1 Nov 2013 AMC - Dow led a very volatile Friday

1 Nov 2013 AMC - Dow led a very volatile Friday

Market Summary 

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

·         UK's FTSE: + 0.1%

·         Germany's DAX: -0.3%

·         France's CAC: -0.6%

·         Spain's IBEX: -0.7%

·         Portugal's PSI: -0.1%

·         Italy's MIB Index: -1.0%

·         Irish Ovrl Index: -0.3%

·         Greece ATHEX Composite: -0.9%

Before Market Opens 

S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.20.
The S&P 500 futures trade higher by 0.2%.

Markets across Asia ended mixed amid a mostly uneventful session. China's Shanghai Composite (+0.4%) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.2%) ticked higher following the better than expected Manufacturing PMI (51.4 actual versus 51.2 expected, 51.1 previous) and HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (50.9 actual versus 50.7 expected, 50.9 previous) reports. Elsewhere, India's Sensex (+0.2%) saw a record close for a third straight session. Japan's Nikkei (-0.9%) lagged as action settled at a one-week low. Inflation readings out overnight showed Indonesia's slip to 8.3% year-over-year (8.4% expected), South Korea's cool to 0.7% year-over-year (0.8% previous), and Thailand's rise to 1.5% year-over-year (1.4% previous). Indonesia's trade balance swung to a 0.66 billion deficit. 

·         In Japan, the Nikkei lost 0.9% as poor guidance weighed. Electronics maker Sony tumbled 11.1% while NTT Data shed 4.8% after both cut their estimates. 

·         Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.2% as casino names led the way. Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China both advanced 1.8% after a positive report on Macau gaming revenues.

·         In China, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% as financials booked solid gains. Ping An tacked on 2.0% while China Merchants Bank advanced 1.6%. 

Major European indices trade mostly lower with Italy's MIB (-0.3%) pacing the decline. The euro has continued showing weakness after disappointing unemployment and CPI data crossed the wires yesterday. The below-consensus CPI reading contributed to speculation that the European Central Bank could cut its key rate at next week's policy meeting. Since yesterday, the single currency has surrendered nearly 230 pips to the dollar. The pair currently trades near 1.3515. Economic data was limited to just two data points as Great Britain's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 56.0 from 56.3 (56.1 forecast) and Swiss SVME PMI fell to 54.2 from 55.3 (55.5 expected). 

·         Great Britain's FTSE outperforms other regional indices with a slim advance of 0.1%. Vodafone is the top performer, trading higher by 2.8% amid speculation AT&T could take over the British telecom carrier. Defense contractor Meggitt trades lower by 10.0% after cutting its revenue outlook. 

·         Germany's DAX is off 0.1% as producers of basic materials pace the decline. HeidelbergCement and Lanxess are lower by 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively. Volkswagen is the top performer, trading higher by 1.9%. 

·         In France, the CAC holds a loss of 0.3% as Renault weighs. The carmaker trades lower by 4.5%. On the upside, media and telecom names have displayed strength. Orange and Publicis Groupe are both up near 0.7%. 

·         Italy's MIB is lower by 0.3% as 34 of 40 components register losses. Fiat is lower by 2.5% and CNH Industrial trades down 3.0% after reporting disappointing results.

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-
The Dow closed up 70 (+0.45%) at 15616, the S&P 500 closed up 5 (+0.29%) at 1762, and the Nasdaq closed up 2 (+0.06%) at 3922. Action came on above average volume (NYSE 810 mln vs. avg. of 719; NASDAQ 1880 mln vs. avg. of 1703), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 1400/1683, NASDAQ 1043/1490) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 104/23, NASDAQ 93/53).

Relative Strength: 
Steel-SLX +1.51%, Metals and Mining-XME +1.26%, Clean Energy-PBW +1.09%, Broker-Dealers-IAI +1.06%, Transportation-IYT +1.03%, Hong Kong-EWH +0.86%, India-INP +0.75%, South Korea-EWY +0.7%, China 25 Index-FXI +0.69%, Russia-RSX +0.57%. 

Relative Weakness: 
Gold Miners-GDX -4.06%, Silver Miners-SIL -3.18%, Heating Oil-UHN -3.14%, Natural Gas-UNG -2.95%, Turkey-TUR -2.08%, Greece-GREK -2.06%, Copper Miners-COPX -1.8%, Middle East and Africa-GAF -1.71%, Indonesia-IDX -1.71%, Italy-EWI -1.40%.

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries 

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Mixed Week on Upbeat Note
The S&P 500 added 0.3% to end the week with a slim advance of 0.1%. Although the broader market ended little changed, small caps were under pressure throughout the session as the Russell 2000 lost 0.4%.

Notably, relative weakness among small caps was a recurring theme throughout the week, causing the Russell to lose 2.0% since Monday.

Outside of the continued underperformance of small caps, the session did not generate too much excitement. The S&P climbed at the open, but slid to lows during the first two hours as the broader market caught down to the Russell's weakness. The S&P was able to battle its way back to the opening high, but could not muster additional gains as energy (-0.3%) and materials (-0.2%) weighed.

The energy sector trailed the broader market throughout the day as Dow component Chevron (CVX 118.01, -1.95) weighed after missing bottom-line estimates by $0.14. Crude oil also pressured the sector, falling 1.8% to $94.61 per barrel.

Elsewhere, materials underperformed as miners displayed broad weakness. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 24.08, -1.02) tumbled 4.1% while gold futures slid 0.8% to $1313.10 per troy ounce.

On the upside, the relative strength of industrials (+0.8%) and health care (+0.7%) helped the S&P post a modest advance.

Transports paced the gains among industrials as the Dow Jones Transportation Average rallied 1.0%. Meanwhile, the health care sector outperformed with some help from biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 206.06, +0.73) added 0.4%.

Treasuries sold off throughout the session, sending the 10-yr yield higher by six basis points to 2.62%.

Trading volume was a bit above average as just under 810 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Although equities endured a relatively quiet session, the same could not be said for the foreign exchange market. The greenback rallied throughout the day, gaining significant strength against the euro and the pound. The Index ended near its high with an advance of 0.7% at 80.72.

The euro was under pressure since yesterday amid rumblings of an ECB rate cut by year-end and continued chatter of negative interest rates. Heavy selling dropped the pair roughly 300 pips off its October highs to 1.3490 against the dollar.

Today's economic data was limited to the October ISM Manufacturing Index, which increased to 56.4 in from 56.2 (Briefing.com consensus 55.0). The common adage throughout the government shutdown was that the manufacturing sector would suffer from lost orders and demand. If the ISM index is an accurate gauge of manufacturing activity in October, then the expected weakness never occurred.

New orders actually strengthened in October. The related index increased to 60.6 in October from 60.5. Meanwhile, order backlogs ended a contraction period and increased to 51.5 from 49.5.

Monday's economic data will be limited to August and September factory orders, which will be released through a single report at 10:00 ET. 

·         Nasdaq +29.9% YTD

·         Russell 2000 +29.0% YTD

·         S&P 500 +23.5% YTD

·         DJIA +19.2% YTD

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Natural Gas Books 7.9% Loss for the Week; Crude Oil Drops Below $95.00
A stronger dollar index put pressure on the commodities space today. The move came on better-than-anticipated October ISM Manufacturing Index data, which increased to 56.4 from 56.2 (Briefing.com consensus called for 55.0).

·         Dec crude oil extended losses for a fourth consecutive session, falling below the $95.00 per barrel level for the first time since late June. The energy component pulled back from its session high of $95.75 per barrel set at pit trade open and trended lower as the session progressed. It settled 1.8% lower at $94.61 per barrel, just above its session low of $94.54 per barrel. The drop brought losses for the week to 3.3%.

·         Dec natural gas also traded in the red. It chopped around in a narrow four cent range and settled 2.0% lower at its session low of $3.51 per MMBtu, booking a 7.9% loss for the week.

·         Dec gold extended yesterday's losses, dipping as low as $1305.60 per ounce. Unable to gain momentum, it settled with a 0.8% loss at $1313.10 per ounce, declining by 2.9% over the week. 

·         Dec silver brushed a session high of $21.95 per ounce in afternoon pit trade after trading as low as $21.77 per ounce. However, it was unable to hold on to the gains and settled just below the unchanged line at $21.85 per ounce, booking a 3.0% loss for the week.

NYMEX Energy Closing Prices

·         Dec crude oil fell $1.76 to $94.61/barrel

o    Crude oil extended losses for a fourth consecutive session, falling below the $95.00 level for the first time since late June. Weakness came on a strong dollar index following better-than-anticipated October ISM Manufacturing Index data. The energy component pulled back from its session high of $95.75 set at pit trade open and trended lower as the session progressed. It settled just above its session low of $94.54, booking a loss of 1.8%. Today's drop brought losses for the week to 3.3%. 

·         Dec natural gas fell 7 cents to $3.51/MMBtu 

o    Natural gas also traded in the red today. It chopped around in a narrow four cent range and settled 2.0% lower at its session low, booking a 7.9% loss for the week. 

·         Dec heating oil fell 8 cents to $2.88/gallon 

·         Dec RBOB gasoline fell 4 cents to $2.55/gallon

CBOT Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices

·         Dec corn fell 1 cent to $4.27/bushel

·         Dec wheat settled unchanged at $6.68/bushel

·         Jan soybeans fell 14 cents to $12.52/bushel

·         Dec ethanol fell 1 cent to $1.65/gallon

·         Jan sugar (#16 (U.S.)) fell 0.06 of a penny to 21.57 cents/lbs

COMEX Metals Closing Prices

  Dec gold fell $10.40 to $1313.10/ounce 

·         Gold extended yesterday's losses as a stronger dollar index put pressure on the commodities space. The move came on better-than-anticipated October ISM Manufacturing Index data, which increased to 56.4 from 56.2 (Briefing.com consensus 55.0). The yellow metal dipped as low as $1305.60 and eventually settled with a 0.8% loss. Today's decline brought losses for the week to 2.9%. 

  Dec silver fell $0.01 to $21.85/ounce 

·         Silver brushed a session high of $21.95 in afternoon pit trade after trading as low as $21.77. However, it was unable to hold on to the gains and settled a penny below the unchanged line, booking a 3.0% loss for the week. 

  Dec copper settled unchanged at $3.30/lbs

 

Treasuries

Treasuries See Weekly Losses: 10-yr: -19/32..2.625%..USD/JPY: 98.77..EUR/USD: 1.3486

The Week in Review

·         Treasuries were under pressure this week as Wednesday's FOMC rate decision sparked a fresh round of selling. The FOMC held its asset purchase program at $85 bln per month while insisting "economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace." The Statement was not as dovish as some had anticipated, igniting a wave of selling that persisted throughout the remainder of the week.

·         This week's economic data provided mixed signals. 

·         Chicago PMI (65.9 actual v. 55.0 expected), ISM Index (56.4 actual v. 55.0 expected), and retail sales ex-auto (0.4% actual v. 0.2% expected) provided the notable beats while pending home sales (-5.6% actual v. -1.3% expected) and ADP Employment Change (130K actual v. 145K previous) highlighted the disappointments. 

·         The front of the curve ended little changed with the 2y and 3y ending the week where they began @ 0.321% and 0.596%, respectively. 

·         Selling had the biggest impact on yields in the belly of the curve as the 7y and 10y both added roughly 10bps over the course of the week to finish @ 2.029% and 2.620%, respectively. Click here to see an intraweek yields chart.

·         The benchmark yield climbed to a two-week high and settled on its 100 dma. The 2.670% area is now in focus as many expect the October 16/17 gap to be closed over the coming days. Resistance in the 2.700% area is helped by the 50 dma. 

·         Slight outperformance could be seen at the long end as moderate selling produced a +8bp move on the week. Friday's selling ran the 30y back above its 100 dma with trade closing at 3.696%. 

·         This week's selling swung the yield curve steeper as the 2-10-yr spread widened to 230.5 bps. 

·         Auctions: Monday's solid $32 bln 2y note auction drew 0.323% (0.328% when issued) and a 3.32x bid/cover (12-auction average 3.43x) as both indirect (29.0%) and direct (30.9%) bidders saw stronger than usual takedowns, leaving primary dealers with just 40.1% of the supply. Tuesday's in-line $35 bln 5y note auction drew 1.300% (when issued 1.302%) and a 2.65x bid/cover (12-auction average 2.70x) as a solid indirect bid (45.9%) helped offset a weak direct bid (12.2%). Primary dealers ended up with 41.9% of the supply. Wednesday's solid $29 bln 7y note auction drew 1.870% and a 2.66x bid/cover as both indirect (42.0%) and direct (23.9%) bids saw stronger than usual takedowns. Primary dealers were left with 34.1% of the supply. 

·         Monday's Data: August and September factory orders (10)

·         Fed Speak: Boston's Rosengren will be at University of Massachusetts at Boston giving his economic outlook (16:25). 

On other news.... 








Currencies 

Dollar Retakes the 50 DMA: 10-yr: -19/32..2.619%..USD/JPY: 98.77..EUR/USD: 1.3493
The Dollar Index holds on session highs near 80.75 as action remains on track to post a fifth straight day of gains. Today's bid has run the Index above its 50 dma for the first time since early September, and has trade on track to post its best close in one and a half months. Click here to see an intraday yields chart.

·         EURUSD is -95 pips at 1.3495 as heavy selling persists for a second session. The single currency has been under significant pressure as of late as rumblings of an ECB rate cut by year-end and continued chatter of negative interest rates weighs. Selling has dropped the pair roughly 300 pips off its October highs, and has action testing support aided by the 50 dma (1.3485). Eurozone data includes Italian and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. 

·         GBPUSD is -120 pips at 1.5920 as trade pushes lower for the fifth time in six sessions. The selling comes after Manufacturing PMI was the latest data point to miss forecasts, and has pushed trade below its 50 dma for the first time since the beginning of August. A breakdown of support in the area sets up a likely move into the 1.5650 region. British data is limited to Construction PMI. 

·         USDCHF is +60 pips at .9125 as action tests the October highs. Today's advance has the pair higher for a fifth day in a row, and has trade probing the 50 dma (.9135). 

·         USDJPY is +40 pips at 98.75 as action moves back to the top of the 97.00/99.00 range that has been in place over the past month. Today's bid has the pair probing its 50 and 100 dma while providing a test of trendline resistance off the May highs. 

·         AUDUSD is -30 pips at .9430 as sellers remain in control for an eighth session. The hard currency has been under pressure since nicking its 200 dma (.9710) on October 23 as trade settles into support in the area. The 50 dma (.9360) will look to provide additional help just below current levels. Australian data is heavy as retail sales, ANZ Job Advertisements, and Home Price Index are scheduled to be released Sunday night. China's Non-Manufacturing PMI is due out Saturday evening. 

·         USDCAD is flat at 1.0345 as action holds in the middle of the day's range. The pair has been virtually ignored throughout the U.S. session with most of the action taking place in a 25 pip rage. The 1.0400 is home to important near-term support.

Weekly Analysis
Week 38



Technical Updates



 
 
Briefing's Commentaries

Week in Review: S&P 500 Holds Ground While Russell Lags 

On Monday, the S&P 500 punctuated an uneventful session with a slim advance of 0.1%. Stocks alternated between gains and losses through the first two hours of action before the S&P climbed to a fresh record high of 1764.99. Final-hour selling cut the S&P's gain in half, but the index still finished ahead of the Dow (unch) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (-0.1%), which was challenged by its flat line throughout the session. The day featured just a handful of notable reports. Health care components caught the eye of some participants with Biogen (BIIB 243.10, -1.09) reporting solid results and Merck (MRK 45.23, +0.14) beating bottom-line estimates on below-consensus revenue. Although Merck weighed, the broader health care sector (+0.3%) drew strength from the 6.7% gain in Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 52.48, -0.04) after the company announced positive clinical trial data.

The S&P 500 registered its fourth consecutive advance on Tuesday, climbing 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) outperformed the benchmark index while the Nasdaq (+0.3%) lagged after starting the session in-line with the S&P. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a modest advance after the exchange experienced an intraday data dissemination issue that prevented index quotes from being sent out for nearly an hour. However, the issue was isolated to the index while individual components traded normally. One of the components that contributed to the Nasdaq's underperformance was Apple (AAPL 520.03, -2.67). The largest tech stock lost 2.5% after its below-consensus gross margin guidance overshadowed its earnings beat on above-consensus revenue.

Wednesday saw the S&P 500 register its first decline in five sessions (-0.5%). Small caps faced additional selling pressure as the Russell 2000 fell 1.4%. Stocks held modest losses into the afternoon, but slid to fresh lows after the Federal Reserve released its latest policy directive, which was little changed from prior statements. Most notably, the directive acknowledged the recent slowdown in the housing sector and noted that fiscal policy is presenting a headwind to growth. In addition, the Committee dropped the reference to "tightening financial conditions" that appeared in the September statement. While the statement did not throw the market any taper-related curveballs, it may have been perceived to be somewhat hawkish as the Committee did not alter its outlook to account for the impact from the partial government shutdown. All ten sectors settled in the red, but their losses were limited to less than 0.8%. Defensive sectors led to the downside, and consumer staples (-0.8%) ended at the bottom of the leaderboard.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 ended with a modest loss of 0.4%, trimming its October gain to 4.5%. Small caps displayed notable weakness during morning trade, but the Russell 2000 ended not far behind the S&P with a loss of 0.5%. Equity indices spent most of the session near their respective flat lines even after more than 250 companies reported their quarterly results since Wednesday's close. Trading volume was subdued until the last 30 minutes of action when a surge in trading activity sent equity indices to lows while pushing the final NYSE volume tally over 900 million shares.




Next Week In View




Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: ISM Index higher than expected; Bulard says cumulative progress in labor market outcomes since September 2012 provides the most powerful part of the case for tapering
Economic Data Summary:

·         October ISM Index 56.4 vs Briefing.com consensus of 55.0; September was 56.2

o     If the ISM index is an accurate gauge of manufacturing activity in October, then the expected weakness never occurred. New orders actually strengthened in October. The related index increased to 60.6 in October from 60.5. Meanwhile, order backlogs ended a contraction period and increased to 51.5 from 49.5. The production index softened, dropping from 60.8 in October from 62.6 in September.

Fed/Treasury Events Summary:

·         Mr. Bullard stated "Does cumulative progress in labor market outcomes since September 2012 matter for QE tapering? Yes, and this provides the most powerful part of the case for tapering.When the Committee started the QE program in September 2012, the stated goal was substantial improvement in labor market outcomes.Two key labor market indicators have shown clear improvement over the last year: Unemployment and nonfarm payroll employment."

Upcoming Economic Data:

·         August Factory Orders due out Monday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.3%; July was -2.4%)

·         September Factory Orders due out Monday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of ; August was )

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:

·         Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota (voting FOMC member, typically dovish) to speak today at 11:15

·         Richmond Fed Jeffrey Lacker (not a voting FOMC member, typically hawkish) to speak today at 12:00

·         Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (voting FOMC member) to speak Monday at 16:25

Other International Events of Interest

·         China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 from 51.1 (51.2 expected) while the HSBC Manufacturing PMI held steady at 50.9 (50.7 forecast). 

Jason's Commentaries

What a volatile Friday... The market swung up and down and eventually ended flat. The market started with a slight bullish bias and quickly reversed at 10am ET and sold off more than 80 points on the Dow. The market then found a bottom at 12pm ET and started break upwards after 1315pm. Volumes were standing at 786.8m shares traded on the NYSE. It was a flat to upside trading session in the market. Dow was surprisingly to be the leader of the session and Nasdaq was the laggard. Despite some drag by the Chevron, after missing its bottomline estimates, Dow was being pulled up by Visa, GE, JP MOrgan, Boeing and Pfizer. Each gaining more than 1%. Implied Volatility remains low. On the technical side, the S&P500 seemed to find a support on the trend while the Dow appeared to find some resistance after hitting the all time high. while Nasdaq remained in a consolidation zone at its top. I reckon we're likely to be in a consolidation period until Friday when the employment report will be released. Numbers were expected to be bad due to the shutdown.

Market Call: FLAT

Date: 4 Nov 2013