the Russell 2000 (+0.8%) outperformed to extend its weekly gain to 0.7%. Also of note, the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed slightly today, but still ended the week in the red (-0.2%).
Prior to the open, the Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed the addition of 321,000 jobs in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 230,000. Although the data point came in well ahead of estimates, the stock market struggled for direction before following the financial sector (+1.0%) higher. Outside of financials, only the health care sector (+0.8%) was able to add more than 0.3%. As for the broader market, the S&P 500 notched its high just ahead of noon ET and slipped from that level into the close.
The lack of broad strength following a solid jobs report was a reflection of concerns that the Fed may be inclined to hike the fed funds rate sooner than the market expected. These concerns showed up in the Dollar Index (89.34, +0.64) and the Treasury market with the 10-yr note diving to send the benchmark yield higher by seven basis points to 2.31%. At the front of the curve, the 2-yr yield climbed nine basis points to 0.64%.
Conversely, higher Treasury yields contributed to the strength in the financial sector, which is poised to benefit from improved net interest margins of banks. If rates rise at the short end of the Treasury yield curve that would allow banks to charge higher interest on loans while deposit rates would likely remain close to where they are now. Top-weighted sector members rallied across the board with Dow components JPMorgan Chase (JPM 62.70, +1.32) and Goldman Sachs (GS 195.45, +3.50) spiking 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively, while the sector ended the week ahead of the remaining nine groups (+1.8%).
Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical sectors settled closer to their flat lines. Consumer discretionary (+0.3%) and industrials (+0.2%) registered modest gains while energy (-1.2%), materials (-0.1%), and technology (-0.2%) ended in the red.
The industrial sector was underpinned by defense and transport stocks. The PHLX Defense Index rose 0.6% while the Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 0.4%.
Elsewhere, the discretionary sector received support from restaurants, homebuilders, and media names while retailers underperformed after American Eagle Outfitters (AEO 11.91, -1.90), Big Lots (BIG 40.00, -7.95), and Five Below (FIVE 37.61, -5.24) disappointed with their results or guidance. Gap (GPS 40.74, +0.18) bucked the trend, climbing 0.4%, after reporting better than expected same store sales for November, but the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.43, -0.30) shed 0.3%.
Also of note, the top-weighted technology sector spun its wheels throughout the day as large cap components weighed while chipmakers rallied after Freescale Semiconductor (FSL 24.79, +1.36) was upgraded to ‘Buy' from ‘Hold' at Evercore ISI. Shares of FSL jumped 5.8% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index settled higher by 1.0%.
Chipmakers helped the Nasdaq Composite finish a little ahead of the broader market while biotechnology also chipped in with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 308.81, +2.61) climbing 0.9%. In turn, the strength helped the health care sector (+0.8%) register a solid gain.
On the downside, the energy sector (-1.2%) was pressured by a 1.8% decline in crude oil ($66.75/bbl) while the rate-sensitive utilities sector (-0.8%) lagged as Treasury yields climbed.
Today's participation was a bit below average with 738 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data included nonfarm payrolls, trade balance, factory orders, and consumer credit:
The Dow (+0.3%), Nasdaq (+0.2%), and S&P 500 (+0.2%) ended the Friday session near their flat lines, allowing the benchmark index to register its seventh consecutive weekly advance. The S&P 500 added 0.4% for the week, while the Russell 2000 (+0.8%) outperformed to extend its weekly gain to 0.7%. Also of note, the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed slightly today, but still ended the week in the red (-0.2%).
Prior to the open, the Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed the addition of 321,000 jobs in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 230,000. Although the data point came in well ahead of estimates, the stock market struggled for direction before following the financial sector (+1.0%) higher. Outside of financials, only the health care sector (+0.8%) was able to add more than 0.3%. As for the broader market, the S&P 500 notched its high just ahead of noon ET and slipped from that level into the close.
The lack of broad strength following a solid jobs report was a reflection of concerns that the Fed may be inclined to hike the fed funds rate sooner than the market expected. These concerns showed up in the Dollar Index (89.34, +0.64) and the Treasury market with the 10-yr note diving to send the benchmark yield higher by seven basis points to 2.31%. At the front of the curve, the 2-yr yield climbed nine basis points to 0.64%.
Conversely, higher Treasury yields contributed to the strength in the financial sector, which is poised to benefit from improved net interest margins of banks. If rates rise at the short end of the Treasury yield curve that would allow banks to charge higher interest on loans while deposit rates would likely remain close to where they are now. Top-weighted sector members rallied across the board with Dow components JPMorgan Chase (JPM 62.70, +1.32) and Goldman Sachs (GS 195.45, +3.50) spiking 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively, while the sector ended the week ahead of the remaining nine groups (+1.8%).
Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical sectors settled closer to their flat lines. Consumer discretionary (+0.3%) and industrials (+0.2%) registered modest gains while energy (-1.2%), materials (-0.1%), and technology (-0.2%) ended in the red.
The industrial sector was underpinned by defense and transport stocks. The PHLX Defense Index rose 0.6% while the Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 0.4%.
Elsewhere, the discretionary sector received support from restaurants, homebuilders, and media names while retailers underperformed after American Eagle Outfitters (AEO 11.91, -1.90), Big Lots (BIG 40.00, -7.95), and Five Below (FIVE 37.61, -5.24) disappointed with their results or guidance. Gap (GPS 40.74, +0.18) bucked the trend, climbing 0.4%, after reporting better than expected same store sales for November, but the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.43, -0.30) shed 0.3%.
Also of note, the top-weighted technology sector spun its wheels throughout the day as large cap components weighed while chipmakers rallied after Freescale Semiconductor (FSL 24.79, +1.36) was upgraded to ‘Buy' from ‘Hold' at Evercore ISI. Shares of FSL jumped 5.8% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index settled higher by 1.0%.
Chipmakers helped the Nasdaq Composite finish a little ahead of the broader market while biotechnology also chipped in with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 308.81, +2.61) climbing 0.9%. In turn, the strength helped the health care sector (+0.8%) register a solid gain.
On the downside, the energy sector (-1.2%) was pressured by a 1.8% decline in crude oil ($66.75/bbl) while the rate-sensitive utilities sector (-0.8%) lagged as Treasury yields climbed.
Today's participation was a bit below average with 738 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data included nonfarm payrolls, trade balance, factory orders, and consumer credit:
·
Nonfarm
payrolls increased by 321,000 in November, up from an upwardly revised 243,000
(from 214,000), while the Briefing.com consensus expected nonfarm payrolls to
add 230,000 new jobs
o That was the biggest increase in payrolls since
360,000 jobs were added in January 2012
o Private payrolls increased by 314,000 in
November after adding an upwardly revised 236,000 (from 209,000) in October.
The consensus expected 228,000 new private jobs
o Obviously, a three-handle jobs gain is
impressive, which tells us that there was still a considerable amount of people
unemployed who were looking for jobs
§ However, those who already had jobs were able to
demand a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, which suggests that the
number of available qualified workers is diminishing, thus forcing employers to
pay their workers more money to keep them at their current job
§ Gains in hourly earnings and the average
workweek led to a 0.9% increase in aggregate wages, which was the largest
increase since 2006
o The unemployment rate held at 5.8%, as
expected
·
The U.S.
trade deficit narrowed slightly in October, falling from an upwardly revised
$43.60 billion (from $43.00 billion) in September to $43.40 billion while the
Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to $42.00 billion
o The goods deficit was virtually unchanged at
$62.70 billion while the services surplus increased to $19.20 billion from
$19.10 billion
·
Factory
orders declined 0.7% in October after declining an upwardly revised 0.5% (from
-0.6%) while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%
o The large downside surprise resulted from weaker
oil prices, which caused a 6.5% decline in petroleum refinery orders. This led
to a 1.5% decline in nondurable goods orders after those orders declined only
0.2% in September
·
The
Consumer Credit report for October showed an increase of $13.20 billion, which
was lower than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of $16.50 billion
Monday's session will be free of
economic data.
·
Nasdaq
Composite +14.5% YTD
·
S&P
500 +12.3% YTD
·
Dow Jones
Industrial Average +8.3% YTD
·
Russell
2000 +1.5% YTD
Commodities
Metals price action
·
Gold
ended today's session $17.20 lower at $1190.20/oz
·
Silver
fell $0.29 to $16.26/oz
·
Copper
fell 1 cents to $2.90/lb
Agricultural price action
·
Corn
closed 14 cents higher at $3.96/bushel
·
Wheat
rose 4 cents to $5.93/bushel
·
Soybeans
rose 28 cents to $10.45/bushel
·
Ethanol
fell 1 cent to $1.73/gallon
·
Sugar #11
fell 0.07 cents to 15.14 cents/gallon
Energy price action
·
Crude oil
fell $0.87 to $66.75/barrel
·
Natural
gas rose 15 cents to $3.80/MMBtu
·
RBOB
Gasoline fell 3 cents to $1.77/gallon
·
Heating
oil fell 1 cent to $2.11/gallon
Treasuries
Strong Jobs Report Runs 2Y to Highest
Since April 2011: 10Y: -18/32..2.307%..USD/JPY: 121.37..EUR/USD: 1.2293
The Week in Review
The Week in Review
·
Treasuries
lost ground this week as the November nonfarm payroll report (321K
actual v. 230K expected) posted its best reading since January 2012 and the
unemployment rate held at 5.8%. Click here to see an intraweek
yields chart.
·
The
strong jobs number was coupled with a +0.4% increase in hourly wages,
causing some to suggest the Fed could alter its 'considerable time' language at
this month's policy meeting.
·
This
week's European Central Bank meeting saw Mario Draghi suggest the
central bank would 'reassess' sovereign debt purchases.
·
In Japan, all
signs point to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe winning a super majority in the
upcoming election.
·
Weak data
out of China fanned further speculation the People's Bank of China will look to
ease policy in early 2015.
·
Moody's
downgraded Japan's credit rating to A1 from Aa3 while S&P cut Italy's
credit rating to BBB-, the lowest for an investment grade security.
·
Th rest
of the economic data was mixed as ISM Index (58.7 actual v. 58.0 expected),
construction spending (1.1% actual v. 0.6% expected), and ISM Services (59.3
actual v. 57.5 expected) outpaced estimates while productivity-rev. (2.3%
actual v. 2.4% expected), unit labor costs-rev. (-1.0% actual v. 0.0%
expected), and factory orders (-0.7% actual v. 0.2% expected) missed.
·
Up front,
the 2Y rallied +16bps to 0.639% to close at its highest level since
April 2011. The majority of the week's advance came in response to
Friday's strong jobs number,
·
In the
belly, the 5Y climbed +19bps to 1.682%. The yield busted through 1.600%
resistance in response to Friday's jobs report and finished at a
two-month high.
·
The 10Y
added +13bps to 2.307%. The benchmark yield continues to flirt with resistance
in the 2.300% area.
·
The long
bond outperformed, causing the 30Y to tack on just +6bps to 2.964%.
Interestingly, the yield on the long bond ended Friday's session little changed
despite the strong jobs data. Resistance at the 3.000% level has proved
difficult to conquer.
·
A flatter
curve developed over the course of the week as 2-10-yr spread tightened
to 167bps.
The Week Ahead
·
There is
no data on Monday. ATL's Lockhart discusses his economic outlook and monetary
policy (12:30).
·
Tuesday's
data includes wholesale inventories and JOLTs - Job Openings
(10). Treasury will hold a $25B 3Y note auction.
·
Data
picks up on Wednesday as initial and continuing claims, retail sales,
import/export prices (8:30), and business inventories (10) are
due out. Treasury will reopen $21B 10Y notes.
·
Data
concludes for the week on Thursday as PPI (8:30) and Michigan
Sentiment (9:55) are set for release. Treasury will hold a
$13B 30Y bond reopening.
·
There is
no data scheduled for Friday.
On other news....
Strong Gains in November Payrolls Should Drive Consumption Growth
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 321,000 in November, up from an upwardly revised 243,000 (from 214,000) in October. The Briefing.com consensus expected nonfarm payrolls to add 230,000 new jobs.
That was the biggest increase in payrolls since 360,000 jobs were added in January 2012.
Private payrolls increased by 314,000 in November after adding an upwardly revised 236,000 (from 209,000) in October. The consensus expected 228,000 new private jobs.
Over the past few months, initial claims fell to levels that are normally associated with full employment. During that time, however, payroll growth was moderate. The lack of strong jobs growth suggested that there wasn't much slack in the labor market.
Interestingly, the November jobs report provided evidence both for and against the slack argument.
Obviously, a three-handle jobs gain is impressive. That tells us that there was still a considerable amount of people unemployed who were looking for jobs.
Yet, those who already had jobs were able to demand a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings. That tells us that the number of available qualified workers is diminishing, which is forcing employers to pay their workers more money to keep them at their current job.
What we may be seeing is that there is a disconnect between the top and bottom wage earners. The number of qualified top tier employees is shrinking but the number of people who are willing to work more menial hourly work remains large.
The average workweek increased to 34.6 hours from a downwardly revised 34.5 hours (from 34.6).
Overall, the combined increase in the average workweek, private payrolls, and hourly earnings led to a 0.9% increase in aggregate wages in November. That is more than enough to drive an acceleration in consumption growth even if consumers opt to continue increasing their savings.
The household survey did not show much change in labor conditions from October.
The unemployment rate remained at 5.8% for a second consecutive month. That was exactly what the consensus expected.
Underemployment softened as the number of people working part-time for economic reasons fell by 177,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate, including discouraged workers and underemployment, dipped to 11.4% in November from 11.5% in October.
Currencies
Strong Jobs Report Propels Dollar to
Best Levels Since March 2009: 10Y: -19/32..2.310%..USD/JPY: 121.44..EUR/USD:
1.2287
·
The
Dollar Index holds on session highs near 89.40 as trade readies for its
best close since March 2009. Click here to see a daily Dollar
Index chart.
·
Traders
are paying close attention to the 200 mma, which lurks near 90.00.
·
EURUSD is
-95 pips @ 1.2280 as trade presses to its lowest levels since August
2012. The single currency struggled despite the strong German factory
orders reading, and flushed to its worst levels in more than two years in
response to the upbeat employment picture in the US. Aiding the decline were reports
suggesting some dissent within the European Central Bank to the ability to
launch a QE-type program. Italian banks are closed on Monday for
Immaculate Conception Day.
·
GBPUSD is -85 pips @ 1.5585 as action slides to
a fresh 15-month low. Sterling held small gains in early trade, but has
come under pressure amid the broad-based dollar strength.
·
USDCHF is +75 pips @ .9785 as trade threatens
to put in its best close since the summer of 2012. The pair saw little
reaction to the build in the Swiss National Bank's foreign currency reserves,
and instead has moved in lockstep with the euro. Swiss CPI and retail sales
will cross the wires Monday.
·
USDJPY is +165 pips @ 121.45 as trade gains for
the fifth time in six days. Today's advance has run action to its best
levels since July 2007, and puts the 124.00 resistance level in focus.
Japan's current account balance and Final GDP are due out Sunday evening.
·
AUDUSD is -60 pips @ .8320 as action dives to a
fresh 53-month low. The hard currency has fallen in nine of ten sessions
and has been unable to find traction after this week's Reserve Bank of
Australia Statement suggested the next move could be a rate cut. Australia's
trade balance will be released late Sunday.
·
USDCAD is +50 pips @ 1.1435 as trade flirts
with its best finish since July 2009 following the disappointing
employment change (-10.7K actual v. 5.3K expected) reading. Action has
struggled in the 1.1450 area over the past month. Canadian data set for Monday
includes housing starts and building permits.
Weekly Analysis
Technical Updates
Briefing's Commentaries
Week in Review: S&P 500 Posts Seventh Weekly Gain
The major averages began December on a lower note with relative weakness among cyclical sectors keeping the market under pressure throughout the Monday session. The Nasdaq Composite (-1.3%) and Russell 2000 (-1.6%) paced the slide while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.7% with eight sectors ending in the red. Equities faced selling pressure from the opening bell after the overnight session reminded investors about persistent growth concerns around the globe. In Asia, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to an eight-month low (50.3; expected 50.5) while Japan's debt rating was lowered to A1 from Aa3 at Moody's. Making matters worse, Germany's Manufacturing PMI slid into contraction (49.5; expected 50.0) while the eurozone Manufacturing PMI narrowly avoided the same fate (50.1; expected 50.4). Accordingly, the concerns about major economies kept cyclical sectors under pressure with five of six growth-sensitive groups ending behind the broader market.
Equities enjoyed a broad rebound on Tuesday after Monday's retreat. The S&P 500 settled higher by 0.6% while the Russell 2000 (+1.2%) displayed relative strength. The benchmark index spent the day in a steady advance with M&A news acting as a supportive factor. In the technology sector (+0.3%), Cypress Semiconductor (CY) agreed to a $4 billion merger of equals with Spansion (CODE) while health care component (+1.1%) Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) agreed to be acquired by Otsuka Pharmaceuticals for $3.5 billion in cash. Also of note, insurer Aviva (AV) announced its acquisition of Friends Life Group.
The market ended the midweek session on an upbeat note with the Russell 2000 (+1.0%) pacing the advance for the second day in a row. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 posted a more modest gain of 0.4% with seven sectors ending in the green. Cyclical sectors were responsible for the bulk of the advance as all six growth-sensitive groups ended in the green while health care (+0.2%) was the lone gainer on the countercyclical side.
The stock market ended the Thursday session on a modestly lower note ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report for November. The S&P 500 shed 0.1% while the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) underperformed. Thursday served as a perfect reminder for how dependent global equity markets have become on central bank stimulus. The first reminder occurred during the Asian session with China's Shanghai Composite soaring 4.3% amid expectations the People's Bank of China will introduce additional stimulus measures. While the advance was impressive, it pales in comparison with an 18.3% surge in the index since November 20. Meanwhile, the second reminder manifested itself through volatility in European and U.S. markets in reaction to the European Central Bank's latest policy statement and subsequent press reports. ECB President Mario Draghi did not call for the start of a sovereign QE program, which had been expected by some. However, a Bloomberg report indicating the ECB will prepare a broad-based QE package for the January meeting helped fuel a rebound.
Next Week In View
Economic Commentaries
Economic Summary: November jobs data
better than expected; Factory Orders fall, following oil prices
Economic Data Summary:
Economic Data Summary:
·
November
Jobs data:
o Nonfarm Payrolls 321K vs 230K Briefing.com
consensus; October was revised to 243K from 214K
§ The biggest increase in payrolls since 360,000
jobs were added in January 2012.
o Private Payrolls 314K vs 228K Briefing.com
consensus; October was revised to 236K from 209K
o Unemployment Rate unchanged from last month at
5.8%, in-line with the Briefing.com consensus
o Hourly Earnings +0.4% vs Briefing.com consensus
of 0.2%; October was revised to +0.1% from 0.1%
o Average Workweek 34.6 vs Briefing.com consensus
of 34.6; October was revised to 34.5 from 34.6
§ The combined increase in the average workweek,
private payrolls, and hourly earnings led to a 0.9% increase in aggregate wages
in November. That is more than enough to drive an acceleration in consumption
growth even if consumers opt to continue increasing their savings.
·
October
Trade Balance -$43.4 bln vs Briefing.com consensus of -$42.0 bln; September was
revised to -$43.6 bln from -$43.0 bln
o The goods deficit was virtually unchanged at
$62.7 bln while the services surplus increased to $19.2 bln from $19.1
bln.
o Total exports increased from $195.2 bln in
October to $197.5 bln; imports increased by $2.1 bln in November to $241.0 bln
from $238.8 bln.
·
October
Factory Orders -0.7% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; September was revised
to -0.5% from -0.6%.
o The large downside surprise was the result
weaker oil prices. Lower oil prices caused a 6.5% decline in petroleum refinery
orders, which led to a 1.5% decline in nondurable goods orders vs. a 0.2%
decline in September.
Other items of interest:
·
German
Factory Orders +2.5%, better than expected
Upcoming Economic Data:
·
October
Consumer Credit 15:00 -- Briefing.com consensus $16.5 bln vs. $15.9 bln in Sept
Upcoming
Fed/Treasury Events:Jason's Commentaries
As expected, the market managed to edge higher as the employment report. However, the market did not manage to hold the high past lunch time. After lunch, the market decided to give back half of its gains. Volumes were surprisingly on the low side of the month at 754.9m shares traded on the NYSE and the market was performing in a divergent manner. The financials were manage to lead the market up higher despite the weakening strength in the Energy stocks due to oil prices.
While today, we're having the futures down by 0.31% 15 mins before the opening bell. I reckon the market is likely to fight back half of that losses and probably end slightly in the red. However, looking at the macro perspective, Japan's recession is deeper than what Abe's projected and Euro is likely to have some stimulus package as the eurozone is weakening. This ain't pointing well for the global economy. Oil currently fell another 1.76% to $64 on Monday, which means the energy stocks are likely to post some drag to the market.
Market Call: FLAT to downside
Date: 8 Dec 2014
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