16 Nov 2012 AMC
Market Summary
Was almost right about the call..the market was flat... but to the upside... especially the Nov Expiration Friday.
There's a number of factor that caused the slight rebound on Friday.
1) Presidential meeting with Congress
2) APPL is finally making some bounds that led the NASDAQ
3) Nov Expiration Friday has a 80% record of going up for the past 10 years. It seems that the tradition did hold.
Market Internals
Volumes were exceptionally high on Friday as it's expiration Friday. Looking at the UVOL, it's outpacing the DVOL. However, I would see it as major players closing out their short positions in response to the Congress Meeting and Black Friday this week. Although it's a bullish Friday, I reckon the Market will be staying out of the market until Black Friday is over due to unecessary Volatility.
Leaders and Laggards
Utilities finally made some gains back after being trashed down.. If you can notice from all the sector ETFs, XLK and XLV have dragging the market since Nov. Especially with such high weight from AAPL, the market is following AAPL's movement.
Technical Updates
Commentaries
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Commodities (As Of 19 Nov)
Treasuries
Weekly Analysis
Week 38
Technical Updates
As we can see... we're are not far from June's low... It won't take much to push us down to that level in such short time..
Commentaries
Weekly Wrap
Dow +45.93 at 12588.31, Nasdaq +16.19 at 2853.13, S&P +6.55 at 1359.88
The major averages began the day on a down note and continued declining for the first two hours of the session. As the S&P 500 reached its lows, Congressional leaders held a press conference regarding the progress of fiscal cliff negotiations. During the public statement, Senator Harry Reid said that officials would not wait until the last day of December, and could agree on the framework for a deal prior to the deadline. The remarks helped the indices surge to session highs, where they spent the majority of the afternoon. The S&P 500 built on its gains and finished higher by 0.5%.
High-yielding telecom stocks continued seeing weakness as the country nears the fiscal cliff. Morning reports indicated the White House is considering a package which would delay the mandatory spending cuts scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2013. However, this was received as a delay of the decision, rather than a step towards a concrete solution. The telecommunications sector slid 0.6% and AT&T (T 33.14, -0.28),Sprint Nextel (S 5.48, -0.06), and Verizon (VZ 41.40, -0.30) all lost between 0.7% and 1.1%.
Among technology stocks, Apple (AAPL 527.68, +2.06) registered a gain of 0.4% as the stock attempts to recover from recent softness.
A handful of notable technology companies have reported earnings since yesterday's close. Dell (DELL 8.86, -0.70) settled lower by 7.3% after missing on earnings and revenue. During the third quarter, the computer manufacturer saw its top line decline 10.7% year-over-year, to $13.72 billion. In addition, the company issued downside fourth quarter revenue guidance and reaffirmed its full-year 2013 earnings expectations.
Meanwhile, Applied Materials (AMAT 10.15, -0.15) reported strong results, but issued cautious guidance. The semiconductor manufacturer earned $0.06 on $1.65 billion in revenue, which beat the Capital IQ consensus estimates. However, forward guidance was a point of concern as the company expects first quarter earnings and revenue below consensus.
Lastly, Autodesk (ADSK 31.48, +0.98) rose by 3.2% after reporting mixed earnings. The software provider's earnings exceeded estimates by $0.04, while its revenue of $548 million fell short of estimates. Similar to Applied Materials, Autodesk is cautious about its upcoming quarter as it expects earnings and revenue to miss consensus estimates.
Looking at the financial sector, the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 15.28, +0.10) added 0.7%. Even though the proxy ETF traded ahead of the broader market, major financials were mixed. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 39.53, +0.14) added 0.4% after reaching a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding Bear Stearns and JPMorgan residential mortgage-backed securities. As part of the settlement, JPMorgan will pay approximately $297 million in penalties. Credit Suisse (CS 21.94, -0.43) was also named in the settlement and will pay approximately $120 million in fines. Looking at other majors, Citigroup (C 34.98, -0.23) slid 0.7% while Wells Fargo (WFC 31.94, +0.37) outperformed with a gain of 1.2%.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average underperformed the industrial average and settled lower by 0.5%. Out of the five airlines which are part of the transportation average, four saw notable losses. Delta Air Lines (DAL 9.33, -0.16) fell 1.7%, and JetBlue Airways(JBLU 4.96, -0.07) lost 1.4%. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines (LUV 8.93, +0.09) outperformed and added 1.0%. As 17 out of 20 transportation stocks settled lower, two listings connected to the trucking industry saw strength. JB Hunt (JBHT 59.32, +0.22) and Ryder System (R 44.22, +0.45) added 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively.
Casino stocks were broadly stronger after Penn National Gaming (PENN 48.23, +10.62) announced plans to split its real estate and gaming assets into two separate companies. Under the new structure, a newly-established PropCo will be the first real investment trust focused solely on gaming. Penn National surged 28.2% while peers Ameristar Casinos(ASCA 19.52, +2.67), Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK 12.65, +0.84), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.27, +1.71) all gained between 4.2% and 15.9%.
In economic news, the September net long-term TIC flows report indicated a $3.3 billion inflow of foreign capital into U.S. denominated assets. This follows the prior month's $90.0 billion inflow.
Industrial production decreased during October by 0.4%, which was worse than the 0.1% increase that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. The reading follows the revised 0.2% increase recorded during the prior month. Capacity utilization hit 77.8%, which was worse than the 78.3% expected by the Briefing.com consensus, and down from the revised prior month reading of 78.2%.
On Monday, investors will digest the October existing home sales report and November NAHB Housing Market Index. Both figures will be reported at 10:00 ET.
Week in Review: Markets Continue Retreating Amid Fiscal Cliff Worries
Stocks began Monday's session on a higher note. However, the S&P 500 followed the early strength with a slide into the red. After hovering near its lows for little over an hour, the index staged a steady climb towards fresh highs. The benchmark average followed the early afternoon strength with another slide towards its flat line, where it remained until the end of the day. The day's volume was well below average and the bond market was closed in observance of Veterans Day. Titanium Metals (TIE 16.61, +0.11) surged 42.6% after being acquired by Precision Castparts (PCP 174.05, -0.23) for $16.50 per share.
On Tuesday, equities started the session on a lower note. However, the major averages followed the lower open with a steady climb towards session highs. The optimism held the S&P 500 near the 1385 level for the majority of the session, before late day selling pushed it back into the red. As a result the benchmark average settled lower by 0.4%. Home Depot (HD 62.12, +0.87) rose by 3.6% after reporting upbeat earnings and issuing upside guidance.
Wednesday's session opened higher, but the early strength did not hold past the opening minutes. The S&P 500 marked its session best shortly after the open, and headed lower. The morning slide was accompanied by headlines out of the Middle East which indicated Israeli forces have killed two top Hamas officials in an operation dubbed "Pillar of Defense." After the first-hour slide, the benchmark average held near the 1365 level until President Obama held a press conference to further discuss the fiscal cliff. During his remarks, the commander-in-chief said he is "hoping for compromise and hoping for new ideas." The president's statements failed to inspire investor confidence, thus resulting in an afternoon sell-off which saw the S&P 500 settle lower by 1.4%. Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF 40.87, -0.88) gained 34.5% after reporting strong quarterly results.
On Thursday, stocks showed indecision in the early going as trade hovered around the flat line for the first 90 minutes. The S&P 500 followed the initial choppiness with a slide to a session low near 1350. The level provided some support for the benchmark index which managed to cross into positive territory before sellers retook control and drove it back down to session lows. However, the average received a considerable bid in the final minutes of the trading day and ended with a loss of 0.2%. Apple (AAPL 527.68, +2.06) slid 2.1% to extend its recent weakness.
Next Week In View
The major news coming out this week are the home data and Helicopter Ben speaking after the release of Housing data. But the biggest movers will likely be the outcome of the congress meeting and the black Friday sales report. However, the Black Friday report and the Cyber Monday Sales report will be coming out after next week possibly. Major players will be placing a lot of attention on that report.
And do not forget this week is a very short trading week...
Market Call(Weekly): UP
Market Call(19 Nov):FLAT to downside
Market Call(19 Nov):FLAT to downside
Date: 19 Nov 2012
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