24 Dec 2013 AMC - Market closed early ahead for Christmas
Market Summary
Before Market Opens
S&P futures vs fair value:
+1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.70.
The S&P 500 continue to hover less than two points above fair value.
Most Asian markets ended the holiday session on an upbeat note. Notably, indices in China (+0.2%) and Hong Kong (+1.1%) advanced after the People's Bank of China conducted reverse repurchase operations to alleviate the recent cash crunch. As a result, near-term money market rates fell with the one-week SHIBOR dropping nearly 265 basis points to 6.197%.
There was no economic data of note.
The S&P 500 continue to hover less than two points above fair value.
Most Asian markets ended the holiday session on an upbeat note. Notably, indices in China (+0.2%) and Hong Kong (+1.1%) advanced after the People's Bank of China conducted reverse repurchase operations to alleviate the recent cash crunch. As a result, near-term money market rates fell with the one-week SHIBOR dropping nearly 265 basis points to 6.197%.
There was no economic data of note.
·
Japan's Nikkei added 0.1% after the release of the
latest monthly economic report, which did not mention ‘deflation' for the first
time in four years. The index briefly ticked above 16,000 for the first time
since 2007, but slipped below that level into the close.
·
Hong
Kong's Hang Seng rallied
throughout the abbreviated session, gaining 1.1% after the PBoC liquidity
injection. Financials outperformed with Bank of China and Hang Lung Properties
gaining 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively.
·
China's Shanghai Composite ended modestly higher, adding
0.2%. Air China advanced 1.0%.
European indices are little changed
with several markets closed for Christmas Eve. Regarding major indices,
Germany's DAX is closed and Great Britain's FTSE added 0.2% in an abbreviated
session. Among news of note, reports out of Spain indicate the region of
Catalonia will miss its 2013 budget deficit target of 1.58%.
Economic data was scarce. French GDP contracted 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, as expected. Separately, consumer spending increased 1.4% month-over-month (0.4% prior, -0.1% last). Elsewhere, Great Britain's BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 45,000 (44,500 expected, 43,300 prior).
Economic data was scarce. French GDP contracted 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, as expected. Separately, consumer spending increased 1.4% month-over-month (0.4% prior, -0.1% last). Elsewhere, Great Britain's BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 45,000 (44,500 expected, 43,300 prior).
·
Great
Britain's FTSE added 0.2% as
discretionary names paced the advance. British Sky Broadcasting and
International Consolidated Airlines gained 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively.
·
In
France, the CAC hovers near
its flat line. Utilities Electricite de France and Veolia Environnement
outperform with respective gains of 1.7% and 2.0% while Alcatel-Lucent lags
with a loss of 2.2%.
·
Spain's IBEX is higher by 0.6%. Construction company
Acciona is among the leaders, trading higher by 2.9%.
In domestic economic news, the October Housing
Price Index from the FHFA increased 0.5%, which followed an uptick of 0.3%
observed during the prior month.
Market Internals
Market Internals -Technical-
The Dow closed up 63 (+0.39%) at 16358, the S&P 500 closed up 5 (+0.29%) at 1833, and the Nasdaq closed up 7 (+0.16%) at 4155. Action came on below average volume (NYSE 266 mln vs. avg. of 718; NASDAQ 764 mln vs. avg. of 1767), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 2039/1018, NASDAQ 1563/970) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 291/30, NASDAQ 303/14).
Relative Strength:
Junior Gold Miners-GDXJ +3.85%, Turkey-TUR +2.77%, Silver Miners-SIL +2.37%, Metals and Mining-XME +2.15%, Copper-JJC +1.83%, China 25 Index-FXI +1.82%, Base Metals-DBB +1.64%, Hong Kong-EWH +1.19%, United Kingdom-EWU +1.18%, Spain-EWP +0.99%.
Relative Weakness:
Volatility-VXX -2.04%, BRICs-EEB -1.94%, Japan-EWJ -1.34%, Brazilian Real-BZF -1.32%, Natural Gas-UNG -1.22%, Timber-CUT -0.97%, Coffee-JO -0.96%, 20+ Year Treasuries-TLT -0.8%, Chile-ECH -0.73%, Pacific Index-VPL -0.61%.
The Dow closed up 63 (+0.39%) at 16358, the S&P 500 closed up 5 (+0.29%) at 1833, and the Nasdaq closed up 7 (+0.16%) at 4155. Action came on below average volume (NYSE 266 mln vs. avg. of 718; NASDAQ 764 mln vs. avg. of 1767), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 2039/1018, NASDAQ 1563/970) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 291/30, NASDAQ 303/14).
Relative Strength:
Junior Gold Miners-GDXJ +3.85%, Turkey-TUR +2.77%, Silver Miners-SIL +2.37%, Metals and Mining-XME +2.15%, Copper-JJC +1.83%, China 25 Index-FXI +1.82%, Base Metals-DBB +1.64%, Hong Kong-EWH +1.19%, United Kingdom-EWU +1.18%, Spain-EWP +0.99%.
Relative Weakness:
Volatility-VXX -2.04%, BRICs-EEB -1.94%, Japan-EWJ -1.34%, Brazilian Real-BZF -1.32%, Natural Gas-UNG -1.22%, Timber-CUT -0.97%, Coffee-JO -0.96%, 20+ Year Treasuries-TLT -0.8%, Chile-ECH -0.73%, Pacific Index-VPL -0.61%.
Leaders and Laggards
Technical Updates
Briefing's Commentaries
Closing Market Summary: Stocks Post
Modest Christmas Eve Gains
'Twas the night before Christmas so few joined the fray
The lack of concerted leadership did its part, keeping both buyers and sellers at bay.
The volume was light and trading ranges were tight
In fact, the New York Stock Exchange had less than 300 million shares in its holiday sight.
That marked a multi-year low, but did little to stop the glow
As the S&P added just over five points to a year-long bull show.
Stocks climbed through the session with cyclical groups serving up the lead
To be sure, consumer discretionary (+0.3%) and industrials (+0.5%) padded their status as this year's elite.
The two sectors extended their yearly gains to 39.5% and 36.2%, respectively
With their influence being felt on all the indices due to their 22% share of the S&P, collectively.
Like Rudolph, the influential industrials led Santa's aerial charge
While discretionary shares, like Dasher or Dancer, paced the convoy of the bearded airborne man at large.
Among commodities, energy (+0.6%) and materials (+1.1%) were boosted by rising oil and gold shining for once
Specifically, crude climbed (+0.3%) to $99.21 per barrel while gold (+0.5%) ended at $1203.30 per troy ounce.
On the downside, consumer staples (+0.1%), health care (-0.1%), and financials (+0.2%) lagged modestly
But despite their underperformance, the session went off swimmingly.
There were some standouts in the heavyweight sectors, but some few big names found a coal or two
On that note, Twitter (TWTR 69.96, +5.42) was boosted by continued momentum, Nike (NKE 77.66, +0.55) climbed on prospects of increasing market share and revenue while Apple (AAPL 567.67, -2.42) shed 0.4% because after yesterday's 3.8% jump, a pullback was simply due.
Over on the bond side, steady selling ensued
But despite the five-basis point gain (to 2.99%), the volume remained subdued.
A flurry of data did little to upset the mood
Most notably, the Durable Orders report revealed that in October, a solid increase in capital goods orders (+4.5%) was accrued.
There will be no data tomorrow and the exchange will be under lock and key
So we'd like to take this opportunity to send you and your family warm Christmas wishes from the Briefing.com family.
'Twas the night before Christmas so few joined the fray
The lack of concerted leadership did its part, keeping both buyers and sellers at bay.
The volume was light and trading ranges were tight
In fact, the New York Stock Exchange had less than 300 million shares in its holiday sight.
That marked a multi-year low, but did little to stop the glow
As the S&P added just over five points to a year-long bull show.
Stocks climbed through the session with cyclical groups serving up the lead
To be sure, consumer discretionary (+0.3%) and industrials (+0.5%) padded their status as this year's elite.
The two sectors extended their yearly gains to 39.5% and 36.2%, respectively
With their influence being felt on all the indices due to their 22% share of the S&P, collectively.
Like Rudolph, the influential industrials led Santa's aerial charge
While discretionary shares, like Dasher or Dancer, paced the convoy of the bearded airborne man at large.
Among commodities, energy (+0.6%) and materials (+1.1%) were boosted by rising oil and gold shining for once
Specifically, crude climbed (+0.3%) to $99.21 per barrel while gold (+0.5%) ended at $1203.30 per troy ounce.
On the downside, consumer staples (+0.1%), health care (-0.1%), and financials (+0.2%) lagged modestly
But despite their underperformance, the session went off swimmingly.
There were some standouts in the heavyweight sectors, but some few big names found a coal or two
On that note, Twitter (TWTR 69.96, +5.42) was boosted by continued momentum, Nike (NKE 77.66, +0.55) climbed on prospects of increasing market share and revenue while Apple (AAPL 567.67, -2.42) shed 0.4% because after yesterday's 3.8% jump, a pullback was simply due.
Over on the bond side, steady selling ensued
But despite the five-basis point gain (to 2.99%), the volume remained subdued.
A flurry of data did little to upset the mood
Most notably, the Durable Orders report revealed that in October, a solid increase in capital goods orders (+4.5%) was accrued.
There will be no data tomorrow and the exchange will be under lock and key
So we'd like to take this opportunity to send you and your family warm Christmas wishes from the Briefing.com family.
·
Nasdaq +37.6% YTD
·
Russell 2000 +36.8% YTD
·
S&P 500 +28.6% YTD
·
DJIA +24.8% YTD
Commodities
COMEX Metals Closing Prices... Reminder: Pit trading closed early today (see 09:23 post)
- Feb gold fell $0.50 to $1203.30/oz
- Mar silver rose $0.06 to $19.47/oz
- Mar copper rose 6 cents to $3.37/lbs
CBOT
Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices
·
Mar corn settled $0.01
higher at $4.35/bushel
·
Mar wheat fell 3 cents
to $6.06/bushel
·
Jan soybeans rose 5
cents to $13.34/bushel
·
Jan ethanol - N/A
NYMEX Energy Closing Prices :
- Crude oil spent today's session in negative territory despite a weaker dollar index. The energy component dipped to a session low of $98.67 after pulling back from its session high of $99.30 set at floor trade open. It eventually settled with a 0.4% loss.
- Natural gas, on the other hand, traded higher today, with prices touching a session high of $4.51. It pulled back slightly in afternoon pit action and settled with a 1.1% gain.
Treasuries
Treasuries Slide in
Holiday-Shortened Session: 10-yr: -12/32..2.983%..USD/JPY: 104.30..EUR/USD:
1.3674
·
Steady selling pressured
Treasuries throughout the session as sellers took control following this
morning's better than expected data and never let go.
·
Durable orders (3.5%
actual v. 2.2% expected), durable orders -ex transportation (1.2% actual v.
0.6% expected), and new home sales (464K actual v. 433K expected) were the
latest data points to top estimates, sparking the session-long selloff. Click here to see an intraday
yields chart.
·
A +4.8bp advance ran the
5y up to 1.741%, where it closed at its highest level since the middle
of September. The yield is +25bps since last week's FOMC decision
to scale back its bond-buying program.
·
Moderate selling of 10s
caused the benchmark yield to tack on another +5.4bps and finish @ 2.983%, its highest
close since August 2011. The psychologically important 3.000% threshold
will be watched closely in the days ahead.
·
Selling dropped the long
bond nearly one full point, producing a +5.7bp gain for the 30y. The yield on
the long bond ended @3.901%, less than 2bps below its high close for the
year.
·
A
steeper yield curve persisted as the 2-10-yr spread widened to 258.5bps.
·
Precious metals went off
near their highs as with gold +$7 @ $1204 and silver +$0.10 @ $19.51.
·
Markets
are closed tomorrow in observance of Christmas Day.
·
Thursday's
Data: Initial and continuing
claims (8:30).
Next Day In View
Economic Commentary
Economic Summary: Durable Goods
Orders and New Home sales easily beat expectations
Economic Data Summary:
Economic Data Summary:
·
Weekly MBA Mortgage
Applications -6.3% vs Briefing.com consensus of ; Last Week was -5.5%
·
November
Durable Goods 3.5% vs Briefing.com consensus of 2.2%; October was revised to
-0.7% from -1.6%
·
November Durable Goods
Ex Transportation 1.2% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.6%; October was revised
to 0.7% from 0.4%
o The gains in durable goods orders, however, did
not stop with the transportation sector. Excluding transportation, durable
goods orders rose 1.2% in November, up from a 0.7% gain in October, and easily
topped the consensus forecast of a 0.6% gain. Nearly every sector reported
strong orders demand. That included a 3.8% increase in machinery orders and a
1.7% increase in computer and electronic products. Business capital demand rose
at its fastest rate since January. Orders of nondefense capital goods increased
4.5% in November after falling 0.7% in October. More importantly, shipments of
business capital surged 2.8% after falling 0.4% in October.
·
October FHFA Housing
Price Index 0.5% vs Briefing.com consensus of ; September was revised to 0.2%
from 0.3%
·
Novemebr
New Home Sales 464K vs Briefing.com consensus of 433K; October was revised to
474K from 444K
o Demand seems to be rebounding nicely as the
calendar enters the last portion of the year. Surprisingly, this comes at a
time when mortgage rates are steadily increasing. It is unknown if the recent
boost to sales is a result of buyers taking advantage of current rates before
they go up even higher. The improvement in employment and income, though, are
also likely reasons for the return in sales demand. If sales suddenly plummet
over the next few months, the increase in demand was likely related to rate
changes and not a change in demand trends from stronger economic
fundamentals.
Upcoming Economic Data:
·
Weekly Initial Claims
due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 350K; Last Week was 379K)
·
Weekly Continuing Claims
due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 2.850 M ; Last Week was
2.884 M )
On other news....
Currencies
Dollar Drifts Little Changed: 10-yr:
-12/32..2.981%..USD/JPY: 104.22..EUR/USD: 1.3676
The Dollar Index holds little changed near 80.50 as a sleepy session nears the final hour of trading for equities. Today's action has been mostly uneventful with trade drifting in just a 10 cent range. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.
The Dollar Index holds little changed near 80.50 as a sleepy session nears the final hour of trading for equities. Today's action has been mostly uneventful with trade drifting in just a 10 cent range. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.
·
EURUSD is -25 pips @ 1.3670 as trade ticks off session
lows. The single currency was able to withstand a test of minor support in the
1.3650 area, but remains modestly lower despite the lone data from the region,
French consumer spending (1.4% MoM actual v. 0.3% MoM expected), topping
estimates.
·
GBPUSD is +10 pips @ 1.6365 as trade drifts just off
the highs. Action has been rather lackluster during the U.S. session as trade
has been limited to just a 20 pip range.
·
USDCHF is +25 pips @ .8965 as trade looks likely
to post its first gain in three sessions. A minor victory for the bulls would
be the retaking of .9050 resistance that is helped by the 50 dma (.9028).
·
USDJPY is +20 pips @ 104.30 as action remains
on track to close at its best level in five years. The 106.00/1.0700 area
remains a potential near-term target as the key 61.8% retracement of the 2007
to 2012 move (105.92) and the 200 mma (107.29) lurk in the vicinity.
·
AUDUSD is -10 pips @ .8920 as trade holds just off the
lows. Early action saw the hard currency fail near minor resistance in the .8950
that has provided a lid since the middle of December. A breakdown of the .8850
area would produce the lowest print since July 2010.
·
USDCAD is +15 pips @ 1.0615 as buyers are in control
for the first time in four days. Minor support in the 1.0580 area has survived
another test, causing some to return focus to the key 1.0700 level.
Jason's Commentaries
Market closed early on 24 Dec for Christmas. As expected, market is likely to push the highs once again when there's such low volumes. Volumes were standing at 272m shares traded on the NYSE. Internals were all pointing in the bullish direction. Dow was surprisingly the leader of the Tuesday's session. It seems that we've passed the 5th candle reversal and there's starting to have a price to volume divergence. I'm gonna expect some short correction coming soon. Meanwhile, enjoy this holiday period! Santa Claus rally is coming!
Market Call: FLAT to upside
Date: 26 Dec 2013
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