27 Nov 2013 AMC- Apple and HP held the market at the top once again...
Market Summary
European
Markets Closing Prices
European
markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
·
UK's FTSE: + 0.2%
·
Germany's DAX: + 0.7%
·
France's CAC: + 0.4%
·
Spain's IBEX: + 1.0%
·
Portugal's PSI: + 1.9%
·
Italy's MIB Index: + 0.8%
·
Irish Ovrl Index: + 0.6%
·
Greece ATHEX Composite: + 2.1%
Before Market Opens
Briefing Bullet Points: 26 minutes
ahead of the open S&P futures are +3 vs. fair value and DJ futures are +35
·
US
Equities
o Equity futures point to modest gains at the open
after yesterday's late-day slide wiped away a good portion of the day's
advance.
o The Dow still manged to close at record highs
while the Nasdaq finished above the 4000 mark for the first time in 13
years.
o The S&P 500 was unable to finish at all-time
highs, but managed to hold the 1800 mark.
o Data out this morning showed U.S. durable orders
post a better than expected -2.0% (-2.2% expected) while the ex-transportation
reading missed with a -0.1% print (+0.2% expected). Initial claims improved to
316K (326K previous) while continuing claims slid to 2776K (2867K previous).
The claims data continues to be impacted by seasonal adjustment problems.
·
Asia
o Markets ended mixed amid a quiet trade as
foreign activity was light ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
o Profit-taking continued in Japan's Nikkei
(-0.4%) as shares pulled back for a second session. Many participants are
keeping a watchful eye on relations with China as it was reported a couple
Japanese commercial jets flew over the Chinese no-fly zone encompassing the
disputed Senkaku Islands. This follows yesterday's fly-over by two U.S. B52
bombers.
o China's Shanghai Composite (+0.8%) shrugged off
the latest conflict with Japan, climbing for the first time in five days.
o Overnight, the Thai central bank surprised with
a 25bp cut to 2.25% as the recent political tension coupled with a slowing
economy provoked the decision. Evidence of a slowing economy could be seen in
the latest trade data, which swung to a deficit of $1.77 bln (+$0.47 bln
previous). The central bank also lowered its 2013 growth estimate to 3% from
3.7% while dropping its 2014 outlook to 4% from 4.8%.
o Data from the rest of the region saw Australia's
construction work done climb a strong 2.7% QoQ (0.6% QoQ expected) and South
Korea's business confidence drop to 78 (81 previous).
·
Europe
o Markets are higher across Europe as the
periphery leads the charge (Spain's IBEX +0.5% and Italy's MIB +0.9%) on
continued speculation the ECB will look to further ease conditions.
o Germany's DAX (+0.3%) sports a modest gain after
GfK German Consumer Climate (7.4 actual v 7.1 expected, 7.1 previous) posted
its best reading in six years.
o Spanish Bonos have given up their early gains,
and now hold just off the lows. An early bid dropped the 2y to 1.250%, its
lowest level in more than four years
o French OATs are under pressure after the latest
consumer confidence reading slipped to 84 (85 expected, 85 previous). Moderate
selling has yields across most of the curve +5bps with the 10y up to 2.170%.
·
Treasuries
o Modest selling weighs heaviest on the belly of
the curve with the 5y +4.1bps @ 1.343%.
o Traders continue to monitor the 10y as a +1.8bp
advance to 2.714% has action ticking off the 2.700% support level.
·
Fx
o The Dollar Index is pressing session lows near
80.50.
o Notable is today weakness against the British
pound (GBPUSD +105 pips @ 1.6320), which is holding at its best levels since
the first trading day of 2013. This area will be in focus as it has provided a
lid since September 2011.
o The greenback trades higher against the Japanese
yen (USDJPY +50 pips @ 101.75) and Canadian dollar (+30 pips @ 1.0565).
·
Commodities
o Precious metals are firm with gold +$9 @ $1250
and silver +$0.10 @ $19.95
o Crude oil is under pressure, holding on session
lows and trading -$1.43 @ $93.25
·
Earnings/Guidance
o Hewlett Packard (HPQ) is +6%
after a better than feared report; Q4 EPS was $1.01 vs. the $1.00 consensus;
revenues fell 2.8% year/year to $29.13 bln vs the $27.89 bln consensus; co
guided Q1 EPS in-line and reaffirmed FY14 EPS guidance
o Tillys (TLYS) is -20% after reporting
Q3 EPS in-line at $0.22 on rev of $124 mln vs. the $133 mln consensus; co
guided for Q4 EPS of $0.15-0.21 vs. the $0.35 consensus; with comps down in the
mid ot high single digits; William Blair and Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock
this morning
o Elementos (ELTK) is up over 20% at a
multiyear high after profit more than tripled YoY
o Frontline (FRO) is +10% after
an in-line Q3 net loss
o Analog Devices (ADI) is -4%
after beating Q4 EPS on lower than expeted rev; co guided Q1 below
consensus
o Infoblox (BLOX) is -18% after
beating Q1 EPS on in-line rev; co guided Q2 below consensus and reaffirmed FY14
guidance, expectations were elevated for this high multiple growth stock
o Tivo (TIVO) is flat after
beating Q3 EPS on in-line rev; co guided Q4 rev in-line with profits below
estimates; Evercore downgraded the stock the Equal Weight this morning
·
News
o Lime Energy (LIME) Board terminates
employment of CEO John O'Rourke, promotes Adam Procell to be CEO
o Durata Therapeutics (DRTX) announces
FDA's acceptance for priority review of NDA for Dalvance (dalbavancin
hydrochloride)
o NuStar Energy (NS) President and CEO Curt
Anastasio to retire at year-end
o GNC Holdings (GNC) announces $500 mln
share repurchase authorization; term loan increase and repricing
o Provident Fincl (PROV) announces new
~500k share stock repurchase plan
o Velti (VELT) fell 17% after co announced
voluntary delisting from NASDAQ.
o CVD Equipment (CVV) disclosed a customer
has made an assignment for the benefit of creditors
o LATAM Airlines (LFL) announced it expects
to improve profitability (in 2014) and estimate operating margins for the full
year 2014 to be in the range of 6% to 8%
o Descartes (DSGX) announced that Edward
Ryan has been appointed as Descartes' CEO; Scott Pagan has been appointed COO;
sees Q3 revs above consensus
o Green Mtn Coffee (GMCR): Two Directors
disclose stock purchases; Directors bought a total of 20K shares, worth $1.4
mln
·
Syndicate
o Acasti Pharma (ACST) commences public
offering of units of Acasti, each Unit consisting of one Class A share and one
Common Share purchase warrant of Acasti; size not disclosed
o Dover (DOV) announces $300 mln euro
offering
o Manulife Financial (MFC) subsidiary,
Manufacturers Life Insurance, intends to issue $250 mln principal amount of
2.926% fixed/floating subordinated debentures due November 29, 2023
o Pinnacle Foods (PF) files for 17 mln
share common stock offering by selling shareholders
o Education Mgmt (EDMC) filed for a $1 bln
mixed securities shelf offering
o Stereotaxis (STXS) announces results of
rights offering; subscription rights to purchase ~ 3.4 mln shares of common
stock were exercised, resulting in gross proceeds to co of ~ $10.2 mln
o Atlantic Coast Federal (ACFC) prices
offering of $42.0 mln of its common stock at $3.75 per share
·
Analyst
Actions
o Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) upgraded to Equal
Weight from Underweight at Evercore
o Copa Holdings (CPA) downgraded to Sell
from Neutral at UBS
o Intel (INTC) downgraded to Sector Perform
from Outperform at RBC Capital Mks
o Tilly's (TLYS) downgraded to Neutral from
Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $12; downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform
at William Blair; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey;
tgt lowered to $13 from $20; target lowered to $12 from $15 at Mizuho following
earnings
·
Technical
Factors
o The S&P was able to extend the rebound off
last week's low to as much as 31 points (+1.7%) during the final hour push to
set a new all time intraday high of 1808.42. It ended firmer but under Friday's
close high and the late day slip created an upper tail.
o Overall, most of the last two sessions has been
marked by range trade (1800-1808) but it needs to sustained a move back through
1805 in order to neutralize a potential weaker pattern that developed over the
last half hour.
o Resistance above is in the 1810/1812 zone. First
level support is at 1797/1795.
·
Looking
Ahead
o Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45am ET, and will be
followed by Michigan Sentiment - Final at 9:55am ET and leading indicators at
10am ET.
o Treasury will auction $29B 7y notes.
o RENN will report following today's closing bell while GCO is scheduled
to release its quarterly results ahead of Friday's open.
o U.S. Markets are closed tomorrow for
Thanksgiving. Friday will see U.S. equity markets close at 1pm ET and the U.S.
Treasury market finish at 2pm ET.
Market Internals
Leaders and Laggards
Technical Updates
Briefing's Commentaries
Closing Market Summary: Stocks Climb
as Nasdaq Leads Again
Equity indices posted modest gains with the Nasdaq (+0.7%) setting the pace for a second consecutive day. The tech-heavy index climbed steadily throughout the session, extending its week-to-date advance to 1.3%.
The Nasdaq received support from many of its top components as Apple (AAPL 545.96, +12.56), Oracle (ORCL 35.29, +0.36), Microsoft (MSFT 37.60, +0.25), and Intel (INTC 23.90, +0.25) gained between 0.7% and 2.4%. Momentum names also contributed to the strength despite starting the session on a mixed note. However, biotechnology sat out the advance as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 223.33, -0.12) shed 0.1%.
The outperformance of the Nasdaq boosted the technology sector (+1.0%), which ended in the lead. Among notable earnings, Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.36, +2.27) surged 9.1% after beating bottom-line estimates by one cent on above-consensus revenue.
Other sectors did not display comparable strength as only three groups—consumer discretionary (+0.3%), financials (+0.3%), and industrials (+0.4%)—ended ahead of the broader market.
Discretionary shares were underpinned by retailers as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 88.54, +0.45) climbed 0.5%.
Meanwhile, the financial space followed the lead of regional banks as the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE 40.02, +0.22) rose 0.6%.
For its part, the industrial sector displayed all-around strength as defense contractors and transports rallied. The PHLX Defense Index rose 0.7% while the Dow Jones Transportation Average settled higher by 0.6%.
Although most cyclical groups posted gains, energy (-0.7%) was not as fortunate. The sector ended at the bottom of the leaderboard while crude oil fell 1.5% to $92.29 per barrel.
On the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.1%), health care (unch), telecom services (+0.1%), and utilities (-0.3%) lagged across the board.
Treasuries ended mixed as the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 2.74% while the 2-yr yield dipped one basis point to 0.28%.
Trading volume was well below average as only 532 million shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE.
This morning was busy in terms of economic data. Weekly initial claims were better than expected, declining 10,000 to 316,000 (Briefing.com consensus 330,000). In turn, continuing claims also beat estimates, dropping by 91,000 to 2.776 million (Briefing.com consensus 2.875 million).
Seasonal adjustment problems were cited as a factor for the low level of initial claims, so once again we'll have to put an asterisk next to a number that looks encouraging at first blush. In all likelihood, the initial claims level will move higher as the seasonal adjustment problem gets corrected.
Separately, the durable orders headlines weren't all that encouraging. Total orders declined 2.0% in October (consensus -2.2%) from an upwardly revised 4.1% increase in September (from 3.8%). Excluding transportation, orders declined 0.1% (consensus 0.2%) from an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in September (from -0.1%).
The upward revisions to September's data cushioned some of the blow of the downturn in October. The report though was still disappointing in terms of what it said about business investment, which is that it is weak.
Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, declined by 1.2% after a 1.4% decline in September. Shipments of those goods, which factor into the GDP computation, declined by 0.2% for the second straight month.
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region remained strong. The Chicago PMI fell to 63.0 in November from 65.9 in October. That was the first time since November/December 2011 that the index stayed above 60 for two consecutive months. The Briefing.com consensus expected the Chicago PMI to fall to 58.0.
Lastly, the final reading of the November Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was revised up to 75.1 from 72.0 (consensus 73.0) while October Leading Indicators ticked up 0.2% (consensus -0.1%).
Bond and equity markets will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the equity market will close early at 13:00 ET.
Equity indices posted modest gains with the Nasdaq (+0.7%) setting the pace for a second consecutive day. The tech-heavy index climbed steadily throughout the session, extending its week-to-date advance to 1.3%.
The Nasdaq received support from many of its top components as Apple (AAPL 545.96, +12.56), Oracle (ORCL 35.29, +0.36), Microsoft (MSFT 37.60, +0.25), and Intel (INTC 23.90, +0.25) gained between 0.7% and 2.4%. Momentum names also contributed to the strength despite starting the session on a mixed note. However, biotechnology sat out the advance as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 223.33, -0.12) shed 0.1%.
The outperformance of the Nasdaq boosted the technology sector (+1.0%), which ended in the lead. Among notable earnings, Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.36, +2.27) surged 9.1% after beating bottom-line estimates by one cent on above-consensus revenue.
Other sectors did not display comparable strength as only three groups—consumer discretionary (+0.3%), financials (+0.3%), and industrials (+0.4%)—ended ahead of the broader market.
Discretionary shares were underpinned by retailers as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 88.54, +0.45) climbed 0.5%.
Meanwhile, the financial space followed the lead of regional banks as the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE 40.02, +0.22) rose 0.6%.
For its part, the industrial sector displayed all-around strength as defense contractors and transports rallied. The PHLX Defense Index rose 0.7% while the Dow Jones Transportation Average settled higher by 0.6%.
Although most cyclical groups posted gains, energy (-0.7%) was not as fortunate. The sector ended at the bottom of the leaderboard while crude oil fell 1.5% to $92.29 per barrel.
On the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.1%), health care (unch), telecom services (+0.1%), and utilities (-0.3%) lagged across the board.
Treasuries ended mixed as the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 2.74% while the 2-yr yield dipped one basis point to 0.28%.
Trading volume was well below average as only 532 million shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE.
This morning was busy in terms of economic data. Weekly initial claims were better than expected, declining 10,000 to 316,000 (Briefing.com consensus 330,000). In turn, continuing claims also beat estimates, dropping by 91,000 to 2.776 million (Briefing.com consensus 2.875 million).
Seasonal adjustment problems were cited as a factor for the low level of initial claims, so once again we'll have to put an asterisk next to a number that looks encouraging at first blush. In all likelihood, the initial claims level will move higher as the seasonal adjustment problem gets corrected.
Separately, the durable orders headlines weren't all that encouraging. Total orders declined 2.0% in October (consensus -2.2%) from an upwardly revised 4.1% increase in September (from 3.8%). Excluding transportation, orders declined 0.1% (consensus 0.2%) from an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in September (from -0.1%).
The upward revisions to September's data cushioned some of the blow of the downturn in October. The report though was still disappointing in terms of what it said about business investment, which is that it is weak.
Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, declined by 1.2% after a 1.4% decline in September. Shipments of those goods, which factor into the GDP computation, declined by 0.2% for the second straight month.
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region remained strong. The Chicago PMI fell to 63.0 in November from 65.9 in October. That was the first time since November/December 2011 that the index stayed above 60 for two consecutive months. The Briefing.com consensus expected the Chicago PMI to fall to 58.0.
Lastly, the final reading of the November Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was revised up to 75.1 from 72.0 (consensus 73.0) while October Leading Indicators ticked up 0.2% (consensus -0.1%).
Bond and equity markets will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the equity market will close early at 13:00 ET.
·
Russell 2000 +34.4%
YTD
·
Nasdaq +34.0% YTD
·
S&P 500 +26.7%
YTD
·
DJIA +22.8% YTD
Commodities
Precious metals erased earlier gains as better-than-anticipated economic data released this morning lifted the dollar index and pressured the commodities space. The Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment and leading indicators all topped estimates.
Dec gold pulled back from its session high of $1253.50 per ounce set moments after floor trade opened and dipped into negative territory by late morning action. It touched a session low of $1237.00 per ounce and settled with a 0.3% loss at $1238.00 per ounce.
Dec silver also fell into the red after touching a session high of $19.99 per ounce in early morning pit trade. Unable to regain momentum, it settled at $19.63 per ounce, or 1.1% lower.
Jan crude oil extended losses for a fourth consecutive session as it fell deeper into negative territory following the bullish economic data and higher-than-expected build in inventories. The EIA reported that for the week ending Nov 22, crude oil inventories increased by 2.953 mln barrels when consensus called for a smaller buid of 0.775 mln barrels. The energy component dipped to a session low of $91.77 per barrel and eventually settled with a 1.5% loss at $92.29 per barrel.
Jan natural gas, on the other hand, was the outperformer in the energy space as it lifted from its session low of $3.84 per MMBtu set at floor trade open and recovered into positive territory. It advanced to a session high of $3.92 per MMBtu following inventory data that showed a draw of 13 bcf when a draw of 10-13 bcf was anticipated and settled with a 1.0% gain at $3.90 per MMBtu.
COMEX
Metals Closing Prices
Dec gold fell $3.20 to $1238.00/ounce
·
Gold erased earlier
gains as better-than-anticipated economic data released this morning lifted the
dollar index and pressured the commodities space. The Chicago PMI, Michigan
Sentiment and leading indicators all topped estimates. The yellow metal pulled
back from its session high of $1253.50 set moments after floor trade opened and
dipped into negative territory by late morning action. It touched a session low
of $1237.00 and settled with a 0.3% loss.
Dec silver fell $0.22 to $19.63/ounce
·
Silver also fell into
the red after touching a session high of $19.99 in early morning pit trade.
Unable to regain momentum, it settled 1.1% lower.
Dec
copper fell 1 cent to $3.20/lb
CBOT
Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices
·
Dec
corn settled unchanged at
$4.18/bushel
·
Dec
wheat rose 7 cents to
$6.53/bushel
·
Jan
soybeans fell 10 cents to
$13.19/bushel
·
Dec
ethanol rose 11 cents to
$2.03/gallon
·
Jan
sugar (#16 (U.S.)) rose
0.08 of a penny to 20.25 cents/lbs
NYMEX
Energy Closing Prices
Jan crude oil fell $1.36 to $92.29/barrel
·
Crude oil fell for a
fourth consecutive session as the dollar lifted on better-than-anticipated
economic data and inventories showed a higher-than-expected build. The EIA
reported that for the week ending Nov 22, crude oil inventories had a build of
2.953 mln when consensus called for a smaller build of 0.775 mln. The energy
component dipped to a session low of $91.77 in early afternoon pit action and
eventually settled with a 1.5% loss.
Jan natural gas rose 4 cents to $3.90/MMBtu
·
Natural gas, on the other
hand, outperformed in the energy space as it lifted from its session low of
$3.84 set at floor trade open and recovered into positive territory. Prices
advanced to a session high of $3.92 following inventory data that showed a draw
of 13 bcf when a draw of 10-13 bcf was expected. Natural gas consolidated
slightly below that level and settled with a 1.0% gain.
Jan heating oil settled unchanged at $3.04/gallon
Jan
RBOB gasoline rose 2 cents to $2.70/gallon
Treasuries
Treasuries Slide for First Time in
Five Days: 10-yr: -07/32..2.742%..USD/JPY: 102.15..EUR/USD: 1.3570
·
Treasuries finished with
moderate losses as trade pushed lower for the first time in five days as
a result of mostly better than expected data and a tepid 7y note auction. Click here to see an intraday
yields chart.
·
The complex hugged the
flat line for much of the overnight session before sliding to fresh lows
following the better than expected Chicago PMI (63.0 actual v. 58.0
expected) and Michigan Sentiment - Final (75.1 actual; v. 73.0 expected) data.
·
Then, sellers dropped
trade to its worst levels of the session in response to the ugly $28 bln 7y
note auction. The auction drew 2.106% and a weak 2.36x bid/cover as both
indirect (34.1%) and direct (16.1%) bids fell short of their 12-auction
averages. Primary dealers ended up with 48.2% of the supply. It should be
noted, the meager results may have been impacted by the unusual timing
of the auction (11:30 am ET), which was a result of the holiday trade.
·
Traders than used the
weakness as a buying opportunity as maturities across the complex rallied back
to pre-auction levels ahead of the cash close.
·
Today's
selling weighed heaviest on yields in the belly of the curve as the 5y tacked on +6bps, ending @
1.362%. The yield tested the 1.400% level after today's disappointing auction,
but action managed to slip back below the 50 dma (1.371%).
·
The 10y held 2.700%
before ending the day +4bps @ 2.736%. Traders continue to watch the 2.800%
level as a breakout sets up a potential retest of the October highs near
3.000%.
·
At the long end, the 30y
added just +2.7bps to close @ 3.812%. The uptick came after support in the
3.800% area withstood an early test.
·
A
steeper curve played out as the 2-10-yr spread widened to 245bps.
·
Precious metals ended in
the red with gold -$5 @ $1236 and silver -$0.24 @ $19.60.
·
Markets
are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the U.S. equity market will
close at 1pm ET while the U.S. Treasury market will finish at 2pm ET.
Next Day In View
Economic Commentary
Economic Summary:Durable orders
decline roughly in line with expectations; Chicago PMI tops expectations;
Leading indicators positive
Economic Data Summary:
Economic Data Summary:
·
Weekly MBA Mortgage
Applications -0.3% vs Briefing.com consensus of ; Last Week was -2.3%
·
Weekly Initial Claims
316K vs Briefing.com consensus of 330K; Last Week was revised to 326K from 323K
·
Weekly Continuing Claims
2.776 M vs Briefing.com consensus of 2.875 M ; Last Week was revised to 2.867 M
from 2.876 M
·
October
Durable Orders -2.0% vs Briefing.com consensus of -2.2%; September was revised
to 4.1% from 3.8%
·
October Durable Orders
Ex-Transportation -0.1% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; September was
revised to 0.2% from -0.2%
o There was some concern that the durable
goods data would show a much larger decline as government orders were delayed
from the shutdown. Government orders did fall 14.4%, but it was not enough to
drive overall orders below expectations. That majority of the decline was the
result of a pullback in aircraft orders. After increasing by 46.4% in
September, nondefense and defense aircraft demand fell 16.7% in October. That
drop was in-line with weak orders reported by Boeing (BA). Excluding
transportation, orders were down 0.1% after increasing an upwardly revised 0.2%
(from -0.2%) in September. The consensus expected these orders to increase
0.2%. Most of the regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys pointed toward
an acceleration in orders growth in October.
·
November
Chicago PMI 63.0 vs Briefing.com consensus of 58.0; October was 65.9
o That was the first time since November/December
2011 that the index stayed above 60 for two consecutive months. The
Briefing.com consensus expected the Chicago PMI to fall to 58.0. With the index
running so strong over the last few months -- increasing from a 51.6 in June to
the current highs -- a normal cyclical pullback was expected. That never
materialized.
·
November Michigan
Sentiment 75.1 vs Briefing.com consensus of 73.0; October was revised to 0.9%
from 72.0
o .Still, media attention toward the failings of
the Affordable Care Act will likely keep sentiment levels from spiking in the
near term. The Expectations Index was revised up to 66.8 from 62.3 in the
preliminary reading. That is up from 62.5 in October. The Present Conditions
Index increased to 88.0 from 87.1 in the preliminary reading. Consumption
growth relies on income gains and not changes in sentiment. As long as income
growth remains positive, upward moving consumption trends should follow.
·
October
Leading Indicators 0.2% vs Briefing.com consensus of -0.15; September was 0.7%
o In this case, the Conference Board assumed
that orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft would increase in
October. As today's durable goods report showed, that assumption was wrong.
Orders of business capital goods fell 1.2%, which means future revisions will
likely pull the index down toward the consensus expectation.
Other International Events of
Interest
·
Markets are higher
across Europe as the periphery leads the charge (Spain's IBEX +0.5% and Italy's
MIB +0.9%) on continued speculation the ECB will look to further ease
conditions.
On other news....
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Nov 22, 2013
Production: U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 15.6 mln barrels per day (bpd) during the week ending November 22, 2013, 104 thousand bpd higher than the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 89.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging over 9.4 mln bpd. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.0 mln bpd.
Imports: U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.7 mln bpd last week, down by 145 thousand bpd from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.7 mln bpd, 3.5% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 710 thousand bpd. Distillate fuel imports averaged 158 thousand bpd last week.
Inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.0 mln barrels from the previous week. At 391.4 mln barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 mln barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 mln barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range for this time of year.
Demand: Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 20.1 mln bpd, up by 5.9% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.0 mln bpd, up by 4.7% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 mln bpd over the last four weeks, up by 5.9% from the same period last year.
Currencies
Dollar
Reverses to Highs: 10-yr: -09/32..2.745%..USD/JPY: 102.14..EUR/USD: 1.3568
The
Dollar Index holds on session highs near 80.75 after early selling was unable
to penetrate the key 80.50 area. Today's reversal comes as U.S. economic data was generally better
than expected with Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment - Final being
notable beats. Click here to see a daily Dollar
Index chart.
·
EURUSD is -5 pips @ 1.3565 as trade presses the 50 dma
(1.3558). The single currency saw an early rush through the 1.3600 level,
boosted by the strongest GfK German Consumer Climate report in six
years and headlines indicating German Chancellor Angela Merkel
was able to form a coalition government. However, the strong U.S. data
sparked a reversal that has some looking for further downside over the coming
days. Eurozone data is heavy with M3 money supply, German preliminary CPI,
German unemployment change, and the Spanish Home Price Index due out.
·
GBPUSD is +55 pips @ 1.6270 as trade readies
for its best close in 11 months. Early gains saw the pair pierce the 1.6330
mark, but action has pulled off its best levels due to the broad-based strength
of the greenback. Bulls are hoping the 1.6250 area will now provide support.
The Bank of England Financial Stability Report will accompany Mark
Carney's Press Conference.
·
USDCHF is +25 pips @ .9090 with today's bid retaking
the 50 dma (.9077). Bulls had an early scare this morning as trade slipped
below key .9060 support, and traded all the way down to .9040. Swiss data is
limited to GDP.
·
USDJPY is +85 pips @ 102.10 as action looks
likely to post its best close in six months. Traders remain focused on the
103.00 area, which corresponds with the May highs and is home to the best print
since October 2008. Japan's retail sales will be released tonight.
·
AUDUSD is -55 pips @ .9065 as sellers remain in
control for a sixth day. Today's weakness has the hard currency trading at
its worst levels in almost three months, and has many believing it is only a
matter of time before a test of the August lows near .8900. Australian data
includes HIA New Home Sales and private capital expenditure.
·
USDCAD is +60 pips @ 1.0595 as trade looks to
post its best close since August 2010. Traders will be keying in on
the 1.0600 region over the coming sessions Canada's current account balance and
Raw Materials Price Index are scheduled for tomorrow.
Jason's Commentaries
It seems that the market is not ready to go down just yet. Volumes were way pathetic at 484m shares trading on Wednesday, internals were just pointing slightly to the upside, but lacking of a lot of commitment due to Thanksgiving holiday. On Wednesday, we're having Tech and Industrials being the strongest leaders as Tech gained 0.79% and Industrials gained 0.4%. Apple and HP were the main reason why the market held up the highs as Apple gained 2.35% and HP gaining a 5.05%. It seems to me that we're definitely at the market high now and we might be going through a short term retracement soon. Possibly if the Black Friday retail sales is bad, we're likely to go down quick.. Market will be closing by 1pm ET today and bonds market will be closing at 2pm ET. Meanwhile, enjoy your Thanksgiving and shop more!
Market Call: FLAT to upside
Date: 29 Nov 2013
