10 May 2013 AMC
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Weekly Analysis
Week 38
Technical Updates
Briefing's Commentaries
Week in Review: S&P 500 Climbs to New Record Highs
On Monday, April retail sales and retail sales ex-auto will be reported at 8:30 ET while March business inventories will be released at 10:00 ET. Week in Review: S&P 500 Climbs to New Record Highs On Monday, the major averages ended on a mixed note as the S&P 500 rose 0.2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed five points. With no economic news of note and two major foreign markets closed (Japan and the United Kingdom), investors reacted to quarterly earnings. The now-familiar pattern of anemic top-line growth remained in effect as quarterly results from Sysco (SYY 34.20, +0.04) andTyson Foods (TSN 24.75, -0.13) missed their marks. The results weighed on the third-best performing sector of the year as the SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF(XLP 41.16, +0.16) ended lower by 0.7%.
Tuesday saw equities settle with modest gains as the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close at a new all-time high while the Dow notched its first close above 15,000. The energy sector charged out of the gate as EOG Resources (EOG 133.58, -2.50) displayed notable strength after beating on revenue. The growth-sensitive sector ended with a solid gain even as crude oil ended lower by 0.7% at $95.47. Most other cyclical sectors finished ahead of the broader market and the Dow Jones Transportation Average outperformed as well. The bellwether complex advanced 1.6% to a fresh record high as 18 of 20 components settled in the black.
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.4% to register its fifth consecutive gain. Cyclical sectors appeared weak during the opening minutes, but most economically-sensitive groups were able to rebound, and finish in the lead. The materials space displayed strength from the start as industrial metals traded higher after China reported a wider-than-expected trade surplus. Gains in copper were notable as the red metal advanced 1.7% to 3.361 per pound.
Thursday saw the S&P 500 register its first lower close of the week. The benchmark average sank to its lows amid afternoon speculation that a well-known reporter, who is considered to be a Fed-insider, may be hinting at changes to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. Although equities fell after the rumors began making the rounds, the earlier gains were shaky at best as declining issues outpaced advancers. TheCBOE Volatility Index (VIX 12.78, -0.35) settled higher after spending the entire day in positive territory, suggesting downside protection was in demand throughout the session. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1900/1100. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1659/837.
Next Week In View
Jason's Commentaries
What a start to Friday's market. Market opened with a bearish bias till lunch time and started to regain its losses and closed flat on Friday night. There are rumors that there might be changes to the QE program and that got market a little shaky. It seems that any changes in the QE will definitely throw the market off the cliff. Currently the market seems to be making a parabolic move and it's really getting scary. While May is not over yet, we might be looking at a very ugly sell-in-may if it happens. Volumes were decent at 620m shares traded on the NYSE, Healthcare and Consumer Disc led the market on Friday. It slightly bullish than bearish and I would say the bears went back to their caves by lunch time on Friday. VIX went down to 12.59 level again.
Commodities had a nasty open on Friday as well, but most commodities which includes the agri and the metals recovered together with the market. Treasuries sold off on Friday and we can see some nasty movements in the Treasuries.
On the weekly perspective, I reckon the market is likely to make new highs and it seems that the market has not found a top yet. Utilities had the toughest time for this week and we're having the discretionary stocks and the Tech stocks making significant gains. We're having quite a number of data coming out this week and it's gonna be volatile. With the housing data, CPI data and Philly Fed coming out at the later part of this week, we might be expecting some gyration. Nonetheless, I'm expecting the market to be going flat to the upside but Monday is likely to head down a little.
Market Call: FLAT to downside(<0.5%)
Date: 13 May 2013
Date: 13 May 2013
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