13 Sep 2013 AMC

13 Sep 2013 AMC

Market Summary 

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

·         UK's FTSE: -0.1%

·         Germany's DAX: + 0.2%

·         France's CAC: + 0.2%

·         Spain's IBEX: + 0.2%

·         Portugal's PSI: -0.3%

·         Italy's MIB Index: + 0.1%

·         Irish Ovrl Index: -0.4%

·         Greece ATHEX Composite: -0.6%

 

S&P futures vs fair value: +4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00.
The S&P 500 futures trade flat.

Most Asian bourses ended with modest losses but Japan's Nikkei outperformed with a slim gain of 0.1% after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet office upgraded its economic assessment for the seventh time this year. Economic data was limited as Japan's industrial production rose 3.4% month-over-month (3.2% forecast, 3.2% prior) while capacity utilization increased 3.7% (-2.3% previous). Elsewhere, New Zealand's Business NZ PMI ticked down to 57.5 from 59.5 and FPI ticked down 0.5% month-over-month (0.5% prior). Also of note, Singaporean unemployment rate held steady at 2.1% and retail sales fell 7.8% year-over-year (-1.5% expected, -4.0% previous).

·         Japan's Nikkei added 0.1% as industrials outperformed. Amada and OKUMA gained 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively. Exporters lagged as Konica Minolta, Mitsubishi Motors, and Sharp lost between 2.1% and 4.4%. 

·         In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.2% as energy names lagged. China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy both lost near 3.0%. Consumer names outperformed as China Resources Enterprise and Tingyi Cayman Islands Holdings gained 1.9% and 1.2%, respectively. 

·         China's Shanghai Composite settled lower by 0.9% with shipping names leading to the downside. China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Shipping Container Lines both tumbled near 8.5% apiece. 

Major European indices trade mixed as the relatively quiet session continues. In news of note, The Bank of Spain reported that its second quarter debt to GDP has climbed to a record level of 92.2%. Elsewhere, the German state of Bavaria will hold its election over the weekend ahead of the Federal vote scheduled for September 22. Economic data was limited as the Eurozone employment change came in at -0.1% (-0.2% expected, -0.4% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.0% (-0.9% forecast, -1.0% previous). Also of note, Swiss PPI ticked up 0.2% month-over-month, as expected (0.0% prior). 

·         Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.3% as miners lag. Anglo American, Antofagasta, BHP Billiton, and Glencore Xstrata are all down between 1.3% and 3.6%. Consumer names have displayed relative strength as Reckitt Benckiser Group and Tate & Lyle trade higher by 2.6% and 1.9%, respectively. 

·         France's CAC is off 0.1%. Financials trade broadly lower with BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale down between 1.2% and 1.6%. Manufacturer of electrical equipment Legrand is the top performer as it holds a gain of 2.3%. 

·         In Germany, the DAX is higher by 0.1%. Fresenius SE leads the way with a gain of 4.8% after the company agreed to purchase 43 hospitals from Rhoen-Klinikum for EUR3.07 billion. On the downside, software publisher SAP and apparel manufacturer Adidas are both down near 1.0%.

 

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-
The Dow closed up 75 (+0.49%) at 15376, the S&P 500 closed up 5 (+0.27%) at 1688, and the Nasdaq closed up 6 (+0.17%) at 3722. Action came on below average volume (NYSE 569 mln vs. avg. of 667; NASDAQ 1422 mln vs. avg. of 1533), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1863/1175, NASDAQ 1497/977) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 84/59, NASDAQ 97/16). 

Relative Strength: 
Indonesia-IDX +2.69%, Thailand-THD +1.81%, Silver-SLV +1.71%, India-INP +1.59%, Junior Gold Miners-GDXJ +1.40%, Clean Energy-PBW +1.20%, Mexico-EWW +1.14%, South Africa-EZA +1.04%, Agribusiness-MOO +0.96%, Consumer Staples-XLP +0.82%.

Relative Weakness: 
Coal-KOL -1.85%, Volatility-VXX -1.50%, Grains-JJG -1.44%, MLP Index-AMJ -1.36%, Chile-ECH -1.03%, Corn-CORN -0.96%, Peru-EPU -0.50%, Turkey-TUR -0.45%, Sweden-EWD -0.38%, Austria-EWO -0.32%.

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Commentaries 

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Solid Week on Upbeat Note
The S&P 500 added 0.3% to extend its weekly gain to 2.0%. Today's session was very quiet as participants displayed tepid demand for equities ahead of next week's highly-anticipated FOMC meeting where a tapering announcement may occur. 

Excluding a brief dip during the opening hour, the major averages were confined to narrow ranges. The early weakness took place after it was reported that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest reading since April (76.8) in the preliminary September reading. That was down from 82.1 in August and well below the consensus expectation of a drop to only 82.0. Typically, consumer sentiment follows trends in employment, equity prices, oil prices, and media reports. 

Since the end of August, the Syria debate has caused oil prices to increase; and the most recent August employment gains were much weaker than expected. Equity prices, however, have been moving higher. 

Despite the temporary slide into negative territory, the key indices were able to reclaim and hold their early highs into the close. 

The Nasdaq (+0.2%) trailed behind the other indices as major tech names lagged. Apple (AAPL 464.90, -7.79), Google (GOOG 889.07, -4.00), and Oracle (ORCL 32.46, -0.33) lost between 0.5% and 1.7%. Intel (INTC 23.44, +0.81) outperformed, gaining 3.6% with a Jefferies upgrade to ‘Buy' from ‘Hold' contributing to the strength. 

Other cyclical sectors ended mixed. Energy (+0.1%), financials (+0.2%), and industrials (+0.2%) lagged; discretionary shares (+0.3%) ended in-line; and materials (+0.7%) outperformed. 

In the materials sector, fertilizer names like Mosaic (MOS 45.99, +1.61) and Potash (POT 32.49, +0.71) spiked to highs after reports indicated Russian investor Vladimir Kogan purchased Suleiman Kerimov's stake in Uralkali for $3.7 billion. 

Similar to cyclical sectors, defensive groups were mixed. Telecom services (+0.2%) lagged while consumer staples (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.8%), outperformed. For its part, the health care sector (+0.3%) ended in-line with the S&P. 

Like other asset classes, Treasuries were very quiet. The benchmark 10-yr note added five ticks and its yield slipped two basis points to 2.89%. 

Trading volume was well below average as only 569 million shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE. 

As mentioned earlier, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will bring the FOMC policy meeting where many expect the Fed to announce a reduction in the size of its asset purchases. 

The taper talk began after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned, during his June 19 press conference, that barring a downturn in the economy, the Fed could scale back the size of its purchases later in the year. Following the press conference, participants began looking to the September meeting as a possible start date for tapering. 

Stocks slumped in the immediate reaction, sending the S&P lower by nearly 5.0% over the course of four days. The market has been quite resilient since then and the S&P notched fresh all-time highs on August 2. Although the S&P 500 has slipped from its record levels, it remains 2.2% above its level at the start of the June 19 session and only 1.3% below its all-time best. 

Looking back at today's economic data, the retail sales and PPI reports conveyed a familiar message of modest growth and low inflation. August retail sales came in below expectations (0.2% v. 0.4% Briefing.com consensus), but the July reading was revised higher to reflect an increase of 0.4% (0.2% prior). 

Separately, total PPI jumped 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) while core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%). 

Total business inventories rose 0.4% in July after increasing an upwardly revised 0.1% (from 0.0%) in June. The Briefing.com consensus expected business inventories to increase 0.3%. Manufacturer (0.2%) and merchant wholesaler (0.1%) inventories were known prior to the release. The only new information was that retailer inventories increased 0.8% in July after increasing 0.1% in June. 

On Monday, the September Empire Manufacturing survey will be released at 8:30 ET while August industrial production and capacity utilization will be reported at 9:15 ET. 

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Crude Oil Falls 2.1% On The Week, Gold Falls 5.6%

·         Oct crude oil chopped around in negative territory today on easing concerns over the situation in Syria. The U.S. and Russia held talks regarding Syria surrendering its chemical weapons. The energy component dipped to a session low of $107.23 per barrel in early morning floor trade but rallied ahead of the close to a session high of $108.33 per barrel. It settled 0.4% lower at $108.21 per barrel, booking a 2.1% loss for the week

·         Oct natural gas, on the other hand, recovered into positive territory after trading as low as $3.60 per MMBtu in morning pit action. It settled 1.1% higher at $3.68 per MMBtu, bringing gains for the week to 4.2%. Precious metals struggled in the red as speculation rose that the Federal Reserve will cut stimulus measures next week

·         Dec gold pulled back from its session high of $1323.50 per ounce and brushed a session low of $1307.70 per ounce. It settled 1.6% lower at $1308.80 per ounce, booking a 5.6% loss for the week.

·         Dec silver touched a session low of $21.64 per ounce and eventually settled 2.0% lower at $21.72 per ounce. Today's drop brought losses for the week to 9.1%.

CBOT Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices

·         Dec corn fell 7 cents to $4.59/bushel 

·         Dec wheat fell 12 cents to $6.41/bushel 

·         Nov soybeans fell 16 cents to $13.82/bushel 

·         Oct ethanol fell 7 cents to $1.78/gallon 

·         Nov sugar (#16 (U.S.)) settled unchanged at 21.10 cents/lbs

COMEX Metals Closing Prices

·         Dec gold fell $21.90 to $1308.80/ounce 

o    Gold traded lower today as speculation rose that the Federal Reserve will cut stimulus measures next week. The yellow metal pulled back from its session high of $1323.50 and traded lower into negative territory. It brushed a session low of $1307.70 moments before settling 1.6% lower. Today's decline brought losses for the week to 5.6%. 

·         Dec silver fell $0.45 to $21.72/ounce 

o    Silver also struggled in negative territory today. It brushed a session low of $21.64 and eventually settled 2.0% lower, booking a 9.1% loss for the week. 

·         Dec copper fell 1 cent to $3.20/lbs

NYMEX Energy Closing Prices

·         Oct crude oil fell $0.44 to $108.21/barrel 

o    Crude oil spent its entire session in negative territory as concerns eased over the situation in Syria. The U.S. and Russia held talks on Syria surrendering its chemical weapons. The energy component slipped to a session low of $107.23 in early morning pit action but rallied to a session high of $108.33 as it headed into the close. It settled 0.4% lower, booking a 2.1% loss for the week. 

·         Oct natural gas rose 4 cents to $3.68/MMBtu 

o    Natural gas recovered into positive territory after touching a session low of $3.60 in morning floor trade. It advanced to a session high of $3.69 and settled just below that level, booking a 1.1% gain. Today's climb brought gains for the week to 4.2%. 

·         Oct heating oil fell 1 cent to $3.11/gallon 

·         Oct RBOB gasoline rose 1 cent to $2.77/gallon

Treasuries

Treasuries Post Weekly Gain: 10-yr: +06/32..2.891%..USD/JPY: 99.23..EUR/USD: 1.3302
Treasuries saw modest gains this week as traders took a cautious tone ahead of next week's FOMC meeting as many believe it will mark the beginning of the end of the Fed's QE program. The baseline scenario is that the Fed will announce a tapering of its asset purchase program somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-12 bln to its Treasury purchases while keeping its MBS buying unchanged. Data was light with the most meaningful data crossing late in the week. Thursday's initial claims number (292K) posted its first sub-300K print since May 2007, but a labor department official suggested the impressive reading was due to ‘faulty' reporting by some states. On Friday, retail sales (0.2% actual v. 0.4% expected) and Michigan Sentiment (76.8 actual v. 82.0 expected) both fell short of estimates. 

This week's buying had the biggest impact on the belly of the curve as yields there pushed lower by as much as 6 bps. Traders continue to keep a watchful eye on the 5- and 10-yr yields as they flirt with respective support in the 1.700% and 2.900% areas. The wings of the curve saw yields slip slightly as the 2-yr dipped 1 bp to 0.439% while the 30-yr shed 3 bps to end the week at 3.847%. Curve flattening took hold with the 2-10-yr spread narrowing to 246.5 bps. This week was unkind to precious metals as gold tumbled $69 to $1320 and silver sank $1.60 to near $22.20. Monday's data includes Empire Manufacturing (8:30), industrial production, and capacity utilization (10)
On other news.... 

GlaxoSmithKline: FDA grants GSK and Genmab's Arzerra (ofatumumab) Breakthrough Therapy Designation for previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia(51.41 +0.19)
Genmab A/S and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced that the FDA has granted Breakthrough Therapy designation for Arzerra (ofatumumab) in combination with chlorambucil for the treatment of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) who have not received prior treatment and are inappropriate for fludarabine-based therapy. Ofatumumab is not approved or licensed anywhere in the world for use in this treatment setting. Breakthrough Therapy designation is the newest of the FDA's programs aimed at accelerating the development and review times of drugs for serious or life-threatening conditions. CLL is the most common form of leukemia in adults. Based on estimates by the American Cancer Society, CLL will account for more than 15,680 new cases and more than 4,580 deaths in the United States of America alone in 2013. At present, no curative chemotherapy is available.

Economic Summary: Retail Sales miss expectations; August core PPI flat; Michigan Sentiment also misses expectations;
Economic Data Summary:

·         August Retail Sales 0.2% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.4%; July was 0.2%

·         August Retail Sales Ex Auto 0.1% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.3%; July was 0.5%

o    We expected more growth considering the phenomenal August motor vehicle report and the relatively strong gain in aggregate wages. Some of the weakness may be due to the upward revisions that showed stronger-than-originally reported gains in July. After taking account of these revisions, it was simply a middling report showing nothing bad but at the same time nothing really good either. In all, the savings rate likely remained near where it was in July and spending growth remains on a soft trend. 

·         August PPI 0.3% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; July was 0.0%

·         August Core PPI 0.0% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.1%; July was 0.1%

o     Energy prices rose 0.8% in August, which came entirely from a 2.6% increase in gasoline prices. Food costs rose 0.6% in August after holding steady in July. A 26.9% increase in fresh and dry vegetables prices, which tend to be fairly volatile, was the cause behind the increase in food prices. Core PPI levels were flat in August after increasing 0.1% in July. The last time core prices failed to increase was in October 2012, when price growth was also flat. 

·         September Michigan Sentiment 76.8 vs Briefing.com consensus of 82.0; August was 82.1

o    Typically, consumer sentiment follows trends in employment, equity prices, oil prices, and media reports. Since the end of August, the Syria debate has caused oil prices to increase; and the most recent August employment gains were much weaker than expected. Equity prices, however, have been moving higher. The Current Conditions Index fell to 91.8 in September from 95.2 in August. The Expectations Index dropped to 67.2 from 73.7. That was the weakest reading since January 2013. Fortunately, sentiment indicators have little correlation with consumption growth.

·         July Business Inventories 0.4% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.3%; June was 0.0%

o     The only new information was that retailer inventories increased 0.8% in July after increasing 0.1% in June. The increase in retailer inventories was likely planned as opposed to consumers leaving more goods than expected on store shelves. Retailer sales rose a solid 0.4% in July. Total business sales were up 0.6% in July after increasing 0.2% in June. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.28 from 1.29.

Upcoming Economic Data:

·         September Empire Manufacturing due out Monday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of ; August was 8.6)

·         August Industrial Production due out Monday at 9:15 (Briefing.com consensus of ; July was 0.0%)

·         August Capacity Utilization due out Monday at 9:15 (Briefing.com consensus of ; July was 77.6)

Other International Events of Interest

·         Japan's industrial production rose 3.4% month-over-month (3.2% forecast, 3.2% prior) while capacity utilization increased 3.7% (-2.3% previous). 

·         Eurozone employment change came in at -0.1% (-0.2% expected, -0.4% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.0% (-0.9% forecast, -1.0% previous). 

Currencies 

Dollar Holds Steady: 10-yr: +04/32..2.898%..USD/JPY: 99.25..EUR/USD: 1.3300
The Dollar Index has erased its early gains with action now holding little changed near 81.45. The small losses have the Index on track for a sixth straight decline as trade continues to test support in the area. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.

·         EURUSD is flat at 1.3300 as traders look ahead to a weekend full of meetings between leaders and finance ministers from the region. As usual, expectations are for nothing of substance to be produced. Trade has stalled at 1.3325 resistance in each of the past three days, causing some to look towards 1.3200. Eurozone data is limited to CPI. 

·         GBPUSD is +75 pips at 1.5880 as trade remains on track to close at its best level since late-January. Today's bid has sterling higher for the ninth time in the past eleven sessions, during which it has managed to tack on almost 400 pips. Zooming out to the beginning of the July, sterling is up more than 1000 pips. 

·         USDCHF is -15 pips at .9285 as trade slides for the fifth time in six days. Bulls are hoping the .9275 level holds, otherwise a retest of important .9200 support looks likely. 

·         USDJPY is -25 pips at 99.25 as sellers remain in control for a third session. Current levels are being watched closely as support in the area is helped by both the 50- and 100-day moving averages. Japanese banks are closed on Monday for Respect-for-the-Aged Day. 

·         AUDUSD is -15 pips at .9245 amid a rather uneventful day for the pair. Support in the .9200 area will be tracked over the coming days as trade consolidates at two and a half-month highs. 

·         USDCAD is +10 pips at 1.0335 as trade ticks higher for a second session. Today's small gain has the pair probing its 100-day moving average as bulls step in to defend support. Canada's foreign securities purchases will cross the wires Monday.

Weekly Analysis
Week 37



Technical Updates








 Briefing's Commentaries

Week in Review: Stocks Climb Ahead of FOMC Meeting 

The S&P 500 began the week with a Monday gain of 1.0% as trade managed to regain its 50-day moving average (1666/1667) for the first time in two weeks. Equities climbed from the open, bolstered by reassuring economic reports out of China and Japan, headlines suggesting a strike against Syria could possibly be avoided, and the notion that the relatively disappointing employment report on Friday has lowered the probability of a big tapering announcement at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. Growth-sensitive sectors paced the advance with materials ending in the lead. The sector rose 1.5% as steelmakers rallied in reaction to the data from Asia. The Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 45.15, -0.15) jumped 2.8%. Fertilizer names also registered solid gains after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the ongoing potash dispute with Belarus needs to be resolved. Mosaic ended higher by 5.1%. 

Tuesday's session saw the S&P 500 climb 0.7% with all ten sectors settling in positive territory. Stocks registered the bulk of their gains during the opening hour after more upbeat economic data from China combined with Syria's agreement to put its chemical weapons under international control lured participants into equities. Goldman Sachs (GS 164.00, +0.65), Nike (NKE 67.91, -0.17) and Visa (V 189.00, +3.94) posted gains after it was announced the trio will enter the Dow Jones Industrial Average following next Friday's close. The trio will replace Alcoa (AA 8.08, -0.08), Bank of America (BAC 14.49, +0.01), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 22.07, +0.11) in the price-weighted index. 

The key indices ended Wednesday in mixed fashion as the Nasdaq shed 0.1% while the S&P 500 added 0.3% to register its seventh consecutive advance. The tech sector was pressured by Apple, which sank 5.4% after the company's overnight product refresh event in China did not reveal a deal with China Mobile (CHL 56.15, +0.59) as many investors had expected. The underperformance of Apple kept the Nasdaq and the technology sector (-0.5%) in the red throughout the day while the S&P was able to shake off the opening weakness. 

On Thursday, the S&P 500 registered its first September decline, shedding 0.3% as nine of ten sectors ended in the red. Stocks slipped as several of top September performers fell victim to some profit-taking. Financials, industrials, and materials led to the downside with losses ranging between 0.5% and 1.0%. The financial sector was pressured by the underperformance of most large banks as investors attempted to gauge the impact of a slowdown in the mortgage industry after US Bank (USB 37.14, +0.27) announced that its mortgage revenue fell roughly 20% in the third quarter.

Next Week In View

Events and conferences of interest: Conference season continues next week but FOMC will highlight events
Events and conferences of interest for next week, Sep 16th-20th, are listed below. For a complete list of next week's events, please see the events calendar.

Monday

·         BMO Capital Markets North American Real Estate Conference

o    Scheduled to appear: SSS, MNR, UMH, HTA, CXW, LTC, BRE, KIM, NHI, RPAI, CUBE, ACAD, ARCP, AIV, WPC, HCN, EGP, DCT, HPP, IRC, ESS

·         Morgan Stanley Inaugural Global Natural Resources Conference

o    Scheduled to appear: SLW, CA:FM, GGB, CA:CS, TKPPY.PK

·         Morgan Stanley Industrials and Autos Conference

o    Scheduled to appear: : ST, NES, BA, DHR, HUB.A, URS, IRBT, ROK, JOY, TYC, HAR, SPW, HON, DLPH, UTX, ETN, URI, KSU, PRLB, RBC, UTIW, WAIR, PRIM, MMM, SWK, GE, MNTX

Tuesday

·         Service Delivery Platforms Global Summit

o    Scheduled to appear: T, DTEGY.PK, ERIC, INTC, ORCL, ORCL, ORAN, ORAN, TKC

·         Credit Suisse Small Cap/Mid Cap Conference

o    Scheduled to appear: ALOG, ANN, AREX, BGS, OZRK, BKU, BBG, BRLI, BYD, BGG, BCEI, PLT, CA:TCM, TWI, DDD, AIR, CAB, CALM, CSIQ, CSE, OSIS, EPAY, FIX, CRK, CEB, DF, DK, DLLR, DRIV, DW, DSW, DXPE, ELON, ELGX, NPO, ENTR, FEIC, EXXI, ENOC, FET, GPRE, GWAY, GPI, GLF, GPOR, HRG, HCSG, HEI, HIBB,HSNI, IIVI, GEOS, GEVO, IPCM, IRBT, KOG, LANC, MTZ, MFRM, MDSO, VIVO, MSCC, MIDD, MSA, NSM, NTCT, NXST, OIS, JKS, JBT, KEG, ORIT, ORA, PDLI, PAG, PMC, SOL, REX, RTEC, SGEN, LEDS, SBGI, SIX, SKH, SWHC, SCTY, SPPI, SSI, SMP, SMRT, SF, SPWR, TAL, TTEC, TTI, TCBI, TTS, PBH, ECOL, USNA, VECO,WAC, WST, INT, XPO, ZBRA, LTM, TRS, HNT, DLX, ULTI, UEIC, KIOR, ELX, ENPH, QLGC, GDOT, ECPG, VSH, EPL, TRMR, UTEK, WNC, SZYM, REGI, CACI, PVTB, AMRS, CRZO, JCOM, INWK, BRKS, FSYS, EXAM, THRM, POOL, ASGN, CYBX, DAR, CKEC, TYL, ABMD, ERII, TREX, LOCK, FNSR, CSGS

·         26th Annual Credit Suisse Chemical and Agricultural Science Conference

o    Scheduled to appear: RPM, APD, AKZOY.PK, CF, DOW, HUN, IHS, IPI, MON, OLN, PDH, PX, ROC, SYT, TAM, SHW, PPG, CYT, MOS, CE, AVY, DD, WLK, LYB, POL, ECL, AXLL, RNF, FOE, POT, CHMT, GRA, CMP, FMC, CBT

Wednesday

·         Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference 2013

o    Scheduled to appear: AIV, DRCO, SPP, CVO, VTSS, CRZO, DXLG, KONA, URS, PLCE, END, CAB, ASCMA, LF, ISH, HOV, LCUT, SPB, AXAS, OME, TPC, RTK, ACAS, PVA, HCOM, VOXX, MED, TREX

·         UBS Houston Energy Symposium

o    Scheduled to appear: EOG, NBL, TDW, HAL, MRO, FTI, NFX

·         FOMC Policy Decision & Economic Projections at 14:00 followed by Ben Bernanke Press Conference at 14:30

Thursday

·         2013 Integrated Electrical Solutions Forum

o    Scheduled to appear: IBM, MENT, IBM, MENT, MENT

·         Clean Harbors (CLH) Investor Day

·         Microsoft (MSFT) Financial Analyst Meeting 2013

Friday

·         Kansas City Fed President George (voter, hawk) to speak at 12:30

·         Saint Louis Fed President James Bullard (voter, dove) to speak at 12:55

·         Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota (non-voter, dove) to speak at 13:45

Jason's Commentaries

The market is getting more erratic now with the increasing number of uncertainty in the market, it's hard for the market to make some serious commitment in their actions. Firstly, we have Syria's war plan undecided by the Congress as Russia backs Syria. Secondly, the Fed taper talk is coming up this week. Thirdly, Larry Summers has been rumored to be the next Fed Chairman. Lastly, the index adjustment on Dow Jones Industrial Average on 20 Sep will be happening soon. With these uncertainty, market is unable to make a commitment or they are pricing in for the past few sessions. Volumes were very low at 553m shares traded on the NYSE.

Market started on Friday with a mixed sentiment. Dow started bullish, Nasdaq started bearish while S&P500 started mixed. Nasdaq was dragged down by Apple and Bidu as they fell 1.65% and 1.29% respectively. The gain on Intel of 3.58% was unable to counteract the drop of the 2 heaviest component on Nasdaq. However, Intel was able to lead the Dow on the higher side. S&P500 remained mixed and volatile on Friday. At the closing bell, we can see that there's some window dressing going on in the market currently. The Energy sector was the only sector lagging on Friday while staples and utilities were amongst the strongest gainers.

While on the Technical perspective, we do have the market gaining bullish strength however that could be caused by serious pricing in by the market in anticipation of the uncertainties. On the weekly perspective we have 2 consecutive bullish week and Nasdaq breaking the high. In the near term I believe the market will continue to make higher highs. However, that might change if there are some other unexpected factors happening.

The coming week will be laden with heavy economic data. We'll be having the CPI report on Tuesday, Fed meeting on Wednesday and Thursday we will be having the existing home sales and Philly Fed report. It's going to be really volatile. Stay safe peeps!

Market Call: FLAT to downside

Date: 16 Sep 2013