Monday 1 April 2013

28 Mar 2013 AMC


28 Mar 2013 AMC
Market Summary 

Market Internals



Leaders and Laggards




Technical Updates






Commentaries 



Stock Market Update
16:15 ET Dow +52.38 at 14578.54, Nasdaq +11.00 at 3267.52, S&P +6.34 at 1569.19 :[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended the last session of the holiday-shortened week with slim gains. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, and notched its highest close of all-time, eclipsing the previous record close set on October 9, 2007. 

The day began on a rather uneventful note, but the flat open was followed by a brief stumble which sent the S&P 500 into negative territory after the latest reading of the Chicago PMI missed expectations. 

For March, the Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.4 from the 56.8 reported in the February report. Meanwhile, the Briefing.com consensus had expected a smaller decline, to 56.5. 

The subsequent weakness was quickly bought up, which enabled the benchmark average to spend the rest of the day in a steady upward climb. 

Although equities settled with gains, today's advance was paced primarily by defensively-minded groups. Health care and utilities led the broader market for the duration of the session, and ended as the top performing sectors on the day. 

Notably, the health care sector ended the month as the top performing group. Further, having gained 15.2% year-to-date, the sector is also the best performer so far in 2013. 

Today's other outperformers included industrials and materials. However, their gains were largely the result of rebound trade after the growth-oriented groups saw some weakness over the past two weeks. 

The SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB 39.18, +0.15) settled higher by 0.4%, but even with today's gain, the sector ETF ended the month as the second weakest performer, trailing only behind telecom services. 

The weakness of the materials sector is indicative of the persisting growth concerns. These same worries are being reflected by the price of copper futures, which fell 1.1% to $3.405 per pound, to end the quarter at their lowest level since November of last year. 

While materials found themselves near the lead, cyclical financials and technology ended as the weakest performers. 

Major bank stocks remained under pressure since the first Cypriot bailout proposal was unveiled two weeks ago. Morgan Stanley (MS 21.98, -0.31) was the weakest performer among the majors and the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 18.21, +0.05) registered a slim gain of 0.3% in today's action. However, even with today's gain, the bank sector ETF is down 1.6% since last Monday. 

Elsewhere, the technology sector was unable to climb too far above yesterday's close as Apple (AAPL 442.66, -9.42) weighed. The largest tech stock sold off steadily throughout the day before ending lower by 2.1% Also of note, BlackBerry (BBRY 14.44, -0.12) slipped 0.8% after beating on earnings on below-consensus revenue. 

Reviewing the final sector performance, utilities (+1.3%), health care (+1.0%), industrials (+0.6%), and materials (+0.5%) led the way. On the downside, energy (-0.3%), financials (+0.2%), and technology (+0.3%) lagged. 

Looking back at the day's economic data, the latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 357,000. This was higher than the 338,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was also above the revised prior week count of 341,000. As for continuing claims, they fell to 3.050 million from 3.077 million.

The third estimate of third quarter GDP showed growth of 0.4%, which was better than the 0.3% that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Meanwhile, the third quarter GDP Deflator was revised up to 1.0%. 

Note that equity and bond markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. However, a handful of economic data points will be reported on Friday. February personal income, personal spending and core PCE prices will all be reported at 8:30 ET. Lastly, the final March Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey will be released at 9:55 ET.
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Briefing's Commentaries



Week in Review: Cyprus Remains in Focus 
On Monday, the major averages ended the headline-filled session with modest losses, and the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.3%. Equities began the day amid broad strength with the early gains coming after Cyprus and the Eurogroup agreed on the terms of a rescue package for the island nation. The early gains did not hold past the opening hour after Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem gave an interview to Reuters in which he explained how the Cypriot bank restructuring may be used as a template for future bailout talks. Growth-oriented sectors were responsible for the bulk of Monday's losses. The industrial space ended as the biggest laggard amid broad weakness. Machinery producers lagged throughout the day, and Caterpillar (CAT 86.97, +0.07) lost 0.9%. 

Tuesday ended with firm gains and the S&P 500 settled higher by 0.8%. After starting the day on a positive note, the benchmark average spent the balance of the session in a six-point range. Energy was the only economically-sensitive group which settled among the leaders. Crude oil contributed to the sector strength as the energy component climbed 1.5% to $96.26. Meanwhile, the SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE 79.31, -0.23) ended higher by 1.1%. 

Wednesday's session saw the S&P 500 overcome early losses to close lower by 0.1%. The index began the session lower by 0.8% as European worries remained at the forefront. The future of the eurozone was questioned as market participants speculated whether or not the European Union will copy the Cypriot playbook next time a troubled nation is in need of emergency assistance. Bank stocks reflected the uncertainty surrounding the eurozone. While most sectors ended the session well off their lows, banks settled near the bottom of today's range. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF ended lower by 0.5% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 47.46, -0.31) was the weakest performer among the majors. Shares of JPMorgan fell 1.8% to close below their 50-day moving average. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1869/1135. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1375/1081.




Next Week In View


Jason's Commentaries

Was right on the call on the eve of good Friday. Market was up 52 points, with only the Energy sector lagging the market. The leaders for the day was the Healthcare sector and the Utilities sector. It seems that the defensive sector are gaining strength. In fact, the defensive sector has already been over bought. The PE ratio of the S&P500 were 18.35, but the PE on the Transportation index, is 20.75, 25.03 on the Dow Utility, and Russel 2000 is at 34.88. This has been showing that the market has been turning defensive or rather, it has been going up quietly for the past 2 months. On Thursday, we have a sudden surge in market participation of 770 million shares traded on the NYSE, higher than any day on the past week. On the same day, the Dow and the SPX broke another new high. The treasuries started to retrace on Thursday when the market decides to make another high. Components like Caterpillar is weighing down the market as the machine makers lost quite a bit. On the internals, we're having the bulls outpacing the bears by a 2 to 1 ratio and it's not a very clear win on the sentiment. I reckon this bearish effect is going to be carried over to this week while we are going to have the employment report coming out and Bernanke talking on Thursday.



Market Call: Flat to downside
Date: 1 April 2013

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