Wednesday 26 September 2012

26 Sep 2012 AMC


26 September
Market Summary 



Spot on.... Market went down even after the consumer confidence yesterday. It was a clear bearish day...

Market Internals





.

With the internals showing bearish convergence, however, also to note that this week is the window dressing week, but we don't see any window dressing by any big boys... that means... I'm gonna turn bear for the short term..


Leaders and Laggards


Financials, Industrials and discretionary lead the fall.... that doesn't look good at all...
These sectors are good leaders... be it in the bearish market..

Technical Updates









As expected of a correction... might be hitting a support soon...

Commentaries 
Stock Market Update
16:15 ET Dow -101.30 at 13462.8, Nasdaq -43.05 at 3117.73, S&P -15.30 at 1441.59 : [BRIEFING.COM] Equities began today's session slightly higher before receiving an additional boost from positive consumer confidence data. Despite the upbeat data, stocks were unable to maintain the bullish tone as the major averages slipped into negative territory around midday. Stocks then extended their slide which also coincided with weakness in crude oil and the euro. The selling was broad-based, but financials, materials, industrials, and technology were among the worst performers. As a result, the S&P 500 ended lower by 1.1%.

Broadly speaking, today's weakness may have been a reflection of some end-of-quarter profit taking as the S&P has added 6.2% over the last three months and 15.0% since the start of the year. Additionally, the inability to sustain a rally after the strong confidence number may have exposed the idea the market is probably overbought short-term, and certainly in the face of weakening fundamentals.

Health care stocks were the top performer as the risk-off trade was today's theme.Neogen (NEOG 42.83, +2.83) jumped 7.1% after reporting mixed earnings. The company beat on earnings, while revenues fell $1 million short of estimates.

A handful of health care stocks moved on news. DARA BioSciences (DARA 1.15, +0.07) closed higher by 6.5% after announcing the establishment of a vertically integrated commercial platform for specialty oncology care and support products. Meanwhile, Genetic Technologies (GENE 3.60, +0.25) spiked 7.5% after the company announced its BREVAGen has been cleared for sale in the state of Florida. Lastly, Sinovac (SVA 2.68, +0.19) surged 7.6% after being awarded tenders in Beijing and Shanghai to supply inactivated Hepatitis-A vaccine under an expanded immunization program.

The technology sector was generally weaker as its biggest component, Apple (AAPL 673.54, -17.25) settled lower by 2.5%.

Cognex (CGNX 34.70, -3.25) fell 8.6% after Piper Jaffray downgraded the shares of from ‘neutral' to ‘underweight' while also lowering the price target from $30 to $27.

Paychex (PAYX 33.41, -0.97) slipped 2.8% despite beating on earnings and reporting in-line revenues. In addition, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2013 guidance. Following the report, Citigroup and UBS downgraded the company. Citigroup cut Paychex from ‘neutral' to ‘sell' while UBS lowered its rating from ‘buy' to ‘neutral.'

German semiconductor maker, Infineon Technology (IFNNY 6.60, -0.43) slid 6.1% after the company lowered its fourth and first quarter guidance. The management also said it will define and implement measures to improve future profitability. Details regarding these measures will be announced at the company's annual press conference on November 14, 2012.

The lower guidance weighed on other semiconductor producers. Atmel (ATML 5.46, -0.45) lost 7.6%, while STMicroelectronics (STM 5.66, -0.22) and Texas Instruments(TXN 27.83, -0.85) shed between 3.0% and 3.7%.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average underperformed as the bellwether group finished lower by 0.9%. Despite weakness in the space, two names saw notable outperformance. Shipper Matson (MATX 20.73, +0.21) led the complex, up 1.0%. Meanwhile, CH Robinson (CHRW 59.04, +0.47) advanced 0.8% after announcing the planned acquisition of Phoenix International for $571.5 million in cash and $63.5 million in newly-issued CH Robinson stock.

Railroad outperformed in the early going. However, the afternoon selling pressure pushed the group lower. Norfolk Southern (NSC 65.07, -1.21) slid 1.8% while Union Pacific (UNP 120.38, -0.73), CSX (CSX 21.17, -0.19) and Kansas City Southern (KSU 76.36, -0.72) all lost between 0.6% and 0.9%.

The latest consumer confidence reading for September came in at 70.3 when economists were expecting a reading of 63.0. Today's number followed prior month's 65.9 print.

The July Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index rose 1.2% when a 0.8% increase had been generally expected. This comes against a prior month's reading of 0.5%.

Separately, the latest Housing Price Index from the FHFA was also just released. For July, the Index increased by 0.2%, which follows a 0.7% increase in the prior month.

In tomorrow's economic data, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET, while new home sales will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $35 billion in 5-yr notes. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 811/2244. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 669/1847.

After Hours
16:39 ET CAMP +2.7%, JBL -3.1%, SNX -0.8% following earnings/guidance :
Equities began today's session slightly higher before receiving an additional boost from positive consumer confidence data. Despite the upbeat data, stocks were unable to maintain the bullish tone as the major averages slipped into negative territory around midday. Stocks then extended their slide which also coincided with weakness in crude oil and the euro. The selling was broad-based, but financials, materials, industrials, and technology were among the worst performers. As a result, the S&P 500 ended lower by 1.1%.
Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: CPRT, JBL, OMN, SNX, CAMP
Futures are higher after hours: S&P 500 futures are +1.25 from fair value of 1435.05 and Nasdaq100 futures are +5.86 from fair value of 2797.64.
Tomorrow morning before the open one economic report is scheduled to be release: 1) MBA Mortgage Index.
Tomorrow before the open the following companies are scheduled to report earnings: CMTL, FUL, LNDC, TXI


Commodities




Treasuries






Despite having such a bear day... there's a sell of in the treasuries again.. money has to flow somewhere... and apparently it's not in equities either...

Either way, i'm still bull for a while... possibility finding a support after the correction...

Market Call: FLAT(to the upside)
Date: 26 SEP 2012

Monday 24 September 2012

24 Sep 2012 AMC

20 September
Market Summary 

 Another DFDM... doesn't look like a very bullish sign to me... Market opened lower last night but managed to regain some ground after lunch. 


Market Internals








On the internals, it was kinda flat with the bears outpacing the bulls a little bit...

Leaders and Laggards



Strong: Utilities, Telecoms

Weak: Technology, Materials, Energy

On the leaders yesterday... Utilities and Telecos made the biggest gain... That's some defensive play... If the defensive sector are constantly leading... I will be changing to a more defensive play as well..


Technical Updates










On the main indices yesterday, the NASDAQ led the fall, with AAPL leading NASDAQ down. The sale of the Iphone made another record high for their first weekend. Apple claims that their inventory for Iphone has already been sold out. Another excellent launch of the Iphone.

The market might be going into correction before breaking into the higher highs..

Commentaries 


Stock Market Update
16:15 ET Dow -20.55 at 13564.1, Nasdaq -19.18 at 3160.78, S&P -3.26 at 1456.89 :[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks began the week on a down note after Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index missed expectations. The major averages marked their session lows during the opening minutes before setting on a day-long climb towards the unchanged line. Due to weakness in Apple, the tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed with a loss of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 shed 0.2%. 

The Nasdaq trailed other indices after Apple (AAPL 690.79, -9.30) reported selling just five million iPhone 5s over the weekend, while some expected sales to reach as much as 10 million units. As a result, Apple ended lower by 1.3%. 

Utility stocks were the top performer as the risk-off trade took hold. Natural gas producerQuestar (STR 20.10, +0.73) added 3.8% after shares of the company were upgraded from ‘neutral' to ‘buy' at UBS. Other utility names which benefited from rotation into safer sectors included AES Corporation (AES 11.24, +0.12), Exelon (EXC 35.87, +0.49), andPinnacle West (PNW 53.40, +0.84). The three stocks all gained between 1.0% and 1.6%. 

The Dow Jones Transportation Average rose by 1.0% as it broke its recent streak of underperformance. Within the group, railroad stocks rebounded after Norfolk Southern(NSC 66.28, +1.28) cut its guidance last week. Norfolk Southern ended higher by 2.0% while other railroad names also advanced. CSX (CSX 21.36, +0.23), Kansas City Southern (KSU 77.08, +1.08), and Union Pacific (UNP 121.11, +1.74) all posted gains between 1.0% and 1.5%. 

In the materials sector, steel stocks were under pressure after Citigroup downgraded a pair of steelmakers. United States Steel (X 19.59, -0.35) shed 1.8% after being downgraded from ‘buy' to ‘neutral,' while AK Steel (AKS 5.01, -0.24) settled lower by 4.6% after its rating was cut from ‘neutral' to ‘sell.' The weakness spilled over to other steel names as AM Castle (CAS 12.20, -0.25) and Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 40.77, -0.16) lost 0.4% and 2.0%, respectively. 

Paper and packaging stocks traded higher after Credit Suisse raised their targets on select stocks within the group. The firm raised their target on International Paper (IP 36.78, +1.27) from $40 to $44, Packaging Corp of America (PKG 34.95, +1.20) from $36 to $41, and Rock-Tenn (RKT 73.75, +5.03) from $73 to $82. The three stocks all gained between 3.5% and 7.3% following the positive commentary. Elsewhere,KapStone (KS 21.80, +1.19) advanced 5.8% after Stephens upgraded the shares from ‘equal weight' to ‘overweight.' 

Questcor (QCOR 19.08, -11.05) slumped 36.7% after disclosing that the U.S. government is investigating the company for its promotional practices. In addition, Leerink Swank downgraded the shares of the company from ‘outperform' to ‘market perform. Note that Questcor fell 40.0% last week amid concerns around insurance coverage for the company's Acthar gel. 

Peregrine Pharma (PPHM 1.16, -4.23) plunged 78.5% after announcing discrepancies in its data from its Phase IIb trial of bavituximab in patients with second-line non-small cell lung cancer. The company said that investors should not rely on clinical data that was disclosed on or before September 7, 2012. Since September 7, Peregrine has rallied more than 75.0% on what was previously thought to be encouraging trial data. 

The Case-Shiller 20-city Index will be reported at 9:00 ET, while consumer confidence and the FHFA Housing Price Index will be released at 10:00 ET. 

The U.S. Treasury will auction off 2-yr notes. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1214/1800. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1112/1371.


After Hours
16:23 ET OKS +3.3%, PAYX +0.8%, RHT -0.4%, CAT -1.8% following earnings/guidance :
Stocks began the week on a down note after Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index missed expectations. The major averages marked their session lows during the opening minutes before setting on a day-long climb towards the unchanged line. Due to weakness in Apple, the tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed with a loss of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 shed 0.2%. 
Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: RHT, PAYX
Futures are higher after hours: S&P 500 futures are +0.99 from fair value of 1450.31 and Nasdaq100 futures are +0.66 from fair value of 2837.34.
Tomorrow morning before the open one economic report is scheduled to be release: 1) MBA Mortgage Index.
Tomorrow before the open the following companies are scheduled to report earnings: CCL, FDS, NEOG, MTN

Commodities





Natural gas and sugar made some interesting movement at 2pm SGT .

Treasuries








Treasuries continues to sell off again. Now the main question is... Where is money flowing into?


Consumer Sentiments is coming out today and it's likely to be the market mover today. If it suck, oh well.. the market will likely to be down today. And based on past consumer sentiment it doesnt look good.

Market Call: DOWN
Date: 25 SEP 2012

Friday 21 September 2012

21 Sep 2012 AMC +38th Week Outlook


21 September
Market Summary 



Oh well... the market went flat again last night. Market was up for the first half the day, then subsequently wiped out it's gain in the last trading hour. 

VIX went to it's all time low again. 

From what i see, positional traders are closing off their positions ahead of this weekend. And especially on a quadruple witching Friday. 

This is not a good sign especially at the high of the indices. 
Market Internals





Volumes were exceptionally high yesterday. Over1.8Bil Shares in NYSE traded yesterday. However, it was an equal fight between the bulls and the bears. ADVN outpaced DECN while New highs outpaced New Lows.



Leaders and Laggards



Flat in most of the sectors.

Strong: Telecoms, Health Care
Weak: Utilities, Materials, Consumer Staples, Financials

Other Market Moving Factors

Quadruple witching 

Technical Updates








On the technical updates, the indices are forming something like a double top at the resistance. I shall be more cautious in the market now. There's going to be more violent gyration soon.

Commentaries 


Stock Market Update
16:10 ET Dow -17.46 at 13584.65, Nasdaq +4.00 at 3179.96, S&P -0.11 at 1460.15 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equities began the session on a higher note as quadruple witching contributed to a volume surge at the start. However, after reaching session highs within the first few minutes of trade, the major averages spent the rest of the day drifting towards the unchanged line. As a result the S&P 500 finished flat.

Telecom stocks outperformed as the sector traded higher by 0.6%. MetroPCS (PCS 11.62, +0.43) added 3.8% after the company announced it will carry ZTE's Anthem 4G smartphone—the first ZTE 4G device available in the U.S. Other telecom names were also on the rise as Sprint (S 5.65, +0.21) jumped 3.9% while AT&T (T 38.10, +0.16), 0.21) and Verizon (VZ 45.69, +0.20) both gained 0.4%.

Meanwhile, Inteliquent (IQNT 9.38, -1.02) slid 9.8% after the company's President and Chief Operating Officer, Surendra Saboo announced he will resign from the company, effective October 1, 2012. In addition, IQNT's Chief Financial Officer, Robert Junkroski will also step down on October 1, 2012. Following the pair of resignations, Raymond James downgraded shares of Inteliquent from ‘market perform' to ‘underperform.'

The healthcare sector was also one of the top performers. Within the group, Dehaier Medical (DHRM 2.45, +0.91) soared 59.1% after winning a three-year procurement agreement from a major Ukrainian medical equipment manufacturer. Elsewhere,Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO 7.95, +1.54) surged 24.0% after announcing with partner ViroPharma (VPHM 30.31, +2.13) that the Federal Drug Administration has enabled ViroPharma to resume clinical studies of Cinryze in combination with rHuPH20. Shares of VPHM gained 8.3% after the announcement.

On the downside, VIVUS (VVUS 21.00, -2.72) slumped 11.5% after the company announced it expects to receive an opinion recommending against the approval for weight loss drug Qsiva (trade name Qsymia in the U.S.) from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use in Europe.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average shed 1.0% as it continued its recent underperformance. Expeditors International (EXPD 36.78, -0.75), UPS (UPS 71.88, -0.73), and Norfolk Southern (NSC 65.00, -1.11) all slid between 1.0% and 2.0%. Only Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG 7.31, +0.15) managed to stay positive within the group of twenty transportation stocks.

Shares of Indian companies rallied after India's Sensex index advanced 2.2% to close at its highest level in 14 months. The general strength resulted from the announcement of economic reforms in the country. As a result, The India Fund (IFN 22.50, +0.33) rose 1.5%.

U.S. listings of Indian companies made broad advances as financials ICICI Bank(IBN 39.74, +2.09) and HDFC Bank (HDB 36.78, +0.77) added 5.6% and 2.1%, respectively. Elsewhere, copper producer Sterlite Industries (SLT 7.74, +0.40) jumped 5.5% and car maker Tata Motors (TTM 25.35, +0.70) ended firmer by 2.8%.

Shares of tire makers were under pressure after KeyBanc downgraded Goodyear (GT 12.73, -0.65) and Cooper Tire (CTB 19.94, -2.05) from ‘buy' to ‘hold.' The downgrade resulted from uncertainty over expiring Chinese tariffs, as well as declining tire prices. Goodyear slipped 4.9% while Cooper Tire slid 9.3% in the wake of the rating cut.

Week in Review: Equities Quiet Following QE3

On Monday, stocks began the session on a negative note after the September Empire Manufacturing Survey registered its worst reading since April 2009. The bearish sentiment was then extended as unfounded rumors of tapping into the strategic petroleum reserve sent the major averages to fresh session lows. As a result, the S&P 500 ended lower by 0.3%. IRIS (IRIS 19.47, +0.01) surged 45.6% after announcing that the company will be acquired by Danaher (DHR 54.90, -0.12) for $19.50 per share.

Tuesday's session was mostly uneventful as equities remained near their opening levels throughout the day. The major averages showed some divergence as the S&P 500 shed 0.2% while the Dow added 0.1%. Defensive stocks outperformed as the consumer staples sector was the top performer of the day. FedEx (FDX 84.39, -0.78) beat on earnings and revenues while lowering its second quarter and full-year guidance.

On Wednesday, equities began on a slightly higher note after the Bank of Japan raised its asset purchase target in an attempt to inject additional liquidity into the market and to weaken the yen. Stocks were also boosted slightly by data which indicated an uptick in existing home sales as well as building permits. However, late day selling pushed the major averages off session highs as the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.1%. AutoZone (AZO 371.80, +0.17) added 3.4% after delivering a mixed quarterly report.

Thursday's session got off to a slow start after bearish data from around the world overshadowed investor optimism. Japan reported a wider-than-expected trade deficit while the French and Eurozone PMI readings were well short of expectations. Domestically, the weekly initial claims exceeded expectations. After marking session lows thirty minutes into the trading day, the major averages set off on a climb towards positive territory. As a result, the S&P 500 finished flat. Norfolk Southern (NSC 65.00, -1.11) fell 9.1% after the railroad lowered its guidance due to slumping demand and decreasing revenues from fuel surcharges. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1778/1256. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1526/993.


Commodities



Natural Gas and Wheat had some big movement yesterday. Natural Gas inventory came in almost in line with expectation, having over production of natural gas again. Seems the week ahead of the natural gas is going to be bearish.

Treasuries




10-Yr: unch..1.777%.. USD/JPY: 78.25.. EUR/USD: 1.2967
Flat: Treasuries ended the day flat after early strength faded over the course of the session. The complex saw an overnight bid as macro data mostly missed expectations, but gave up its gains as equities recovered off their opening lows. Sellers emerged after this morning’s Philly Fed number topped estimates, but still pointed to a slowdown in the region. The long bond saw a one point gain evaporate as the steady selling over the course of the day made for a flat close. Maturities across the rest of the complex also finished flat traders await the next catalyst. Little change in the 10-yr made for a close of 1.777%. The yield curve held steady as the 2-10-yr spread held near 151.5 bps. Elsewhere, precious metals were quiet with gold and silver finishing near $1770 and $34.70 respectively. There is no data on Friday



It seems that there's a sell of in treasuries recently. There might be a change in money flow from treasuries to equities market since there's a surge of volumes on last night.

Weekly Analysis
Week 38

Technical Updates






On the weekly technical updates of the indices, the indices is forming a hanging man on all the 3 main indices. That signify the end of trend. I suspect greatly that next week is going to be very volatile.

Commentaries

Weekly Wrap 
Dow -17.46 at 13584.65, Nasdaq +4.00 at 3179.96, S&P -0.11 at 1460.15
Equities began the session on a higher note as quadruple witching contributed to a volume surge at the start. However, after reaching session highs within the first few minutes of trade, the major averages spent the rest of the day drifting towards the unchanged line. As a result the S&P 500 finished flat.
Telecom stocks outperformed as the sector traded higher by 0.6%. MetroPCS (PCS 11.62, +0.43) added 3.8% after the company announced it will carry ZTE's Anthem 4G smartphone—the first ZTE 4G device available in the U.S. Other telecom names were also on the rise as Sprint (S 5.65, +0.21) jumped 3.9% while AT&T (T 38.10, +0.16), 0.21) and Verizon (VZ 45.69, +0.20) both gained 0.4%.
Meanwhile, Inteliquent (IQNT 9.38, -1.02) slid 9.8% after the company's President and Chief Operating Officer, Surendra Saboo announced he will resign from the company, effective October 1, 2012. In addition, IQNT's Chief Financial Officer, Robert Junkroski will also step down on October 1, 2012. Following the pair of resignations, Raymond James downgraded shares of Inteliquent from ‘market perform' to ‘underperform.'
The healthcare sector was also one of the top performers. Within the group, Dehaier Medical (DHRM 2.45, +0.91) soared 59.1% after winning a three-year procurement agreement from a major Ukrainian medical equipment manufacturer. Elsewhere, Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO 7.95, +1.54) surged 24.0% after announcing with partner ViroPharma (VPHM 30.31, +2.13) that the Federal Drug Administration has enabled ViroPharma to resume clinical studies of Cinryze in combination with rHuPH20. Shares of VPHM gained 8.3% after the announcement.
On the downside, VIVUS (VVUS 21.00, -2.72) slumped 11.5% after the company announced it expects to receive an opinion recommending against the approval for weight loss drug Qsiva (trade name Qsymia in the U.S.) from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use in Europe.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average shed 1.0% as it continued its recent underperformance. Expeditors International (EXPD 36.78, -0.75), UPS (UPS 71.88, -0.73), and Norfolk Southern (NSC 65.00, -1.11) all slid between 1.0% and 2.0%. Only Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG 7.31, +0.15) managed to stay positive within the group of twenty transportation stocks.
Shares of Indian companies rallied after India's Sensex index advanced 2.2% to close at its highest level in 14 months. The general strength resulted from the announcement of economic reforms in the country. As a result, The India Fund (IFN 22.50, +0.33) rose 1.5%.
U.S. listings of Indian companies made broad advances as financials ICICI Bank (IBN 39.74, +2.09) and HDFC Bank (HDB 36.78, +0.77) added 5.6% and 2.1%, respectively. Elsewhere, copper producer Sterlite Industries (SLT 7.74, +0.40) jumped 5.5% and car maker Tata Motors (TTM 25.35, +0.70) ended firmer by 2.8%.
Shares of tire makers were under pressure after KeyBanc downgraded Goodyear (GT 12.73, -0.65) and Cooper Tire (CTB 19.94, -2.05) from ‘buy' to ‘hold.' The downgrade resulted from uncertainty over expiring Chinese tariffs, as well as declining tire prices. Goodyear slipped 4.9% while Cooper Tire slid 9.3% in the wake of the rating cut.
Week in Review: Equities Quiet Following QE3
On Monday, stocks began the session on a negative note after the September Empire Manufacturing Survey registered its worst reading since April 2009. The bearish sentiment was then extended as unfounded rumors of tapping into the strategic petroleum reserve sent the major averages to fresh session lows. As a result, the S&P 500 ended lower by 0.3%. IRIS (IRIS 19.47, +0.01) surged 45.6% after announcing that the company will be acquired by Danaher (DHR 54.90, -0.12) for $19.50 per share.
Tuesday's session was mostly uneventful as equities remained near their opening levels throughout the day. The major averages showed some divergence as the S&P 500 shed 0.2% while the Dow added 0.1%. Defensive stocks outperformed as the consumer staples sector was the top performer of the day. FedEx (FDX 84.39, -0.78) beat on earnings and revenues while lowering its second quarter and full-year guidance.
On Wednesday, equities began on a slightly higher note after the Bank of Japan raised its asset purchase target in an attempt to inject additional liquidity into the market and to weaken the yen. Stocks were also boosted slightly by data which indicated an uptick in existing home sales as well as building permits. However, late day selling pushed the major averages off session highs as the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.1%. AutoZone (AZO 371.80, +0.17) added 3.4% after delivering a mixed quarterly report.
Thursday's session got off to a slow start after bearish data from around the world overshadowed investor optimism. Japan reported a wider-than-expected trade deficit while the French and Eurozone PMI readings were well short of expectations. Domestically, the weekly initial claims exceeded expectations. After marking session lows thirty minutes into the trading day, the major averages set off on a climb towards positive territory. As a result, the S&P 500 finished flat. Norfolk Southern (NSC 65.00, -1.11) fell 9.1% after the railroad lowered its guidance due to slumping demand and decreasing revenues from fuel surcharges.




Next Week In View








Next week is going to be flat and volatile. As there are not much important data coming out next week. Mainly the consumer confidence, new home sales and durable goods order.

I suspect greatly that next week will likely to be a down week while people starts to profit take before breaking into new highs.

Market Call(Weekly): DOWN
Market Call: UP
Date: 24 Sep 2012

Wednesday 19 September 2012

19 Sep 2012


19 September
Market Summary 


Well... this day was flat... So i'm kinda right... Market tanked slightly in the first 15 mins thereafter fought back up the gains... 3 days of flat day. The market is apparently waiting for something. Housing remains flat, and everyone else is addicted to QE. What happens when QE doesn't work anymore. For now, in the near term 3-6months time, it's going to be bullish. But when the market breaks into new highs, the harder the fall is going to be.


 Other Moving Factors

Bank of Japan increases asset purchases to JPY80 trillion.
Existing home sales better than expected: 4.82 million actual versus 4.58 expected.
Housing starts below expectations: 750k actual versus 770k expected.
Building permits slightly higher than expected: 803k actual versus 800k expected.



Market Internals




Somehow... in a flat day... the New highs totally outpaced New Lows whereas the rest of the internals are showing flat sentiments...


Leaders and Laggards


The discretionary is the strongest leader of all yesterday.

Technical Updates







a downside crucifix on all 3 indices yesterday... but i doubt it will serve much effect today...

Commentaries 


Stock Market Update
16:15 ET Dow +13.32 at 13583.14, Nasdaq +4.82 at 3182.62, S&P +1.73 at 1461.05 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equities began today's session on a slightly higher note after the Bank of Japan raised its asset purchase target in an attempt to inject additional liquidity into the market and to weaken the yen. Stocks were also boosted slightly by positive economic data which indicated an uptick in existing home sales as well as building permits. However, late day selling pushed the major averages off their best levels of the session as the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.1%. 

Consumer discretionary stocks were the top performer of the day. Two names within the group advanced after reporting earnings. AutoZone (AZO 369.95, +12.11) added 3.4% after delivering a mixed quarterly report. The auto parts retailer beat on earnings, but missed on revenues and reported an increase in inventory. General Mills (GIS 40.02, +0.71) advanced 1.8% after beating on earnings and missing on revenues. The company issued in-line guidance and the management sees "a slow improvement in price and volume trends across [the company's] retail food categories." 

Elsewhere within the sector, Chiquita Brands (CQB 7.32, +0.87) and Del Monte (FDP 25.40, +1.37) jumped 13.5% and 5.7%, respectively. The two listings rallied after BB&T upgraded shares of both companies from ‘hold' to ‘buy.' 

The energy sector underperformed the broader market with oil sliding another 3.6% to continue its recent weakness. The energy component has fallen nearly 9.0% since last week. In addition, the Department of Energy reported that during the past week oil inventories saw a build of 8.534 million barrels against expectations of a build of 1.4 million. Northern Oil and Gas (NOG 17.91, -0.66) shed 3.6% and increased options activity was spotted in the stock. The October 19 puts have traded 1310 contracts against an open interest of just 100. 

Meanwhile, PDC Energy (PDCE 30.99, -1.93) slumped 5.9% after announcing it is no longer looking to develop its Utica Shale as part of a joint venture. Instead, the company will continue to work independently on the southeast Ohio property. Approach Resources (AREX 30.77, -1.88) was another notable laggard which slid 5.8% after announcing an offering of five million shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering. 

Groupon (GRPN 5.34, +0.65) surged 13.9% after the company launched a mobile payment service which it claims is "the lowest-cost option" available to merchants. According to reports, merchants who have active deals with Groupon will pay 1.8% of the total transaction price plus a 15 cent surcharge when using Visa, MasterCard, or Discover. Payments made with American Express will be subject to a 15 cent surcharge as well as 3.0% of the total transaction. In addition, Groupon Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Mason appeared on CNBC where he said the company is growing 50% year-over-year and described Groupon as "more than just a coupon company." 

Questcor (QCOR 26.35, -24.17) plunged 47.8% after reports indicated insurer Aetna denied coverage of the company's Acthar gel. The rejection was followed by a negative research report released by Citron. Shares of Questcor responded to the comments with an initial drop of nearly 56.0%. Following a trading halt, the stock has been able to recover some of its losses after Piper Jaffray suggested Aetna's comments are not a blanket statement of ‘no coverage.' Instead, coverage may be available after a patient is subject to a steroid treatment first. 

Existing home sales for August hit an annualized rate of 4.82 million units, which was stronger than the rate of 4.58 million units that had been generally expected among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The pace for August is up from the prior month rate of 4.47 million units. 

Housing starts hit an annualized rate of 750,000 units during August. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected for housing starts to hit an annual rate closer to 770,000. Prior month figures were revised downward to reflect an annual rate of 733,000 housing starts. 

As for building permits, they slipped from the prior month's downwardly revised rate of 811,000 to 803,000 for August. That is above the pace of 800,000 building permits that had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

In tomorrow's economic data, weekly initial and continuing claims will be reported at 8:30 ET. Also of note, the September Philadelphia Fed Survey and leading indicators will be released at 10:00 ET. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1741/1259. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1167/1299.




After Hours
16:53 ET APOG +17.5%, SCS +3.8%, NSC -5.3%, BBBY -4.8% following earnings/guidance :
Equities began today's session on a slightly higher note after the Bank of Japan raised its asset purchase target in an attempt to inject additional liquidity into the market and to weaken the yen. Stocks were also boosted slightly by positive economic data which indicated an uptick in existing home sales as well as building permits. However, late day selling pushed the major averages off their best levels of the session as the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.1%.
Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: AIR, ADBE, APOG, BBBY, CLC, MLHR, SCS
Futures are lower after hours: S&P 500 futures are -1.84 from fair value of 1454.34 and Nasdaq100 futures are -7.84 from fair value of 2857.48.
Tomorrow morning before the open one economic report is scheduled to be released: 1) Initial Claims (Consensus 375k) and Continuing Claims (Consensus 3,293k).
Tomorrow before the open the following companies are scheduled to report earnings: KMX, CAG, IHS, JEF, MCS, RAD, SCHL

Commodities

not a lot of movements in the commodities as of 2pm SG time.
Treasuries





 Treasuries continue to sell off...something is going happening! Draghi took off his speech on thursday... But we will be looking at a few key data coming out today.

The Phily Fed @ 10am ET, Unemployment Claims 830am ET. Also to note that the BOE Gov King speaks at 2pm ET.


Market Call:Flat(to upside)
Date:20 Sept 2012