Wednesday 20 March 2013

19 Mar 2013 AMC


19 Mar 2013
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Stock Market Update
16:15 ET Dow +3.76 at 14455.82, Nasdaq -8.50 at 3229.09, S&P -3.76 at 1548.34 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended today's session on a mixed note. The Dow registered a slim gain of 3.76 points while S&P 500 shed 0.2%. 

Stocks began the day with slim gains, but the early strength lacked conviction as uncertainty continued to surround Cyprus and the terms of its proposed bailout. As the morning progressed, the S&P 500 slid to its lows amid multiple reports suggesting the country's parliament is likely to vote down the controversial "stability levy." 

The late morning selloff was notable as it coincided with strength in the U.S. dollar, the Treasury market, and German bunds. In addition, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.36, +1.00) ended at its highest level since March 4. 

Elsewhere, the Dollar Index climbed to its best level since August of last year, and ended just below the key 83.00 area. Meanwhile, a safe haven bid across the Treasury complex pushed the 10-yr yield down five basis points to 1.91%. Overseas, the German 10-yr yield declined seven basis points, and ended at 1.35%. 

The expectation of a failed vote was confirmed during the afternoon when the Cypriot parliament voted down the deposit tax with 36 ‘No' votes and 19 abstentions. At this point, it is unknown what the next step for Cyprus will be after its unprecedented rejection of bailout conditions. 

Following the vote, the European Central Bank said it will provide liquidity to Cyprus within the existing rules. 

As the Cypriot uncertainty weighed on the market, cyclical sectors underperformed while defensive groups ended in the lead. 

The energy sector was the biggest laggard with a decline in the price of crude contributing to the weakness. The energy component slid 1.8% to $92.46. Meanwhile, the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE 78.09, -0.87) settled lower by 1.1%. 

In addition to energy stocks, the financial space trailed behind the broader market. Major financials finished lower as banks tend to show most sensitivity when uncertainty strikes. However, Bank of America (BAC 12.71, +0.15) outperformed its peers after Meredith Whitney shared her bullish outlook on the bank. 

Also of note, the consumer discretionary group ended in the red amid weakness in retail stocks. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 69.35, -0.70) fell 1.0%. 

Although the discretionary sector endured broad weakness, homebuilders resisted the pressure and finished with modest gains after February housing starts were reported ahead of expectations. 

In February, housing starts increased 0.8% in February to 917,000 after falling 7.3% to 910,000 in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected housing starts to increase to 911,000. 

The recent volatility in housing starts is the result of normal fluctuations in the multi-family sector. Single-family construction, which tends to grow on a very stable path, increased slightly from 615,000 in January to 618,000 in February. Over the last three months, single-family starts have averaged 617,000. Multi-family starts increased from 295,000 in January to 299,000 in February. 

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be reported at 7:00 ET. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee will conclude its two day meeting with its interest rate decision and policy statement scheduled for a 14:00 ET release. The Fed's economic projections will also be released at 14:00 ET and Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference at 14:30 ET. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1270/1726. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1036/1421.







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Jason's Commentaries


Was on the call yesterday, the bulls did not came back for a few reasons, firstly, Cyprus was going through the vote last night for the depositor tax, secondly we're having a FOMC meeting these 2 days and the Fed Fund rate is going to gyrate the market like no one business. The market last night opened with a bullish bias but the bulls did not hold the highs. Last most of their gains by noon and we ended up flat. VIX went up higher again, hitting a 14.41 last night. However, that lackluster performance did not affect the Asia market much today. The Nikkei and Hang Seng closed higher by 5.21am ET today. Bonds were being pushed down last night, while 731 million shares were traded last night on the NYSE. The bears outpaced the bulls at approx 2:1. It was more of a down day than a up day. However, we can see some slight retracement at the end of the trading day, which can suggest profit taking ahead of the FOMC. Nonetheless, the Dow is on the 14450 support level. If the FOMC don't suck today, we're likely to see a up day. This is going to be a tough call.... Market will likely start with a bullish bias and then stay flat till the FOMC release at 2pm ET. The index futures were currently up at 33 points on the Dow futures at 5.25am ET. 




Market Call: FLAT
Date: 20 Mar 2013

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