27 Feb 2013 AMC

27 Feb 2013

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:25 ET Dow +175.24 at 14075.37, Nasdaq +32.61 at 3162.26, S&P +19.05 at 1515.99 : [BRIEFING.COM] Today's session saw an extension of yesterday's buying as the S&P 500 managed to erase the remainder of its losses from Monday. The broad rally occurred with six of 10 sectors adding in excess of 1.0%. Cyclical stocks led the way with industrials and materials exhibiting relative strength from the start of the session.  Today's economic data provided some support as January pending home sales rose 4.5%, which was ahead of the 1.0% increase that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus.  In addition to January pending home sales, the market received news of durable goods orders for the same month. Although the headline number fell 5.2%, this was due to a 45.7% drop in defense and nondefense aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders rose a solid 1.9% in January.  Industrial shares led throughout the day. This was aided by the strong performance from transportation related stocks, which pushed the Dow Jones Transportation Average to a gain of 2.9%.  Elsewhere in industrials, Joy Global (JOY 63.45, +3.49) jumped 5.8% after its quarterly report beat on earnings and revenue.  Basic materials also finished near the lead after lagging notably in recent sessions. Today, material producers rallied broadly with miners as the lone weak spot. The SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 38.42, +0.67) gained 1.8%.  The outperformance of cyclical stocks was also reflected by the consumer discretionary sector where homebuilders climbed on the back of the pending home sales report. Although this report does not have a direct impact on new homes, strong existing sales can be seen as a positive indicator of demand for new properties. The SPDR S&PHomebuilders ETF (XHB 28.37, +0.60) rose 2.2%.  Monday's downturn was sparked by fears that political uncertainty in Italy will upset the recent recovery observed in sovereign debt markets. This expectation caused investors to shun financial shares which exhibit heightened sensitivity to political and market fluctuations. However, today's rebound saw money return to the sector. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 49.28, +1.68) was the best performer among the majors, and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 17.62, +0.27) gained 1.6%.  As the recent wave of investor fear was leaving the market, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did his best to help chase it away. Earlier today, the Fed Chair concluded his bi-annual, two-day testimony before Congress.  Appearing in front of the House Financial Services Committee, the Chairman continued stressing the benefits of the Fed's asset purchase plan. Today's testimony was largely a carbon copy of yesterday's remarks which confirmed the Federal Reserve's desire to continue its easy-money policy.  Reviewing S&P 500 sector performance, industrials (+1.9%), materials (+1.7%), and financials (+1.6%) settled in the lead while technology (+0.9%), telecoms (+0.9%), and utilities (+0.9%) trailed behind the broader market.  Today's volume was below average as just over 670 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Notably, today's final tally represented the lowest total since February 14.  Looking at tomorrow's economic news, weekly initial and continuing claims, as well as the second estimate of fourth quarter GDP will all be reported at 8:30 ET. The day's economic data will be topped off with the 9:45 ET release of the February Chicago PMI. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2313/704. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1648/814.

After Hours 18:45 ET BWC +8.8%, ANIK +3.3%, GRPN -26.1%, BSFT -24.5%, MCHX -20.8% following earnings/guidance : Today's session saw an extension of yesterday's buying as the S&P 500 managed to erase the remainder of its losses from Monday. The broad rally occurred with six of 10 sectors adding in excess of 1.0%. Cyclical stocks led the way with industrials and materials exhibiting relative strength from the start of the session. Other notable after hours movers on earnings: BWC +8.8%, ANIK +3.3%, RGR +2.7%, MYL +2.6%, CLR +2.4%, PANL +2.2%, UAN +1.9%, CBI +1.2%, GTAT +1.0%, CECO +0.9%, VALE +0.8%, MNST +0.7%, ICFI +0.4%, CSGP +0.2%, GRPN -26.1%, BSFT -24.5%, MCHX -20.8%, ANW -17.3%, JCP -14.9%, VCRA -10.9%, BOOM -2.8%, IILG -1.8%, ARI -1.7%, MBI -1.3%, DAR -1.2%, WES -1.1%, AFCE -0.9%, CHDN -0.9%, PODD -0.9%, PACD -0.8%, LTD -0.7%, DEL -0.5%, HNSN -0.4%, IOC -0.4%, WLL -0.4%, LINTA -0.3%, BEE -0.2%, MWE -0.1% Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: CBI, ITC, CSGP, MTSN, STNR, WLL, ELGX, MYL, BOOM, AHT, FARO, KRA, RGR, RJET, STAA, WES, AMSF, ARI, DXPE, GMED, MCHX, ICFI, BSFT, CBEY, CHDN, EXAM, MMLP, UAN, VCRA, CWT, DPM, IILG, AFCE, BWC, CDXS , CLR, DVR, EXL, HNSN, MBI, MNST, MWE, PANL, RLJ, AGO, CECO, DAR, EPAM, GRPN, PODD, JCP, ANW, LTD, IOC, CPRT, PLL, GEF, WGP Futures are mixed after hours: S&P 500 futures are +0.81 from fair value of 1514.59 and Nasdaq100 futures are -0.51 from fair value of 2740.76. Tomorrow morning before the open three economic reports are scheduled to be released: 1) Initial Claims (Consensus 360k) and Continuing Claims (Consensus 3150k), 2) GDP - Second Estimate (Consensus 0.5%), and 3) GDP Deflator - Second Estimate (Consensus 0.6%). Tomorrow before the open the following companies are scheduled to report earnings: DTEGY, DPZ, AIXG, LKQ, MTRN, MGLN, IRM, RDC, ANSS, AVD, BRY, CIR, CTRX, GTLS, IRDM, OCN, ORN, RNO, SNAK, VC, WNR, WPX, WWE, VRX, AWR, CVC, ISIS, PKT, TTI, BABY, GVA, NIHD, PQ, VITC, ACIW, FCN, HK, KSS, NXTM, SJI, BDBD, MTG, NAFC, SHLD, CHS, SDRL, BKS, MEI, TD

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Jason's Commentaries


This has totally caught me with my pants down... I went bear and suddenly the DJIA spiked a 200 points? I find this really disturbing when I got stopped out, I found out that there was no volumes, no news supporting this rally. The volatility is getting wilder now, especially before the congress sit down to discuss their plans about the Sequester on Friday. When I look into the internals, I find it bullish but not very convincing. Perhaps the market makers are coming together to wipe the short interest out? Despite the spike, I am maintaining my view that this will be range bounded especially we're at a high right now. Most sectors led the market by more than 1% gain yesterday. Industrials, especially the defense industry was led by General Dynamics for winning a $200 million contract, have pulling up Lockheed Martin and Boeing in sympathy. 

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 28 Feb 2013

26 Feb 2013 AMC

26 Feb 2013

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:15 ET Dow +115.96 at 13900.13, Nasdaq +13.40 at 3129.65, S&P +9.09 at 1496.94 : [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 ended today's session with a gain of 0.6% despite enduring some early weakness. The benchmark average started the day on a positive note with upbeat economic data proving insufficient in staving off the early selling pressure. However, markets staged a rebound in afternoon trade with the key indices climbing to fresh highs.  Consumer discretionary stocks were among today's top performers, largely due to upbeat February consumer confidence, which was reported at 69.0. In addition, January new home sales of 437,000 were reported well ahead of the Briefing.com consensus.  The strong housing data coupled with a healthy rise in December home prices provided support for homebuilders. DR Horton (DHI 22.25, +0.88) and Lennar (LEN 38.01, +1.35) both gained near 4.0%, and the broader SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 27.77, +0.80) advanced 3.0%.  Discretionary shares also received support after Home Depot (HD 67.56, +3.64) reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue. In addition, the company hiked its quarterly dividend by 34% to $0.39/share and authorized a $17 billion share repurchase program. The Dow component jumped 5.7%, contributing to the relative strength of the blue chip average.  While discretionary shares outperformed, consumer staples finished as one of the weakest sectors. Tyson Foods (TSN 22.40, -0.86) slipped 3.7% after saying margin compression has taken a bite out of its beef and pork segments. Meanwhile, United Natural Foods (UNFI 50.45, -2.55) slid 4.8% after guiding on the low end of analyst estimates, citing rising costs.  The materials sector has been one of the weakest performers dating back to last week, but the space led today's rebound. The SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 37.75, +0.40) gained 1.1% amid outperformance from chemical and paper producers. Monsanto(MON 99.20, +1.11) advanced 1.1% and International Paper (IP 42.75, +0.96) climbed 2.3%.  Similar to materials, the financial sector has shown notable sensitivity to the market swings of recent days. With exposure to Italian and other sovereign debt, a rise in political uncertainty runs the risk of turning into financial instability. Today, bank stocks trailed behind the broader market and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 17.35, +0.09) added 0.5%.  Floor volume at the New York Stock Exchange was slightly above average as 772 million shares changed hands. Notably, today's session saw thinner volume than yesterday's sell off with the Tuesday total also running behind high volume sessions of last week.  With the focus remaining on Italy, concerns over the country's near-term future were also brought up during today's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony. Speaking before the Senate, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that a need to write-down Italian debt would not inflict serious damage on U.S. financial institutions.  The rest of Mr. Bernanke's remarks at today's testimony have struck a now-familiar tone. The Chairman highlighted the perceived benefits of current monetary policy but also acknowledged very low interest rates could push portfolio managers into a "reach for yield," thus causing them to assume outsized risk.  Regarding the March 1 implementation of automatic spending cuts known as the "sequester," the Chairman does not expect to see an immediate impact, but foresees a build-up of effects over time.  In tomorrow's economic data, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET. At 8:30 January durable goods and durable goods ex-transportation will be released. The day's economic data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of January pending home sales.  Also at 10:00 ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, concluding the two-day event. On the earnings front, Joy Global(JOY 59.96, +0.26) and Target (TGT 64.05, +1.16) are scheduled to report their quarterly results before the opening bell.  The U.S. Treasury will auction off $29 billion in 7-yr notes. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1989/1007. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1488/971.

After Hours 18:16 ET GWRE +14.8%, BGFV +7.9%, AH -18.7%, FSLR -10.1% following earnings/guidance : The S&P 500 ended today's session with a gain of 0.6% despite enduring some early weakness. The benchmark average started the day on a positive note with upbeat economic data proving insufficient in staving off the early selling pressure. However, markets staged a rebound in afternoon trade with the key indices climbing to fresh highs. Other notable after hours movers on earnings: GWRE +14.8%, BGFV +7.9%, UNXL +6.4%, ZAGG +4.6%, EIX +4.1%, KAI +3.7%, MAKO +3.3%, PCLN +3.0%, DY +2.3%, NUVA +2.1%, JAZZ +1.7%, AVGO +1.7%, RRC +1.2%, GPOR +0.8%, AH -18.7%, FSLR -10.1%, QCOR -6.2%, SPN -0.8%, LYV -0.7%, WFT -0.7%, DWA -0.6%, TTEC -0.2%, GA -0.2%, BIO -0.1% Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: HSTM, QCOR, NUVA, RRC, SPN, KAI, DGI, EXAC, VRSK, NATL, PZZA, WTI, BGFV, DWA, EIX, FSLR, PCLN, VNO, ZAGG, LYV, BIO, GPOR, MIDD, ORA, REXX, STEC, AWK, ENPH, MAKO, TTEC, JAZZ, GA, DY, GWRE, TIVO, AVGO Futures are lower after hours: S&P 500 futures are -2.09 from fair value of 1495.19 and Nasdaq100 futures are -1.81 from fair value of 2712.31. Tomorrow morning before the open three economic reports are scheduled to be released: 1) MBA Mortgage Index, 2) Durable Orders (Consensus -3.5%), and Durable Goods (Consensus 0.2%). Tomorrow before the open the following companies are scheduled to report earnings: FDML, CRI, VPHM, CBB, DIN, SWC, PDCE, FIG, ITT, NRG, ARCC, AFAM, AES, AH, CNP, LAMR, OGE, SRT, STWD, SUSS, HII, INXN, TJX, AMAP, DLTR, PACT, TGT, GLOG, LTXC, JOY

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Jason's Commentaries

The market went higher than I expected, Dow registered 100 points gain,. With the VIX retracing a 11.16%, and the internals are slightly bullish biased, I would say yesterday was a bullish day, especially after a 200 points drop from previous day. However, it's important to note that there are only 3 sectors that are performing at the range of near 1% yesterday, not exactly that strong for a 100 points gain on the Dow. While looking at the technicals, I would say this rebound is somewhat expected. Ben Bernanke testified yesterday at 11am and started to rebound after that. It's also important to note that the Treasuries rallied yesterday as well. Nonetheless, I'll be looking for more confirmation to stay bear. 

Market Call: FLAT to downside

Date: 27 Feb 2013

25 Feb 2013 AMC

25 Feb 2013

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Commodities

Treasuries

Next Day In View 




Jason's Commentaries

Right on my call on the market on Monday. The market gapped up at the initial which stopped me out at my short position, then wasn't able to break above the opening high and started going down. After lunch, weakness is seen the in market and subsequently sold off during the last hour of trading. While we're having the highest trading volume for the year in the NYSE, over 820 million shares traded, we also have the biggest drop for 2013. The bears ruled the day and we're having a bearish engulfing pattern on all 3 indices. The financials were the biggest laggard, along side with the Energy, Industrials and Material Sectors. If we're having another down day today, we're likely to correct very soon. To make the volatile market more volatile, Ben Bernake is speaking at 11am ET later. Stay tune..

Market Call: FLAT to downside

Date:  26 Feb 2013

22 Feb 2013 AMC

22 Feb 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

Market Internals

 

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

 

Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:30 ET Dow +119.95 at 14000.57, Nasdaq +30.33 at 3161.82, S&P +13.18 at 1515.6 : [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 gained 0.9% to rebound from its two-day slide which saw the index drop just under 2.0%. However, despite today's rally, the benchmark average was unable to register a higher close for the week, thus snapping its streak of seven consecutive weekly gains.  Stocks began the session on a positive note amid upbeat European trade. The bullish bias across the old continent was attributed in part to a better-than-expected Ifo Business Climate Survey out of Germany.  With no domestic economic data of note, attention was centered mostly on earnings as several notable companies reported their results.  Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 19.20, +2.10) jumped 12.3% after beating on earnings and revenue. The company also issued upbeat second quarter earnings guidance, but it should be noted the stock was trading near its all-time lows as recently as late November. That multi-year weakness has caused analysts to lower their expectations for the computer company.  Elsewhere in tech, semiconductor manufacturers outperformed after begin one of the weakest groups yesterday. Contributing to the strength was Texas Instruments (TXN 34.18, +1.70), which climbed 5.2% after hiking its quarterly dividend by 33% to $0.28 and announcing the authorization of an additional $5 billion in funds aimed at repurchasing company stock. Meanwhile, the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index gained 2.1%.  Financials also finished among the leaders. American International Group (AIG 38.45, +1.17) advanced 3.1% after beating bottom line estimates on revenue below consensus.  Also of note, the materials sector underperformed throughout the week but was today's top advancer. On Tuesday, basic materials settled in the red despite a broad market advance. As stocks sold off on Wednesday and Thursday, the sector led to the downside amid weakness in industrial and precious metals. As a result, the space is now registering the slimmest gains of the year among the 10 sectors.  Although cyclical stocks outperformed, this was not the case with consumer discretionary shares. Retailers saw relative weakness and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF(XRT 67.31, 0.00) ended flat. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 46.86, -2.19) settled as the weakest S&P 500 component after beating on earnings ex-charges and announcing plans to shutter up to 50 stores.  With consumers adjusting to lower spending power resulting from the expiration of the payroll tax cut, profit warnings from consumer companies have become more frequent. This morning, Darden Restaurants (DRI 46.23, +1.49) issued downside third quarter earnings guidance with higher payroll tax as well as rising gasoline prices cited as the reason.  Reviewing today's S&P 500 sector performance, materials (+1.3%), technology (+1.2%), financials (+1.2%), and utilities (+1.1%) led the way. On the downside, health care (+0.4%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and consumer discretionary (+0.6%) registered slimmer gains than the broader market.  Today's volume was below average as less than 690 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. This suggests the rally may not have been built on the same conviction as the recent sell off, which saw the two highest volume sessions of 2013.  There is no economic data scheduled to be released on Monday. However, it should be noted that the closely-contested Italian general election is scheduled to take place on Sunday and Monday of next week.

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Weekly Analysis
Week 38



Technical Updates























Briefing's Commentaries


Week in Review: S&P 500 Snaps Seven Week Winning Streak 
On Monday, equity and bond markets were closed in observance of Presidents Day. 

Tuesday's session saw the S&P 500 settle higher by 0.7% after spending the duration of the day in a steady upward climb. Equities got off to an upbeat start supported in part by bullish European trade. In addition, merger speculation helped support the markets at the open. Health care stocks were in the news when the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed lower 2014 Medicare co-payments. The news carried a negative impact for health care providers as Humana (HUM 70.61, -2.04) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH 54.47, -0.77) lost 6.4% and 1.2% respectively. 

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 settled lower by 1.2% after spending the entire session in negative territory. Equities began the day on a lower note amid mixed housing data and hovered near their lows ahead of the Fed's minutes. Stocks then fell to fresh lows after the minutes indicated Committee members saw little change to the economic outlook. Homebuilders sold off in reaction to an earnings and revenue miss reported by Toll Brothers (TOL 34.59, +0.12). Peers PulteGroup (PHM 18.90, +0.15) and D.R. Horton(DHI 22.31, +0.14) were off 6.8% and 5.9% respectively. 

Thursday proved to be an extension of Wednesday's weakness as the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.6%. Stocks began the day in the red and continued sliding into the afternoon when bargain hunters stepped in and lifted the major averages off their lows. The S&P 500 managed to hold the psychologically important 1500 level, avoiding its first close below that mark since February 4. Wal-Mart (WMT 70.40, +0.14) gained 1.5% after beating on earnings. However, the company issued first quarter guidance on the low end of analyst expectations. In addition, Wal-Mart said it expects its comparable store sales to be flat during the first quarter. This suggests the worries regarding consumer spending, expressed in an internal email last week, have some credence to them. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2246/733. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1770/688.




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Jason's Commentaries

Was right on the call for Friday, DJI went up almost a 120 points, and all 3 main indices posted some decent gains. The VIX lost a total of 6.9% on Friday when HP came in fantastic results and spiked a 12% gain. On the Dow, We have KO, GD, AXP,DD and IBM performing exceptionally well on Friday, each with a gain of more than 1.5% which allow DJI to lock in such huge gain. Although there was not much economic news coming out on Friday, earnings drove the day up. Looking at the internals, volumes was not very impressive, having a mere 680 Million shares traded on the NYSE, which is slightly lower than the average traded volume. Although, the bulls were outpacing the bears, it seems that the bears was able to stand their ground a little.The treasuries looked a little divergence on Friday. While the market is rallying on Friday, Treasuries did the same thing with the 5,10 and 30 year.

While on our 9 main sectors, the leaders were the financials, Tech, Utilities and Materials. Financials were being led by Morgan Stanley, AIG, Prudential, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Legg Mason and BlackRock. Each having a gain of more than 2% on the Friday. While on the Materials, It was companies like Du Pont, Dow Chemicals and Eastman Chemical which led the sector. Not to mention Mosaic, Aloca, CF Industries were down in materials. While on the Tech, HP, Texas instrument, Symantec led the sector up tremendously, having a gain of more than 2.5% each.  And if we were to look at the weekly performance of the 9 sectors, the Industrials, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Tech and Healthcare seems to be losing a little of their steam and might be correcting soon. The industrials were being bogged down by the Defense Industry, Healthcare being dragged by the HMOs, the Materials were lagged by the Agriculture Industry. And tech namely were weighed down by the giant Apple.

As we're entering the end of Feb, which is likely to mark the end of this flat and volatile month, we're also expecting the Congress to decide and act on the Fiscal Cliff and debt ceiling issues which has been postponed since Jan. This coming week also mark the first week of Mar, which the first trading day of Mar has been down 4 times out of 6, up 9 of 11 times. While we're looking at the chart, we're definitely still in a consolidation phase.My dear friend, Jason Tan, http://strongerhead.com, has noted something very interesting on the consolidation period of the market at its highs, which is worth spending a few minutes of your time reading it.

While we're coming to an end of the earnings season, here's the report card on the S&P 500 stocks.

Out of the 500 stocks,
86.5%, announced their earnings.
63.3% beat their earnings
11.4% just met their earnings
25.2% missed their estimate.

Having a 25% missing their Q4 results is not exactly a good thing for the market.

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 25 Feb 2013