Thursday 7 November 2013

7 Nov 2013 AMC- Market sunk despite better than expected GDP results and lowering of interest rates by ECB


7 Nov 2013 AMC- Market sunk despite better than expected GDP results and lowering of interest rates by ECB
Market Summary 




European Markets Closing Prices
European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
·         UK's FTSE: -0.7%
·         Germany's DAX: + 0.4%
·         France's CAC: -0.1%
·         Spain's IBEX: -1.0%
·         Portugal's PSI: -0.1%
·         Italy's MIB Index: -2.1%
·         Irish Ovrl Index: -0.1%
·         Greece ATHEX Composite: + 1.3%

Before Market Opens



S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.20.
The S&P 500 futures continue to hover near their pre-market highs (+0.3%).

Markets across most of Asia finished in the red as a quiet trade persisted. China's Shanghai Composite (-0.5%) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.7%) saw moderate losses as traders remain on edge ahead of this weekend's Third Plenum of Communist Party policy makers, which will likely produce an economic blueprint for the next decade. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei (-0.8%) was pressured as participants shed risk ahead of tomorrow's U.S. nonfarm payroll report. Gains were limited to some of the emerging markets such as Indonesia's Jakarta Composite (+0.8%) and Malaysia's Bursa Malaysia (+0.2%). Speaking of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia held its key rate unchanged at 3.00%, as expected. Also notable, S&P warned India of a possible downgrade. Data from the region saw Australia's employment change print 1.1K (10.3K expected) while its unemployment rate held steady at an upwardly revised 5.7% (5.6% previous). Elsewhere, Taiwan's trade surplus shrank to TWD10.2 billion (TWD67.7 billion previous) and Thai consumer confidence slipped to 76.6 (77.9 previous). Lastly, Japan's Leading Index improved to 109.5 from 106.8 (109.4 expected). 
·         In Japan, the Nikkei closed lower by 0.8% as trade slipped back below the 50-day moving average. Automakers were weak for a second day as Mitsubishi Motors and Toyota Motor gave up 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively. 
·         Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.7% as only a handful of names saw gains. Financial and energy names were among the laggards as Bank of Communications lost 1.8% and Cnooc gave up 1.2%. On the upside, Lenovo added 2.1% after its earnings beat. 
·         In China, the Shanghai Composite lost 0.5% as trade slid to a two-month low. 
Major European indices trade at their best levels of the session following the European Central Bank decision to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%. The euro tumbled over 150 pips against the dollar in reaction to the decision, sending the single currency below 1.3350 against the greenback. Elsewhere, the Bank of England made no changes to its current policy stance, maintaining its key interest rate and the purchasing program at their respective 0.5% and GBP375 billion. In economic data, Germany's industrial production fell 0.9% month-over-month (-0.2% expected, 1.6% prior) and Spain's industrial production rose 1.4% month-over-month (-1.5% forecast, -2.1% last). Elsewhere, Swiss SECO Consumer Climate improved to -5 from -9 (-4 consensus). 
·         Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.5% as miners display strength. Randgold Resources trades up 7.2% after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Asset manager Schroders trades lower by 2.3% despite reporting strong results. 
·         In Germany, the DAX sports a gain of 1.6% as Commerzbank leads. The bank is higher by 11.4% following upbeat results. On the downside, HeidelbergCement is lower by 4.4% in reaction to disappointing earnings. 
·         In France, the CAC trades up 1.5% as 35 of 40 names register gains. Financials lead with Credit Agricole and Societe Generale up 7.0% and 5.0%, respectively.



Market Internals







Market Internals -Technical-
The Nasdaq closed down 75 (-1.90%) at 3857, the S&P 500 closed down 23 (-1.32%) at 1747, and the Dow closed down 153 (-0.97%) at 15594. Action came on above average volume (NYSE 910 mln vs. avg. of 731; NASDAQ 2222 mln vs. avg. of 1791), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 687/2411, NASDAQ 574/1977) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 122/42, NASDAQ 80/60).

Relative Strength: 
Volatility-VXX +3.54%, Coffee-JO +2.69%, 20+ Year Treasuries-TLT +0.85%, Japanese Yen-FXY +0.70%, Natural Gas-UNG +0.58%, U.S. Dollar-UUP +0.46%.

Relative Weakness: 
Clean Energy-PBW -4.64%, Social Media-SOCL -3.84%, Junior Gold Miners-GDXJ -3.80%, Italy-EWI -3.67%, Poland-EPOL -2.86%, Copper Miners-COPX -2.83%, Oil and Gas Exploration-XOP -2.80%, Spain-EWP -2.75%, Egypt-EGPT -2.67%, South Africa-EZA -2.20%.



Leaders and Laggards









Technical Updates









Briefing's Commentaries 


Closing Market Summary: Nasdaq Leads Stocks Lower
The major averages ended on their lows after opening gains turned into broad-based losses. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% while the Nasdaq underperformed with a decline of 1.9%.

Prior to the open, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% after recent data suggested the price level is moving away from the ECB's inflation target. The rate cut fueled a surge in the dollar while also sparking a risk bid. However, the equity gains were capped after a better-than-expected headline Q3 GDP reading (2.8% versus 2.5% Briefing.com consensus) fostered renewed speculation about a potential tapering announcement coming sooner rather than later.

The immediate reaction in Treasuries also reflected a ‘taper on' trade as bonds sold off, sending the 10-yr yield from its low to a session high. However, Treasuries returned to their best levels of the day as weakness among equities redirected some flows into safe-haven assets. The 10-yr yield ended lower by four basis points at 2.61%.

The Nasdaq paced today's decline as momentum names saw a continuation of yesterday's weakness. Facebook (FB 47.56, -1.56), LinkedIn (LNKD 211.47, -9.31), Priceline.com (PCLN 1022.89, -35.15), Tesla (TSLA 139.77, -11.39), and Yelp (YELP 61.83, -4.78), lost between 3.2% and 7.5% with Tesla seeing added pressure in reaction to reports of another car fire after the vehicle hit some debris on the road. The index was also pressured by Qualcomm (QCOM 67.09, -2.65) after the company reported disappointing results combined with cautious guidance.

Even though the tech-heavy Nasdaq lagged, the traditional technology sector (-1.2%) ended ahead of the S&P along with two other top-weighted sectors—financials (-1.1%) and health care (-0.9%).

Although equities registered broad losses, a pocket of strength could be found in the shares of Twitter (TWTR 44.90, +18.90), which began trading as a public company at $45.10 per share after pricing the IPO at $26. The social media stock ended the session below its opening price, but 72.7% above its IPO price.

With stocks ending on their lows, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.90, +1.23) finished near its high.

Today's selling invited above-average participation as more than 900 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Taking another look at today's data, GDP increased 2.8% in the third quarter. That is up from a 2.5% increase in Q2 2013 and matches the best gain since Q3 2012. The Briefing.com consensus expected GDP to increase 1.9%. Final sales were up 2.0%, down slightly from a 2.1% increase in the second quarter.

Overall, the economy performed in the third quarter in a similar fashion to how it performed in the second quarter. Inventories contributed slightly more to growth (0.8 percentage points vs. 0.4 percentage points), which was the main difference between the two quarters. Inventories have now increased for three consecutive quarters and are due for a normal pullback soon. That could leave headline GDP growth coming in weaker in the coming quarters.

Separately, the weekly initial claims level declined to 336,000 from an upwardly revised 345,000 (from 340,000). The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 335,000. The Department of Labor stated that there were no unusual factors in the initial claims data. After two months of biases from computer glitches and the government shutdown, the initial claims report is giving a clean reading of the labor situation.

Unfortunately, the claims level is almost exactly where it was prior to the problems in the claims data. Layoff levels have remained steady and the private sector is very comfortable with its current labor needs.

Tomorrow, October non-farm payrolls, September personal income, personal spending, and core PCE prices will all be reported at 8:30 ET while the preliminary reading of the November Michigan Sentiment Survey will be released at 9:55 ET. 
·         Nasdaq +27.8% YTD 
·         Russell 2000 +27.1% YTD 
·         S&P 500 +22.5% YTD 
·         DJIA +19.0% YTD










Commodities






NYMEX Energy Closing Prices
  Dec crude oil fell $0.50 to $94.24/barrel 
·         Crude oil traded lower today as a stronger dollar index weighed on the commodities space. The energy component brushed a session low of $93.81 in late morning pit trade but managed to erase some of the loss and settled 0.5% lower. 
  Dec natural gas rose 2 cents to $3.52/MMBtu 
·         Natural gas touched a session high of $3.62 moments after pit trade opened but trended lower after inventory data for the week ending Nov 1 showed that natural gas inventories had a build of 35 bcf when a build of 35-40 bcf was anticipated. Natural gas erased most of the earlier gains and settled just 0.6% higher. 
  Dec heating oil fell 3 cents to $2.84/gallon 
  Dec RBOB gasoline fell 5 cents to $2.50/gallon


CBOT Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices
·         Dec corn settled unchanged at $4.21/bushel 
·         Dec wheat fell 1 cent to $6.53/bushel 
·         Jan soybeans rose 11 cents to $12.67/bushel 
·         Dec ethanol rose 3 cents to $1.64/gallon 
·         Jan sugar (#16 (U.S.)) fell 0.23 of a penny to 21.15 cents/lbs

COMEX Metals Closing Prices
  Dec gold fell $8.70 to $1308.70/ounce 
·         Gold slid to a session low of $1296.00 in early morning floor action as the dollar index rallied following the European Central Bank's decision to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%. The yellow metal managed to erase some of the earlier losses and settled 0.7% lower. 
  Dec silver fell $0.10 to $21.66/ounce 
·         Silver also sold off to a session low of $21.38 following the ECB rate cut. It inched higher for the remainder of the session and shaved losses to 0.5%. 
  Dec copper rose 1 cent to $3.25/lbs




Treasuries



Treasuries Book Modest Gains: 10-yr: +10/32..2.607%..USD/JPY: 97.92..EUR/USD: 1.3423
·         Treasuries ended with modest gains as buyers were in control throughout the session. 
·         The complex surged to fresh highs following the ECB rate cut, but quickly pulled back to its pre-announcement level. A steady bid would run maturities to their best levels ahead of the noon hour before drifting into the close. 
·         After days of lagging, the long bond ended in the lead. A gain of nearly one point pushed the 30y down -4.3bps to 3.726% and caused action to settle on the 50 dma. 
·         The 10y saw a more modest impact from the bid as a -2.7bp decline caused the benchmark yield to close @ 2.613%. Treasury bulls continue to set their sights on a retest of the 2.500% area as support there dates back to late-June. 
·         Early outperformance by the 5y dissipated as the selloff in equities caused money to move into the higher-yielding, longer-dated maturities. The 5y slid -2.2bps for the day, settling @ 1.313%. Click here to see an intraday yields chart.
·         A flatter curve developed as the 2-10-yr spread narrowed to 232.5bps. 
·         Precious metals ended in the red with gold -$12 @ $1306 and silver -$0.19 @ $21.58. 
·         Tomorrow's Data: Nonfarm payrolls, nonfarm private payrolls, the unemployment rate, hourly earnings, average workweek, personal income and spending, PCE Prices - Core (8:30), and Michigan Sentiment (9:55). 
·         Fed Speak: Atlanta's Lockhart in Oxford, MS to speak on the economy (12) and SF's Williams in Los Angeles, CA to discuss monetary policy and the economy (16).






Next Day In View 


Economic Commentary


Economic summary: Jobless Claims fall slightly; Q3 GDP easily tops expectations; NFP's due out Friday at 8:30; Bernanke to speak tomorrow 15:30; ECB cuts rates by 25 bps to 0.25%
Economic Data Summary:
·         Weekly Initial Claims 336K vs Briefing.com consensus of 335K; Last Week was revised to 345K from 340K
·         Weekly Continuing Claims 2.868 M vs Briefing.com consensus of 2.863 M ; Last Week was revised to 2.864 M from 2.881 M
o     The Department of Labor stated that there were no unusual factors in the initial claims data. After two months of biases from computer glitches and the government shutdown, the initial claims report is giving a clean reading of the labor situation. Unfortunately, the claims level is almost exactly where it was prior to the problems in the claims data.
·         Third Quarter GDP - Advance 2.8% vs Briefing.com consensus of 1.9%; Q2 - Final was 2.5%
o     Final sales were up 2.0%, down slightly from a 2.1% increase in the second quarter. Overall, the economy performed in the third quarter in a similar fashion to how it performed in the second quarter. Inventories contributed slightly more to growth (0.8 percentage points vs. 0.4 percentage points), which was the main difference between the two quarters. Inventories have now increased for three consecutive quarters and are due for a normal pullback soon. That could leave headline GDP growth coming in weaker in the coming quarters. As expected, consumption growth softened in the third quarter. Total consumer spending increased 1.5% after increasing 1.8% in Q2. That was the weakest gain since increasing by 1.5% in Q2 2011. 
·         Third Quarter Chain Deflator 1.9% vs Briefing.com consensus of 1.4%; Q2 - Final was 0.6%
Upcoming Economic Data:
·         October Consumer Credit due out Thursday at 15:00 (Briefing.com consensus of $11.0 bln; September was 148K)
·         October NonFarm Payrolls due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 100K; September was 126K)
·         October Nonfarm Private Payrolls due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 110K; September was 7.2%)
·         October Unemployment Rate  due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 7.3%; September was 7.2%)
·         October Hourly Earnings due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; September 0.1%)
·         October Average Workweek due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus 34.4; September 34.5).
·         September Personal Income due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; August was 0.4%)
·         September Personal Spending due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; August was 0.3%)
·         September PCE Prices - Core due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; August was 0.2%).
·         November Michigan Sentiment due out Friday at 9:55 (Briefing.com consensus 75.3%; October- Final 73.2%)
Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:
·         Fed Governor Jeremy Stein (voting FOMC member, typically dovish) to speak Today at 12:45
·         Chicago Fed President Charlie Evans (voting FOMC member, typically dovish) to speak Today at 19:45
·         Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart to speak Friday at 12:00
·         Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to speak Friday at 15:30
·         San Francisco Fed President John Williams (not a voting FOMC member, typically moderate) to speak at 16:00
Other International Events of Interest
·         The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%. 
·         The Bank of England made no changes to its current policy stance, maintaining its key interest rate and the purchasing program at their respective 0.5% and GBP375 billion. 

On other news.... 




Walt Disney beats by $0.01, beats on revs (67.18 -1.80)
Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.77 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.76; revenues rose 7.3% year/year to $11.57 bln vs the $11.40 bln consensus. 
·         Media Networks revenues for the quarter increased 1% to $4.9 billion and segment operating income decreased 8% to $1.4 billion.
·         Parks and Resorts revenues for the quarter increased 8% to $3.7 billion and segment operating income increased 15% to $571 million.
·         Studio Entertainment revenues for the quarter increased 7% to $1.5 billion and segment operating income increased $28 million to $108 million.
·         Consumer Products revenues for the quarter increased 14% to $1.0 billion and segment operating income increased 30% to $347 million.





Currencies 




Dollar Nears Best Close Since Mid-September: 10-yr: +09/32..2.612%..USD/JPY: 97.74..EUR/USD: 1.3434
The Dollar Index surged to a one and a half-month high near 81.40 following the surprise ECB rate cut, but trade was rejected at the 100 dma. Steady selling over the course of the day has dropped the Index back onto the 80.70 level where trade holds near the best closes of November. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.
·         EURUSD is -75 pips at 1.3435 as trade has recovered a good portion of its early losses. The single currency plunged to 1.3295 in response to the ECB's surprise 25bp cut to a record low 0.25%. The accompanying news conference by ECB head Mario Draghi left open the possibility of further measures to ease conditions, but no specifics were given. Any close below 1.3470 will mark the worst since the middle of September. Eurozone data includes French industrial production and the German trade balance. 
·         GBPUSD is +25 pips at 1.6100 as trade looks for its fourth straight day of gains. Sterling saw little reaction to this morning's Bank of England decision to keep both its key interest rate and asset purchase program steady at their respective 0.50% and GBP375 bln, but was pushed to its worst levels as trade was dragged lower by the declining euro. Trade would bottom near 1.6015 as bulls defended support in the area, and is now looking for a test of resistance near 1.6150. Britain's trade balance will be released tomorrow. 
·         USDCHF is +30 pips at .9150 as action looks to be on track for its best close since the middle of September. Post-ECB buying ignited a rally up to .9250, but trade was rebuffed as sellers emerged at the 100 dma. Swiss data is limited to retail sales. 
·         USDJPY is -80 pips at 97.85 as today's selling has dropped action back below its 50 and 100 dma and has trade probing the 200 dma. The initial bid following the ECB rate cut propelled the pair above 99.00 for the first time since late-September; however, that breakout would prove false as sellers took control following a breakdown in Nikkei futures. Many remain on the sidelines as the 97.00/99.00 range holds. 
·         AUDUSD is -70 pips at .9455 as sellers have been in control throughout the session. Support in the .9400 area is helped by the 50 dma. The latest Reserve Bank of Australia minutes will cross the wires tonight. China's trade balance is tentatively scheduled for release. 
·         USDCAD is +30 pips at 1.0445 as trade has recovered most of yesterday's losses. Support in the 1.0400 area withstood an early test, and that has action climbing back towards 1.0480 resistance. Canada's employment data is due out tomorrow.







Jason's Commentaries


Definitely did not see this coming. It's a sea of red in the market last night despite Advance GDP beating estimates of 2.8% vs 2.0% and the ECB cutting the bid rate. Volumes were tremendous last night, 909m shares traded. That's a lot of profit taking ahead of the employment reports. I'm suspecting the report must have leaked out somehow, causing such a huge sell down. Market started with a bearish momentum and kept going down all the way till the closing bell. There's minor reversal at 11am ET, but nothing kept the market from selling down. Most major market components went down more than 1%. Only a handful of companies remained green. Consumer discretionary is the biggest laggard in the market last night of a loss of 2.07% while energy being the second biggest laggard lost 1.54%.  

On the technical outlook, we're having some very bearish candlesticks formation happening, bearish engulfing pattern on both Dow and S&P500.. I reckon, the market will continue to go down today. But next week, i reckon we'll remain flat. We're having the employment report coming out at 830am ET and Helicopter Ben talking at 330pm ET. Stay safe and enjoy the volatility. 

Peace out =D 

Market Call: DOWN
Date: 8 Nov 2013

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