27 Mar 2013 AMC

27 Mar 2013

Market Summary

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:15 ET Dow -33.49 at 14526.16, Nasdaq +4.04 at 3256.52, S&P -0.92 at 1562.85 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended the day on a mixed note. The S&P 500 ended lower by 0.1% while Nasdaq added 0.1%.  Although the broader market ended little changed, that did not serve as an accurate portrayal of the day's developments.  The S&P 500 began the session lower by 0.8% as European worries remained at the forefront. The future of the eurozone hangs in the balance with market participants speculating whether or not the European Union will copy the Cypriot playbook next time a troubled nation is in need of emergency assistance.  Further, Italy appears to be headed for another round of elections after Pier Luigi Bersani was unable to form a coalition government. In addition, the Bank of England warned that British banks face a GBP25 billion capital shortfall. Lastly, both France and the United Kingdom reported a 0.3% GDP contraction in their final fourth quarter readings.  The mounting worries resulted in cautious European trade, which saw a safety bid push the German 10-yr yield lower by eight basis points to 1.27%.  In the U.S., bank stocks reflected the uncertainty surrounding the eurozone. While most sectors ended the session well off their lows, banks settled near the bottom of today's range. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 18.16, -0.09) ended lower by 0.5% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 47.77, -0.87) was the weakest performer among the majors. Shares of JPMorgan fell 1.8% to close below their 50-day moving average.  Elsewhere, the technology sector trailed behind the broader market, largely due to the underperformance of Apple (AAPL 452.08, -9.06). The largest tech stock sold off throughout the day, and settled lower by 2.0%.  Although Apple weighed on technology, the remainder of the sector displayed some relative strength. Microprocessor manufacturers outperformed and the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which tracks 30 chipmakers, ended with a slim gain of 0.1%.  On the upside, defensively-oriented health care and utilities ended with modest gains. In addition, the energy sector climbed steadily off its opening lows and the SPDR EnergySelect Sector ETF (XLE 79.54, +0.26) ended higher by 0.3%.  Even though the broader market ended little changed, a different story was told by currencies and Treasuries.  In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar index climbed in early trade, and held near its highs for the duration of the day. The index ended higher by 0.4% at 83.23. Today's strength was due in large part to weakness in the euro which fell to 1.2770 against the greenback, its lowest level since November.  Meanwhile, the Treasury complex saw an overnight bid which continued into the morning, pushing the 10-yr yield lower by six basis points to 1.85%.  Volume outpaced yesterday's second-lowest total of the year, but today's tally of 596 million remained well below average.  Pending home sales for February fell 0.4%, which was worse than the 2.0% increase forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised drop of 3.8%.  Tomorrow, weekly initial and continuing claims will be reported at 8:30 ET. In addition, the third estimate of fourth quarter GDP and GDP deflator will also be announced at 8:30. Lastly, March Chicago PMI will be released at 9:45 ET.  The U.S. Treasury will auction off $29 billion in 7-yr notes. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1588/1407. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1158/1261.

Commodities

Treasuries

Next Day In View 

Jason's Commentaries


It looked more like a flat day to me last night. The major indices fought back up from negative to end flat with the Dow losing 20 points. Internals were showing the bears were on par with bulls but the bulls dominated the day. Volumes were well under average at 596million shares traded on the NYSE. We're still trapped in this consolidation phase of the market and it seems to me a lot of volumes are sidelined and getting cautious. VIX has been at the level of 13-15 points. On top of the weaker volumes, the defensive sectors has been leading for the past few days. This is getting worried ahead of the earnings seasons, with Alcoa announcing its earnings on the 8 Apr. Now the market is waiting for the next movement before the missing volumes come back and join in the fun. Since we're ahead of the long weekend, we're unlikely to have a down day.

Market Call: FLAT to upside

Date: 28 Mar 2013

26 Mar 2013 AMC

26 Mar 2013

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:20 ET Dow +111.90 at 14559.65, Nasdaq +17.18 at 3252.48, S&P +12.08 at 1563.77 : [BRIEFING.COM] Equities finished today's session with firm gains and the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.8%. After starting the day on a positive note, the benchmark average spent the balance of the session in a six-point range.  An otherwise quiet session was interrupted by a brief morning stumble when Reuters cited a European lawmaker, who said the European parliament will push for depositors with more than EUR100,000 to face bail-ins under a new resolution law. The remark carried a similar tone to yesterday's comments from Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who hinted the framework of the Cypriot rescue package may be used again in the future.  Although the major averages ended firmly higher, defensive sectors were the clear winners while economically-sensitive groups trailed behind the broader market.  The health care space showed strength at the open, and led the S&P 500 throughout the day. In addition, consumer staples and utilities also found themselves in the top half of today's sector rankings.  Energy was the only economically-sensitive group which settled among the leaders. Crude oil contributed to the sector strength as the energy component climbed 1.5% to $96.26. Meanwhile, the SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE 79.28, +0.83) ended higher by 1.1%.  Outside of energy, other cyclical sectors saw more limited gains. The consumer discretionary sector underperformed after February new home sales and March consumer confidence missed expectations.  New home sales in February hit an annualized rate of 411,000, which was down from January's revised rate of 431,000, and worse than the rate of 426,000 that had been broadly expected by the Briefing.com consensus. The news caused homebuilders to miss out on today's rally, and the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF(ITB 23.98, -0.05) settled lower by 0.2%.  Elsewhere, retailers underperformed after March consumer confidence slipped to 59.7 (66.9 Briefing.com consensus) from February's reading of 69.0. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 70.29, +0.02) ended flat after being down as much as 0.6% intraday.  Also of note, producers of basic materials lagged after being the weakest performing group in each of the past three sessions. As a result, the SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 39.04, +0.27) is down nearly 1.5% since last Wednesday's close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has added five points in that same timeframe.  While the S&P 500 ended firmly higher, the Russell 2000 did not share that optimism. The small cap index spent the bulk of the day near its unchanged level before a late-afternoon bid contributed to a gain of 0.3%.  Today's volume was the second lowest of the year as just over 558 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  Looking back at the final sector rankings, health care (+1.2%), energy (+1.1%), utilities (+1.0%), and consumer staples (+0.9%) outperformed while industrials (+0.5%), consumer discretionary (+0.5%), and materials (+0.6%) lagged.  Reviewing today's remaining economic data, durable goods orders jumped 5.7% (Briefing.com consensus +3.8%) in February, led by a 21.7% increase in transportation equipment orders that totaled $74.4 billion. The improvement was paced by a 95.3% gain in nondefense aircraft and parts that flowed from a large pickup in orders at Boeing (BA 86.62, +1.77). Excluding transportation, orders declined 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%).  The January Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index rose 8.1% while a 7.5% increase had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This follows the previous month's increase of 6.8%.  In tomorrow's economic news, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET and February pending home sales will be announced at 10:00 ET.  The U.S. Treasury will auction off $35 billion in 5-yr notes. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2067/926. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1422/1015.

Commodities

Treasuries

Next Day In View 

Jason's Commentaries


This is really getting funky... Volumes were diverging and the defensive sectors led the 'bull run' last night. Totally fishy. Even though the market just broke into the new high. I'm starting to feel the losing of steam in the market. Just one more week to the earnings season and people are starting to take their money off the market after the market has been making highs. While we're are having just over 550m shares traded in the NYSE, far below the average of 700m shares, the bulls merely outpaced the bears by a mere 2:1. That doesn't look like a day with 111 points gain on the Dow. On top of that, the Treasuries rallied as well. With all the gains in the defensive components, it seems that the market is starting to shift into safer assets already. 

At Asia close, the Nikkei and Hang Seng looked fantastic. However, the moment i turned my eyes to the Dow futures, it was down to 70 points at 7am ET. Seenms to me that the market is likely to continue it's one-day-up, one-day-down behaviour.  

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 27 Mar 2013

25 Mar 2013 AMC

25 Mar 2013

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:15 ET Dow -64.28 at 14447.75, Nasdaq -9.70 at 3235.3, S&P -5.20 at 1551.69 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended today's headline-filled session with modest losses, and the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.3%. Equities began the day amid broad strength, which brought the benchmark average within a point of a record high close. The morning gains came about after Cyprus and the Eurogroup agreed on the terms of a rescue package for the island nation. The early strength did not hold past the opening hour as the S&P 500 began slipping towards fresh session lows. That slide accelerated when Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem gave an interview to Reuters in which he explained how the Cypriot bank restructuring may be used as a template for future bailout talks. The comments had an immediate impact on equities with Italian bank stocks feeling the brunt of the headline-driven selling. Notably, a safety bid ran German Bunds to session highs into the close, pushing the 10-yr yield down six basis points to 1.33%. As U.S. equities hovered near session lows, an afternoon statement from Mr. Dijsselbloem lifted markets off their worst levels. The Eurogroup head said, "Cyprus is a unique case...no models or templates are used." Although the comments gave equities a brief bounce, the S&P 500 settled near its lows. Growth-oriented sectors were responsible for the bulk of today's losses. The industrial space ended as the biggest laggard amid broad weakness. Machinery producers lagged throughout the day, and Caterpillar (CAT 86.69, -0.79) lost 0.9%. In addition, underperformance from transportation-related stocks caused the Dow Jones Transportation Average to settle lower by 0.7%. FedEx (FDX 97.02, -1.46), which reported disappointing earnings and issued cautious guidance last Wednesday, fell 1.5%. Shares of FedEx are down over 8.5% since last week's quarterly report. Elsewhere, the materials sector saw an extension of its recent weakness. The SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 38.77, -0.30) slid 0.8% after the last two sessions saw the cyclical group end as the weakest performer. In addition to underperformance from economically-sensitive sectors, copper futures slipped 0.5% to $3.45 per pound. At the end of the day, all ten S&P 500 sectors ended in the red. The countercyclical consumer staples group settled with the slimmest loss and the SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP 39.27, -0.03) shed 0.1%. Trading volume was below average as 660 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. There was no economic data of note released today. Tomorrow, February durable goods orders and durable orders ex-transportation will be released at 8:30 ET. The January Case-Shiller 20-city Index is set to follow at 9:00 ET while February new home sales and March consumer confidence will both be reported at 10:00 ET. The U.S. Treasury will auction off $35 billion in 2-yr notes. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1222/1789. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1160/1265.

Commodities

Treasuries

Next Day In View 

Jason's Commentaries

Last night was a down Monday, it seems that the market is going to consolidate for a while. The Cyprus deal is going to cause the euro market to be a little shaky. Which will have some downward pressure on the US market. Last night the market had a bullish bias carried forward from the Asia close. However, the bullishness did not last, sold off after 1030pm. Caterpillar was one of the biggest laggard despite receiving a $633M contract from the defence department. We'll likely to consolidate till next week when the earnings is going to rock the whole market. Oil spiked last night to a $94 price level. Treasuries did not show any movement after William Dudley and Bernanke's talk. We're going to have a few reports coming out today. We're likely to have a flat day today. 

Market Call: FLAT 

Date: 25 Mar 2013

22 Mar 2013 AMC, 25 Mar BMO

22 Mar 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

Market Internals

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries 

Stock Market Update 16:25 ET Dow +90.54 at 14512.03, Nasdaq +22.40 at 3245, S&P +11.09 at 1556.89 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices finished today's session firmly higher and the S&P 500 settled with a gain of 0.7%.  Stocks began the final session of the week on a positive note with notable strength in consumer stocks. The consumer discretionary sector paced today's advance from the opening bell after Nike (NKE 59.53, +5.93) and Tiffany (TIF 69.23, +1.32) reported bottom line beats and contributed to the relative strength of retailers. In addition, quick service restaurant operators outperformed after Darden Restaurants (DRI 49.62, +0.66) beat on earnings.  The growth-oriented discretionary sector was followed by its defensively-minded cousin, consumer staples. Food and beverage producers saw relative strength after reports indicated investor Nelson Peltz has built stakes in both Mondelez International (MDLZ 29.73, +1.17) and Pepsico (PEP 78.64, +2.49). The two stocks settled with respective gains of 4.1% and 3.3%.  The mixed sector leadership reflected a certain degree of uncertainty, which remains in the market. Going into the weekend, the situation in Cyprus remains unresolved with the latest reports indicating the Cypriot parliament has made some headway, but considerable funding needs remain unaddressed.  Although equities finished higher and appeared unconcerned by potential negative fallout from the inability to reach agreement, financials did not share that optimism. Bank of America (BAC 12.56, -0.01) and Citigroup (C 45.23, 0.00) ended little changed while the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 18.18, +0.11) underperformed the broader market with a gain of 0.6%. Notably, the financial sector proxy ETF ended the week lower by 1.5% as the possibility of a Cypriot exit from the eurozone weighed.  While major financials were tentative in their advance, the growth-oriented materials sector did not participate in the rally at all. After starting the session in line with the broader market, the SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 39.07, +0.05) slid back to its unchanged level, and remained there until the close. The lack of a bounce in basic materials was notable as the sector bore the brunt of yesterday's selling.  Elsewhere, tech shares also underperformed notably in yesterday's action, but finished today in the middle of sector rankings. Although most tech stocks rebounded, Oracle(ORCL 31.98, -0.32) remained under pressure after reporting below-consensus earnings following Wednesday's close.  Trading volume was the lowest of the week as just over 620 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  Reviewing the final sector performance, consumer discretionary (+1.2%), consumer staples (+0.9%), energy (+0.8%), and telecom (+0.7%) finished in the lead. On the downside, materials (+0.1%), utilities (+0.2%), and financials (+0.5%) trailed behind the broader market.  There was no economic news released today with Monday's economic calendar also free of scheduled reports.

Commodities

Treasuries

Weekly Analysis
Week 38



Technical Updates















Briefing's Commentaries


On Monday, equities began the session amid broad losses after the conditions of a Cypriot bailout put the package in jeopardy of being voted down in the country's parliament. Per the original agreement, Eurozone rescue funds would provide Cyprus with EUR10 billion in recapitalization with a ‘stability levy' imposed on all bank accounts expected to raise an additional EUR5.8 billion. The financial sector bore the brunt of Monday's selling as bank stocks tend to show increased sensitivity in the face of political or economic uncertainty. Morgan Stanley (MS 22.18, +0.12) was the weakest performer among the majors, and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF lost 1.0%. Notably, European financials saw wider losses than their U.S. counterparts. Barclays (BCS 17.92, +0.13) and Deutsche Bank (DB 42.11, +0.11) settled lower by 4.1% and 3.6%, respectively. 

Tuesday's session began with slim gains, but the early strength lacked conviction as uncertainty continued to surround Cyprus and the terms of its proposed bailout. The expectation of a failed parliamentary vote was confirmed during the afternoon when the Cypriot MPs voted down the deposit tax with 36 ‘No' votes and 19 abstentions. The energy sector was the biggest laggard with a decline in the price of crude contributing to the weakness. The energy component slid 1.8% to $92.46. Meanwhile, the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE 78.75, +0.62) settled lower by 1.1%. 

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.7% after spending the entire session in positive territory. The otherwise quiet session was highlighted by a policy statement from the Federal Reserve, which was largely in-line with expectations. With regards to economic conditions, the Committee observed a return to "Moderate economic growth following a pause late last year." Regarding price levels, "Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable." Industrial component FedEx (FDX 98.48, +1.98) endured a rough session and fell 6.9% after missing on the bottom line. The company also guided fourth quarter earnings below consensus due to a slowdown in global revenues. 

Thursday began in the red with tech stocks driving the early decline. The technology sector underperformed notably after disappointing earnings and cautious revenue guidance from Oracle contributed to selling in several other large cap names. While tech shares pressured the broader market from the opening bell, producers of basic materials declined steadily after France and Germany surprised the market with contractionary manufacturing and services PMI reports. The growth concerns regarding core eurozone economies weighed on the economically-sensitive sector and the SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF lost 1.7%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1877/1083. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1447/955.
Next Week In View


Jason's Commentaries

Whoa.. Was right for the day. Having a up Friday as the market cheers the earnings from Nike and Tiffany, which resulted the leadership in the Consumer Discretionary Sector in the market. On top of that, a good reason was due to the support found in the Dow. Whichever case, the market is also wary of the highs that It can be making. Cyprus issues remains an unsolved crisis in Europe. On Friday, Cyprus's officials came back empty handed from Russia in hopes with a natural gas deal, after the depositary tax was being rejected in the parliament. As I'm writing the DMA, the Cyprus government reached a deal with the ECB to proceed with the bailout deal of 10 Billion Euros, on the condition to downside the 2 largest Cyprus banks. Futures shot up after the deal was released this afternoon. I'm expecting more sideway consolidation to come as there are a number of FOMC issues coming out this week, and 2 weeks later, it's gonna be the earnings season.

Market Call: FLAT

Date: 25 Mar 2013