27 June 2013 AMC

27 June 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow +114.35 at 15024.49, Nasdaq +25.64 at 3401.87, S&P +9.94 at 1613.2 :[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 settled higher by 0.6% as nine of ten sectors posted gains.  Equities were off to the races at the sound of the opening bell, aided by today's personal income report, which pointed to an increase of 0.5% in May. The Briefing.com consensus expected personal income to rise 0.2%.  Meanwhile, personal spending increased 0.3% in May and nearly reversed the entire 0.3% decline that occurred in April. The consensus expected spending levels to increase 0.4%.  In addition, the core PCE price index increased 0.1% in May. That was up from no growth in April and exactly what the consensus expected.  Stocks received a secondary boost from the pending home sales report as May sales rose 6.7% (1.5% consensus).  The S&P notched its high of 1620 shortly after the market digested the latest housing data point. However, the index was unable to rise above that level as the 20- and 50-day moving averages served as resistance at today's high.  Today's housing data provided homebuilders with a significant boost. Although the report focused on pending home sales, strong demand in that market suggests healthy demand for new homes as well. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 22.75, +0.54) traded on its lows before the housing data sent the ETF to its best levels.  Most other cyclical groups also registered solid gains with financials settling in the lead, sporting a gain of 1.3%.  Financials were closely followed by this month's top performing group, telecom services. The high-yielding sector took a significant hit when Treasury yields began their climb in May. However, recent days have seen the sector rally even with yields not far from their recent highs.  The telecom space ended higher by 0.9% to extend its June advance to 2.6%. Meanwhile, the second-best sector of the month, consumer staples, climbed 0.9%, padding its June return to 0.4%.  On the downside, the materials space shed 0.1%. The sector was pressured by a 2.1% loss in Monsanto (MON 98.75, -2.09). Interestingly, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 22.79, +0.57) gained 2.6% despite continued weakness in gold futures, which slumped 2.6% to $1198.00 per troy ounce. This marked the first time the yellow metal traded south of the 1200 level since August 2010.  Treasuries saw some intraday weakness but ended near their highs after today's strong 7-yr auction. The benchmark 10-yr yield slipped six basis points to 2.511%.  Looking at today's remaining economic data, the initial claims level fell from an upwardly revised 355,000 (from 354,000) for the week ending June 15 to 346,000 for the week ending June 22. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 345,000.  Over the past several weeks, the initial claims level has followed a soft sawtooth path with the four-week moving average remaining nearly flat the entire time. The claims data suggest that labor market conditions have not materially changed during this time.  Tomorrow, June Chicago PMI and the final reading of the June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey will cross the wires at 9:45 and 9:55 ET, respectively. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2608/469. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1982/525.

Commodities

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Economic Events 
09:45 Chicago PMI
09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final

Conferences and Shareholder/Analyst Meetings of Interest

• Fed's Lacker (not a voting FOMC member, typically hawkish) to speak at 9:15
• Fed's Pianalto (not a voting FOMC member, typically dovish) to speak at 12:00
• Fed's Williams (not a voting FOMC member, typically dovish) to speak at 15:00

Jason's Commentaries


It seems that the window dressing has been done throughout the day. Market decided to rack up another 100 points day on the Dow again. Market started with a bullish bias and stayed at the same level throughout the session. Volumes were average and bulls definitely ruled the day with TRIN showing some divergence. Financials were the main leader in the market last night while Materials were the only laggard, with gold prices continue to enter into a slump. On the technical note, we're seeing the 50MA forming a resistance on all 3 indices. Treasuries made some upside movement last night, possible some short-covering on the treasuries. The precious metals are showing some rough session last night. It seemed that Gold's drop has been causing some major gyration in the metal markets.

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 28 June 2013

26 June 2013 AMC

26 June 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:15 ET Dow +149.83 at 14910.14, Nasdaq +28.34 at 3376.23, S&P +15.23 at 1603.26 : [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 settled higher by 1.0% as all ten sectors registered gains.  Equities began the session on an upbeat note despite today's disappointing economic news, which indicated first quarter GDP growth was revised down with the third estimate to 1.8% from 2.4%. Typically, revisions to GDP in the third estimate are very minor. The large decline in this report was very unusual and caught all economists by surprise.  Most of the downward revision came from consumption in services. In the previous estimate, services spending increased 3.1%. That was revised down to 1.7% growth and contributed 0.6 percentage points less to GDP growth.  Stocks received this news in stride as sluggish growth suggests the Federal Reserve is less likely to withdraw its support from the markets. To that end, the Treasury complex received an aggressive bid immediately after the GDP revision crossed the wires. The benchmark 10-yr yield ended lower by seven basis points at 2.542%.  There was no defined sector leadership today as health care and utilities finished atop the leaderboard while the discretionary sector and industrials followed closely.  The health care space rose 1.5% as biotechnology rallied. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 173.02, +4.38) advanced 2.6%.  Another countercyclical group, utilities, settled higher by 1.3% as today's gain allowed the rate-sensitive sector to erase its June loss and join the telecom space in positive territory for the month.  Elsewhere, the discretionary sector climbed 1.3% as most components rebounded from recent weakness. However, homebuilders remained shaky. DR Horton (DHI 20.92, +0.01) ended little changed, Toll Brothers (TOL 32.56, +0.60) added 1.9%, while the broader iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 22.21, +0.19) rose 0.9%. Despite today's advance, the homebuilders ETF is down more than 15.0% since notching its mid-May high.  Also of note, the industrial sector received a boost from transportation-related names as the Dow Jones Transportation Average added 0.8%.  Precious metals endured another rough session as gold futures fell 3.9% to $1225.00 per troy ounce while silver futures declined 5.2% to $18.50 per troy ounce. With stocks ending on their highs, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 17.22, -1.25) settled on its lowest level in more than a week.  Tomorrow, weekly initial claims, May personal income, personal spending, and core PCE prices will all be reported at 10:00 ET while the May pending home sales report will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.  The U.S. Treasury will auction $29 billion in 7-yr notes. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2346/741. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1349/1110.

Commodities

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Jason's Commentaries


Wrong again last night. It seems that market is going higher on stronger volumes. Market started with a bullish bias, after some profit taking, it started to go up all the way till closing bell. TRIN came in divergence from the start of the trading day. All sectors were up and bulls outpaced the bears by 3:1. Utilities and Healthcare managed to end the day as the strongest leaders while Materials were the weakest gainers. While on the Technical side, Dow is confronting at the resistance at 14900 while the 50MA is likely to pose as another level of resistance. As the European market is flat to the downside today, Asia had the biggest gains for the past few weeks. Shanghai Composite index is still flat to the downside. As of 5.20am ET, market is still flat to the upside. I reckon the main mover of the market today will likely to be the unemployment claims. The precious metals has been crashing down like made and gold is already at 1235, way off from the high. A few months of down trend wiped out the gains made in 3 years. What a nasty move in Gold price. There could be speculation that gold might go worthless? Perhaps Copper and Silver will be better investments than gold since they have major industrial values.Everything else aside, I believe the day is likely to move flat to the downside. What a volatile week to survive...

Market Call: FLAT to downside

Date: 27 June 2013

25 June 2013 AMC

25 June 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update

16:10 ET Dow +100.75 at 14760.31, Nasdaq +27.13 at 3347.89, S&P +14.94 at 1588.03 : [BRIEFING.COM] Equities settled near their highs, but came up a bit short in their attempt to erase yesterday's losses. The S&P 500 climbed 1.0% as all ten sectors ended with gains.  The majority of today's advance occurred in the first 90 minutes of the session amid a global rebound. Notably, China's Shanghai Composite shed 0.2% after being down as much as 5.7%. The rally off lows unfolded amid speculation The People's Bank of China will step in to resolve the ongoing liquidity crisis. However, the central bank has since reiterated its intention to remain on the sidelines. The overnight SHIBOR eased 75 basis points to 5.74% while the 1-week interbank rate rose 33 basis points to 7.64%.  Elsewhere, most European markets registered gains, but Italy's MIB fell 0.4% amid comments from an analyst at Italy's second largest bank, Mediobanca. The bank representative said the country's macroeconomic outlook has not improved and a bailout request will become inevitable. Italy's benchmark 10-yr yield rose seven basis points to 4.87%.  On a related note, U.S. Treasuries were in demand overnight, but surrendered all of their gains shortly after the open. As a result, the benchmark 10-yr yield ended higher by four basis points at 2.589%.  Interestingly, two rate-sensitive sectors vaulted to the top of this month's leaderboard despite the continued climb in Treasury yields. The telecom services sector rose 2.0%, which turned its month-to-date loss to a gain of 1.0%.  Also of note, the utilities space advanced 1.2% to trim its June loss to 1.1%.  Other defensive sectors trailed behind the broader market as consumer staples tacked on 0.1% while health care added 0.4%.  Meanwhile, cyclical groups were led by a 1.9% gain in financials. Transportation-related names displayed comparable strength as the Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped 1.9%.  Major homebuilders saw early strength before ending in mixed fashion. DR Horton (DHI 20.91, -0.01) shed 0.1%; Lennar (LEN 35.23, +0.24) gained 0.7% on better-than-expected earnings; while the broader iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB 22.03, +0.24) added 1.1%.  A fair portion of today's economic data focused on housing. The April Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index rose 12.1% while a 10.5% increase had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This follows the previous month's increase of 10.9%.  Separately, April Housing Price Index from the FHFA increased 0.7%, which follows a 1.3% increase observed during the prior month.  Also of note, new home sales topped expectations increasing from an upwardly revised 466,000 (from 454,000) in April to 476,000 in May. The Briefing.com consensus pegged new home sales at 460,000.  Durable goods orders increased 3.6% for a second consecutive month in May. The Briefing.com consensus expected durable goods orders to increase 3.0%.  As expected, a large portion of the gain came from the transportation sector. Defense and nondefense aircraft orders increased 39.2% in May after increasing 23.6% in April.  Surprisingly, the gains in durables did not end with the transportation sector. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.7% in May after increasing 1.7% in April. The consensus expected these orders to fall 0.5%.  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 81.4 in June, up from 74.3 in May and at the highest point since January 2008. The Briefing.com consensus expected consumer confidence to weaken slightly and drop to 75.0.  Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET while the third estimate of first quarter GDP will be released at 8:30 ET. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2478/591. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1779/709.

Commodities

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Jason's Commentaries


It seems that the 100MA is working its magic... All 3 indices are finding support on that moving average and bounces off together. I really wonder... what could happen if that line is broken. China sunk another 3% yesterday which did not drag Europe and US down. But whatever China is doing seems like what the Fed is doing during the Financial Crisis. Last night market started with a bullish bias and maintained their strength through the session. Volumes in NYSE were at 810m shares. With the bulls trampling over the bears. As of now, Shanghai index is down another 1% but the rest of Asia seemed to be not affected by the drop in Shanghai anymore. Dow futures were slight bearish at 1.30am ET. Treasuries sunk last night, and on top of that, the precious metals took a heavy beating as well. Silver is now down below $19 and gold is now down to $1250. Corn has a heavy gap down from $660 t0 $545. There's not much reports coming out today and the gyration is going to be quite heavy.

Market Call:FLAT to downside

Date: 26 June 2013

24 June 2013 AMC

24 June 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow -139.84 at 14659.56, Nasdaq -36.49 at 3320.76, S&P -19.34 at 1573.09 :[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began the week on a fitful note as rising interest rates at home and falling equity markets abroad conspired to keep the major averages in negative territory throughout today's trading.  The focal points on those fronts were the 10-yr note yield, which spiked to 2.66% in early action, and China's Shanghai Composite, which plummeted 5.3% overnight. The drop in China was attributed to a growing sense of angst that a liquidity crisis and credit crunch are brewing there.  That notion is predicated on the understanding that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is purposely backing away from injecting liquidity in an effort to curtail speculative excesses through the lending channel.  The PBOC fed this notion by acknowledging today that there is sufficient liquidity in the system and by admonishing Chinese banks to do a better job of cash and risk management. Whether the PBOC sticks to its guns remains to be seen, but the hardline stance it took today got the week started off on the wrong foot for global markets. It didn't help matters either that follow-through selling efforts persisted in the Treasury market.  The 10-yr note fell more than a point at its worst levels of the morning, sending its yield up to 2.66% or nearly 50 basis points above its cash settlement last Tuesday.  Contributing to that selling effort was a warning from the Bank for International Settlements that central banks should end their bond purchases and focus on inflation while letting governments spearhead the economic recovery effort. Traders wasted little time getting the US stock market on track with its foreign counterparts.  Things never got as bad as they did in China, but the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down as many as 248, 62, and 32 points, respectively, at their lows in the morning session.  That equated to a 2.0% decline for the S&P 500. The stock market, however, did show some fight when the Treasury market got off the mat.  Remarkably, the 10-year note recouped everything it lost early and traded with modest gains in the afternoon before getting some pushback late in the day.  That rebound effort saw the 10-yr yield drop back to 2.53% before it faded into the cash close and settled at 2.55%. The recovery effort in the stock market seemed to mirror that move.  The S&P 500 cuts its losses to single digits and the Dow reclaimed more than 200 points of its early losses by mid-afternoon; however, the market rolled over in the final hour as bonds faded and sellers renewed their profit-taking efforts. The global growth concerns linked to China and rising interest rates weighed heavily on the cyclical sectors throughout the day.  Financials (-1.8%) led the losses and were joined by materials (-1.7%), industrials (-1.7%), energy (-1.5%), and technology (-1.4%) as the worst-perfroming areas.  Every sector ended lower today, although the countercyclical sectors were not impacted as much by the selling interest.  The utilities sector, for instance, ended with only a negligible loss. Industrial metals also fared poorly.  Copper prices fell 1.8% to $3.04/lb.  Crude prices were a notable standout in the commodity complex, rising 1.3% to $94.93/bbl. The roller-coaster action today left the CBOE Volatility Index on its own roller-coaster ride.  It was up 10% at one point, gave that entire gain back, and then finished up 5.6% at 19.96 with the late selloff in stocks. There wasn't any economic data to trade off today, but that will change tomorrow with a full lineup that includes the April Case-Shiller Home Price Index, May Durable Goods, May New Home Sales, and June Consumer Confidence reports. Volume was heavy today with 968 mln shares traded at the NYSE.  The A/D line reflected the market's negative disposition.  Declining issues at the NYSE outnumbered advancing issues by a 7-to-1 margin while at the Nasdaq they led by a 3-to-1 margin.  ..NYSE Adv/Dec 393/2711. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 594/1951.

Commodities

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Jason's Commentaries


What a day to kick start to the week. Futures were down 1% before the start of the market, having dragged down by China woes caused by the potential liquidity crisis. The rest of Asia were being dragged down by China as well. It seems that the sell in May caused Asia to lose its entire gain for the year already. The US Market start with a very bearish tone and persisted till mid day before short-covering started which led to a rally which erased most of the losses. However, towards the closing bell, the rally started to lose its steam while the bond market closes with a gain. Oil had a magnificent rally and the precious metal had a rough ride through the day. All sectors were down last night where Utilities, Staples and Healthcare lost the least. Financials were the heaviest laggard in the market last night. Volumes were standing at over 900m shares traded in the NYSE. The bears clearly ruled the day. On the Technical side, all the indices were sitting on their 100DMA. If broken, we're going to look at some sell off again. I believe the market will continue its downtrend while Asia is showing much weakness. I believe Dow will likely to head to approx 14000 to have a solid support. As we're not having much reports coming out this week, I reckon this week is going to be really rough..

Market Call: FLAT

Date: 25 June 2013

21 June 2013 AMC Weekly Analysis

21 June 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:10 ET Dow +41.08 at 14799.4, Nasdaq -7.39 at 3357.25, S&P +4.24 at 1592.43 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended on a mixed note as the S&P 500 added 0.3% while Nasdaq shed 0.2%.  Technology stocks lagged from the opening bell with Oracle (ORCL 30.14, -3.07) contributing to the underperformance. Shares of the software company fell 9.3% in reaction to a disappointing earnings report. Other major tech components like Apple(AAPL 413.50, -3.34) and Google (GOOG 880.93, -3.81) also settled in the red. The weakness in large technology shares pressured the Nasdaq, which trailed behind the broader market throughout the day.  Equities received a midday boost off session lows after Jon Hilsenrath of The Wall Street Journal put out a piece suggesting the markets might be misreading the Fed's messages and that there were overlooked dovish signals in Chairman Bernanke's press conference. This gave the S&P some fuel for an afternoon rally.  The second-half climb stalled briefly after yet another headline made the rounds. This time, International Monetary Fund's David Lipton said the withdrawal of Federal Reserve's stimulus is a positive, but there may be a case for central banks and governments to step in if markets become disorderly.  Notably, while the Wall Street Journal story sparked a fire under equities, the Treasury market's response was limited.  Rising Treasury yields have been in focus all week with the climb continuing today. The 10-yr note began selling off prior to the start of the U.S. session and continued sliding to end on its lows. As a result, the benchmark 10-yr yield jumped almost ten basis points to 2.514%, its highest level since August 2011.  Despite the ongoing rise in yields, income-oriented sectors held up well today as telecom services and utilities ended with respective gains of 0.6% and 1.3%. The relative strength of these sectors in the face of climbing yields suggests some seller exhaustion may have taken place. Despite today's advances, the two defensive sectors ended the week with respective losses of 3.7% and 2.8%.  Also of note, the financial sector ended in line with the broader market, but major banks came under pressure after a Bloomberg story suggested U.S. regulators are kicking around the idea of doubling minimum capital requirements for the country's largest banks.Bank of America (BAC 12.70, -0.20) lost 1.5% while Citigroup (C 46.87, -1.03) settled lower by 2.2%.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 18.78, -1.71) ended near its lows after yesterday's session sent it to its highest level of the year.

Commodities

Treasuries

Weekly Analysis
Week 38



Technical Updates



 


 
Briefing's Commentaries



Week in Review: Federal Reserve Comments Taper Buying Interest The major averages ended Monday's session with solid gains. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% after spending most of the day near its highs. The index stumbled in the afternoon after a Financial Times report suggested Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was likely to discuss modifying the Fed's asset purchase program at Wednesday's press conference.Netflix (NFLX 216.90, -6.62) jumped 7.1% after the company announced a multi-year partnership with DreamWorks Animation (DWA 24.28, -0.17). 

On Tuesday, the major averages ended higher across the board and the S&P 500 advanced 0.8%. Equities climbed steadily since the opening bell as investors prepared for Wednesday's policy decision. The steady climb leading into the Wednesday session suggests investors expected mostly reassuring words from Chairman Bernanke. 

The first half of Wednesday's session was rather uneventful, but the afternoon FOMC Statement and subsequent comments from Chairman Bernanke sent equities and Treasuries to their lows while also providing a significant boost to the dollar. During his remarks, Chairman Bernanke said if conditions continue to improve, the Fed could reduce the pace of purchases later this year with a potential end to purchases coming in the middle of 2014. He also suggested downside risks have diminished since the fall, but the Fed will not sell securities as long as the market remains in normalization stage. The Dollar Index saw the sharpest post-FOMC move as investors dumped other currencies in favor of the greenback. The afternoon bid sent the Index higher by 0.9% and allowed it to regain its 200-day moving average. Elsewhere, Treasuries fell victim to aggressive selling pressure as a loss of more than one point ran the 10-yr yield up 14 basis points to 2.332%. This marked the highest close since March 2012. 

On Thursday, equities ended with sharp losses across the board as Wednesday's selling persisted into the next day, and dragged global shares into the fray. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% after losing its 50-day moving average at the open. Elevated Treasury yields contributed to selling in high-yielding, defensively oriented sectors. To that end, the consumer staples sector led to the downside with a loss of 3.0%. Health care (-2.6%) and utilities (-2.9%) also saw significant selling. Precious metals had a flashback to mid-April as gold sank 6.8% to $1280.10 per ounce while silver dropped 9.4% to $19.59 per ounce. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1534/1521. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1486/1016.

  Raytheon Missile Systems Co., Tucson, Ariz., was awarded a sole-source, cost-plus-incentive-fee contract modification to contract HQ0276-13-C-0001.  The total value of this effort is $126,000,000, increasing the total contract value from $53,446,254 to $179,446,254.  Under this modification, the contractor will procure the material required to manufacture up to 29 SM-3 Block IB missiles.  Work will be performed in Tucson, Ariz.  with an estimated completion date of Sept. 30, 2016.  Fiscal 2013 Defense Wide Procurement funds will be used to fund this effort.  Contract funds will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year.  This is not a foreign military sales acquisition.  Missile Defense Agency, Dahlgren, Va., is the contracting activity.


  Next Week In View



Jason's Commentaries

This week is really a very bearish week. Monday and Tuesday were apparently market pricing in for FOMC statements. After FOMC statements, where the Fed stated that they might taper QE later this year or in 2014. The key thing is, they're going to taper no matter what. The tapering of QE will likely not happen when Ben Bernanke is in office. After the release of FOMC statements, market went into a 2 day straight loss which wiped out the entire gains in May and June. Asia was also not spared from this bearish menace. STI wiped out its entire year's gain. Asia was also hammered by the fact that China's data was overstated.

Volume on Friday was at 1600m shares traded on NYSE on a expiration Friday. Bulls and Bears were approx having the same strength. Sectors were mixed with Tech and Materials down by 1% . Market was being lifted by Staples and Healthcare. On the broader sector movement, most sectors are being hammered and is on a down trend. On the technical side, it seemed that the market is likely to head down to 14200 on the Dow.

On the weekly side, we're heading towards the end of June. It seems that Sell in May has been pushed back to June. Perhaps Sell in May will end in June. Since we do not have much data coming out this week, perhaps we're likely end the week flat while the market is looking to gain back some gains that it lost from this week. Heads up for the volatility!

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 24 June 2013