30 May 2013 AMC

30 May 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

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Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:10 ET Dow +21.73 at 15324.53, Nasdaq +23.78 at 3491.3, S&P +6.05 at 1654.41 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages settled with modest gains as late afternoon selling took hold following a headline from Nikkei news, indicating Japan plans to impose new foreign exchange margin trading rules. The news caused dollar/yen to slip into the red while also weighing on equities.  Six of ten sectors ended in the black as financials and technology paced the broad market gains.  Most major financials saw gains of at least 1.0% as Morgan Stanley (MS 25.82, +0.84) climbed 3.4% to outperform its peers. Meanwhile, the broader financial sector rose 1.1% to extend its May gain to 7.6%.  Elsewhere, technology shares received support from major components like Apple(AAPL 451.58, +6.63), and Microsoft (MSFT 35.03, +0.15), as well as high-beta chipmakers. The PHLX Semiconductor Index settled higher by 1.5%.  The relative strength of technology contributed to the outperformance of the Nasdaq, with additional support coming from biotech. The Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 183.23, +2.16) gained 1.2%.  Biotechnology also constitutes a good portion of the health care sector, which outperformed its defensively-oriented peers, adding 0.7%.  Another defensively-minded group, utilities, was up as much as 2.0% in early action before surrendering the bulk of its gains to settle up 0.2%. The morning rally took place after NV Energy (NVE 23.62, +4.34) agreed to be acquired by Berkshire Hathaway's MidAmerican for $23.75 per share, representing a 23.2% premium to yesterday's closing price. Despite ending in the black, the utilities sector remains the weakest performer of the month, down 9.0%.  Only a handful of names reported their quarterly results this morning. Industrial component Joy Global (JOY 55.61, +0.53) added 1.0% after its above-consensus results overshadowed the machinery manufacturer's cautious full-year guidance.  In retail earnings, Express (EXPR 21.20, +2.41) surged 12.8% after its solid report was coupled with upbeat bottom-line guidance. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 77.79, +0.27) tacked on 0.4%.  Initial claims for the week ending May 25 jumped by 10,000 to 354,000. The Briefing.com consensus expected the claims level to be 340,000. That bumped up the four-week moving average by 6,750 to 347,250.  The second estimate of first quarter GDP produced a small downward revision to 2.4% from 2.5% (Briefing.com consensus +2.5%) while the GDP deflator slipped to 1.1% from 1.2% (Briefing.com consensus +1.2%).  The upshot of the revision was that personal consumption expenditures growth was revised higher to 3.4% from 3.2%. That was the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2010 and it boosted the PCE contribution to GDP growth to 2.4 percentage points from 2.2 percentage points at the first estimate.  Increases in private inventory investment, exports, and imports were less than previously estimated. The lower contribution from the change in private inventories and nonresidential structures were offsetting factors to the uptick in the PCE contribution.  Lastly, pending home sales for April rose 0.3%, which was worse than the 1.5% increase forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading follows last month's rise of 1.5%.  Tomorrow, April personal income, personal spending, and core PCE prices will all be announced at 8:30 ET. This will be followed by the 9:45 ET release of the May Chicago PMI while the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for May will cross the wires at 9:55 ET. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1787/1212. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1727/776.

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Jason's Commentaries


I was right last night! Expecting the volatility to continue for a while before the market decides to break out from this consolidation. Volumes were standing at 710m shares and there are tonnes of divergence all around the place. The market is really getting confused and there are a lot of players sidelined. VIX went down last night, but the DVOL was higher than UVOL etc... 

On the technical side, the market is touching the moving averages as resistance and it seems that we're likely to go up on Friday, before we head to the 1st week of June where the NFP comes out. Treasuries rallied last night with the 2,5,10 and 30 years heading up after much decrease in value. It might seems that the treasuries might rally up if the market decides to take a tanker. 

Market Call: FLAT to UPSIDE

Date: 31 May 2013

29 May 2013 AMC

29 May 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

 

Market Internals

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Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow -106.59 at 15302.8, Nasdaq -21.37 at 3467.52, S&P -11.70 at 1648.36 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages settled with modest losses as the S&P 500 shed 0.7%.  Equities slipped out of the gate as sellers drove the major averages to their lows 90 minutes into the session. This marked the return of bargain hunters, who helped the S&P return to its opening levels. However, the relative weakness of several influential groups kept the benchmark average from regaining its flat line.  Defensively-geared groups bore the brunt of today's selling as consumer staples, health care, telecom, and utilities all ended with losses larger than 1.5%.  Today's 1.5% decline in utilities ran the sector's month-to-date loss to 9.2% while the underperformance of consumer staples caused the sector to surrender all of its May gains.  While countercyclical sectors logged sharp losses, growth-sensitive groups held up generally well.  Financials and technology weathered the early selling as the relative strength of large components allowed the sectors to end little changed.  The financial space benefitted from the gains in Goldman Sachs (GS 162.87, +2.17) as the stock spent the entire day in positive territory before closing near its high.  Elsewhere, tech shares received a boost from key components like Apple (AAPL 444.95, +3.51) and Cisco Systems (CSCO 24.12, +0.23), as well as chipmakers. Intel(INTC 24.27, +0.19) settled higher by 0.8% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 0.3%.  Industrials also outperformed, but the relative strength of the sector overshadowed the weakness of transportation related stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 1.1% as 18 of 20 components ended in the red.  Also of note, homebuilders saw broad losses as the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF(XHB 31.20, -0.73) dropped 2.4%.  Today's early selling caused the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.86, +0.38) to jump above 15.00% for the first time in over a month as investors adjusted their near-term volatility expectations.  Although below-average volume has been a recurring theme in the market, today's decline occurred on above-average volume as 723 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  Economic news of the day was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which decreased 8.8% to follow last week's decline of 9.8%.  Tomorrow, weekly initial claims and the second estimate of first quarter GDP will be reported at 8:30 ET while April pending home sales will be announced at 10:00 ET. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 617/2452. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 758/1726.

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Jason's Commentaries


What a volatile session we had last night... Dow was down by 150 points before closing at -100 points. Not much negative economic reports but however, causing such a volatile session. If the volatility continues, we might be at the top of the trend already, buying might be slowing down and profit taking will cause a massive sell-off. 

Volumes were standing at 722m shares traded on the NYSE while the DVOL outpaced the UVOL by 2:1. Not exactly that bearish as I thought. And surprisingly, the TRIN was in the bullish region through the session. This clearly showed that the market was oversold last night. I won't say it's a clear bear day but rather it's a flat day to the downside to me with the internals pointing towards the downside. VIX closed slightly higher at 14.82 points.

  On the technical perspective, it looks like a reversal pattern on the resistance at 15550 and we might be looking at a double top forming. But.. i'm gonna see what the market is doing before taking my entries. 

On the commodities, the precious metals had a rather volatile Wednesday and Oil had a massive drop which caused Oil to be at 92.70 as of 4.39am ET. The Treasuries did not have much movements ahead of the Pending home sales and the Unemployment claims. Futures were pointing towards the downside for the open for Thursday and I reckon the market is likely to stay flat for today. 

Market Call: FLAT to Upside

Date: 26 Apr 2013

28 May 2013 AMC

28 May 2013 AMC

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Market Internals

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Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:10 ET Dow +106.29 at 15409.39, Nasdaq +29.74 at 3488.89, S&P +10.46 at 1660.06 : [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended with solid gains as the Dow Jones Industrial Average logged its 20th consecutive advance on a Tuesday.  Equities surged out of the gate, but the early enthusiasm faded an hour into the session when the major averages notched their highs, and began their retreat towards Friday's closing levels.  The early action saw nine of ten sectors register gains of at least 1.0%. However, the defensively-geared utilities spent the entire day in negative territory before ending lower by 1.2%. A Deutsche Bank downgrade of Exelon (EXC 32.05, -2.60) weighed on the rate-sensitive sector, which extended its May loss to 7.8%.  Other defensive groups finished mixed as afternoon weakness sent the telecom sector lower by 1.3% while consumer staples ended little changed.  The health care space was able to outperform other counter-cyclical groups as biotechnology displayed strength. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 183.03, +2.29) settled higher by 1.3% after being up as much as 2.3% in early action.  While defensively-geared sectors finished mixed, the six cyclical groups saw comparable gains.  Financials displayed strength as most majors climbed at least 1.0%. However, mortgage real estate investment trusts like American Capital Agency (AGNC 26.41, -1.31) andAnnaly Capital Management (NLY 13.92, -0.50) were pressured by the continued weakness in Treasuries. A decrease in prices creates a headwind for the highly-levered group by lowering the value of mortgage investment portfolios.  The industrial sector trailed behind other growth-sensitive areas as transportation-related names lagged. Members of the Dow Jones Transportation Average were active today asLandstar System (LSTR 53.49, -1.15) lost 2.1% after lowering its second quarter guidance. In addition, CSX (CSX 25.29, -0.21) shed 0.8% after one of its trains derailed outside of Baltimore.  Also of note, airlines finished broadly lower amid reports the Obama administration has proposed raising taxes on air travel by $14 per flight.  Only a handful of names reported their quarterly results this morning. Better-than-expected earnings and revenue from Tiffany's (TIF 79.22, +3.01) provided a boost to retailers as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 77.99, +0.40) settled higher by 0.5%.  Aggressive selling across the Treasury complex resulted in 10-yr yield climbing higher by 16 basis points to 2.170%, a 13-month high.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.47, +0.48) began the session in the red, but intraday broad market weakness lifted the near-term volatility measure into positive territory.  Today's economic data was limited to just two releases.  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report for May brought encouraging news with the index rising to 76.2 from 68.1 in April. The Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 72.5. The May number was the highest since February 2008.  The uptick in confidence fits with the improvement in labor market conditions and fits neatly with the ongoing strength in the stock market and housing market that have produced their share of positive-sounding headlines.  Separately, the March Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index rose 10.9% while a 10.1% increase had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This follows the previous month's increase of 9.3%.  Tomorrow's economic news will be limited to the 7:00 ET release of the weekly MBA Mortgage Index. The U.S. Treasury will auction $35 billion in 5-yr notes. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1776/1278. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1771/746.

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Jason's Commentaries


Guess it's kind of my mistake to go against my gut feel to short the market on Friday, which got myself stopped out by the opening bell. Friday was actually more of a down day after 2 consecutive upside crucifix, which is pointing towards an upwards movement. By opening bell, the Dow futures were up more than 120 points, and the market continued the bullish movement till 1030am ET, which subsequent lost around 40% of its gains. 
While the internals were pointing towards a slightly bullish days with the UVOL outpacing half of the DVOL. However, VIX was up last night. Of the sectors, Utilities were the only loser and the other sectors made a significant gains.
On the technical perspective, it looks like 15,500 price level is a tough one to break, and we might be looking at a volatile period forming. While at 645am ET, Dow futures were down at 77 points already, with the Hang Seng closing at 1.61% loss. Perhaps the market is looking to go into a defensive stature already  On the commodities area, the precious metals were undergoing a crazy ride last night and leading into a flat day today while oil made a magnificent ride last night. Conrad got the ride and made a near $3k profit on 2 contracts of oil. 
On the economic reports, we do not have much data coming out, so I reckon it might be a rather flat day, continuing from the sentiment in Asian, we're likely to have a flat but bearish day. 

Market Call: Flat to downside

Date: 29 May 2013

24 May 2013 AMC

24 May 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

Market Internals

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Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:10 ET Dow +8.60 at 15303.1, Nasdaq -0.27 at 3459.14, S&P -0.91 at 1649.6 :[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks entered the weekend on a mixed note as the S&P 500 shed 0.1% while the Dow ended with a gain of 0.1%.  The major averages began the day on a lower note as nine of ten sectors saw losses of more than 0.5%.  The consumer staples sector was the lone exception as the group spent the entire day in positive territory thanks to the relative strength of Dow component Procter & Gamble(PG 81.89, +3.19). The second-largest staple stock advanced 4.1% after the company reaffirmed its fourth quarter guidance and named Alan Lafley President, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Lafley had previously served as company President and CEO from 2000 to 2009.  With light volume ahead of the holiday weekend, the broader market drifted back towards yesterday's closing levels. However, the S&P was kept from turning positive by the underperformance of influential sectors.  The energy space lost 0.4% as crude oil shed 0.4% to end at $93.92. Meanwhile, the other commodity-related sector, materials, slipped 0.3% as steelmakers lagged. TheMarket Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 41.67, -0.42) ended lower by 1.0%.  Industrials also pressured the broader market as transportation-related names sold off. Relative weakness in truckers, delivery services, and shippers caused the Dow Jones Transportation Average to lose 0.5%. However, another industrial subgroup, defense stocks, fared relatively well as the PHLX Defense Index rose 0.1%.  Cyclical groups saw comparable losses in early action. However, the financial sector displayed some afternoon strength as major banks registered gains. As a result, the sector ended with a slim gain of 0.1%.  Today's biggest laggards could be found in the high-yielding utilities sector as the group continued its recent weakness. Including today's 1.0% decline, the sector lost 3.7% this week, and is down 6.7% in May.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.11, +0.04) spiked to 14.79% amid the early weakness before the near-term volatility measure surrendered the bulk of its gains.  As mentioned earlier, volume was well below average with only 591 million shares changing hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  Today's economic data was limited to durable goods orders. For April, orders rose 3.3% after declining an upwardly revised 5.9% (from -6.9%) in March. The Briefing.com consensus expected durable goods orders to rise 1.6%. The sawtooth pattern in transportation held up despite Boeing (BA 100.00, +0.25) announcing lower aircraft orders in April. Transportation orders rose 8.1% in April as defense and nondefense aircraft orders increased 25.7%.  Excluding transportation, durable goods demand was solid all-around and increased 1.3% in April after declining 1.7% in March.  Note that equity and bond markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. On Tuesday, the March Case-Shiller 20-city Index will be reported at 9:00 ET while May consumer confidence will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

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Weekly Analysis
Week 38



Technical Updates



Briefing's Commentaries

Week in Review: S&P 500 Registers First Weekly Loss of the Month 
On Monday, the major averages registered slim losses after intraday action saw the Russell 2000 cross above the 1,000 level for the first time. The lack of conviction was owed in part to a lack of stirring catalysts. M&A activity was among the notable developments as Yahoo! (YHOO 26.33, +0.31) acquired Tumblr for $1.1 billion in cash. Stocks ended Tuesday's session modestly higher as the S&P 500 climbed 0.2% and the Dow added 0.4% to register its 19th consecutive Tuesday of gains. Equity indices saw little change during morning action, but afternoon buying interest helped lift the three averages to session highs. Most cyclical sectors (with the exception of materials and technology) finished among the leaders, but the defensively-geared health care sector settled atop the leaderboard as biotechnology continued its strong run with the iSharesNasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 180.74, -0.53) advancing 1.0%. 

Wednesday saw the S&P 500 settle lower by 0.8% after early strength turned into afternoon weakness. From highs to lows, the S&P fell 1.9% as investors focused on Ben Bernanke's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. During his remarks, Chairman Bernanke said premature tightening of monetary policy could stall the pace of recovery. Equities spiked at the start of the testimony, but sellers made their presence known this afternoon as the major averages slumped to session lows. The utilities and telecom sectors led to the downside as traders continued to dump income-oriented names. Elsewhere, the energy space lost 1.2% as crude oil declined 2.1%. The energy component ended at $94.18 per barrel, and weighed on the growth-sensitive sector. 

On Thursday, the major averages ended modestly lower with the S&P 500 shedding 0.3%. The benchmark average saw an opening loss of 1.2% after Japan's Nikkei tumbled 7.3%. Japanese stocks sold off amid continued volatility in Japanese Government Bond futures as the 10-yr yield spiked to 1.002 before the Bank of Japan's JPY2 trillion liquidity injection caused yields to slide back to session lows. Adding insult to injury was news out of China where the HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.6 actual, 50.5 consensus, 50.4 prior) fell below 50 for the first time in seven months. The utilities sector was the weakest performer, ending lower by 0.8% after a morning flash crash in American Electric Power (AEP 47.71, -0.57) and NextEra Energy (NEE 77.30, -0.92) briefly wiped out more than $33 billion in combined market capitalization. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1330/1639. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1279/1174.
 

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Jason's Commentaries

On Friday, the market opened significantly lower with the futures down more than 100 points. However, the market started recovering at approx 1030am ET. By closing bell, the market regained all its losses and managed to end flat on the Dow but Nasdaq and S&P500 closed with a loss ahead of the long weekend in US. 

While looking at the internals, the volumes were much lesser than expected, with only 576mil shares traded. The internals were pointing towards a bearish sentiment rather than a bullish one. On the sectors performance, utilities were the biggest loser while consumer staples were the biggest gainer. The other sectors remained flat.The VIX ended at 14.19 after reaching a high of 14.8.

On the technical updates, we've 2 consecutive upside crucifix on the Dow, and we're likely to see a up day on Tuesday, especially after the long weekend. Treasuries sunk on Friday, which caused the market to be a little mixed. If we're able to have a bear day on Tuesday, the market is likely to go down fast. 

On the weekly perspective, we finally have our first week of reversal after 4 straight weeks of up weeks. However, I believe that the bullish sentiment might be able to keep the market through the last week of May. On the news that there are more sentiment within the Fed to end QE, which the market is heavily concerned about, there are likely more people pulling out of the market. Looking at the broader picture, Nikkei has been dropping tremendously, even on Monday we saw a drop of 3.2%

We're unlikely experience much volatility this week as there not much economic events happening. Futures were up 94 points on the Dow, and we're likely to a up Tuesday.

Market Call: UP

Date: 28 May 2013