24 Feb 2014 AMC- Market rallied as Nasdaq and S&P500 registered new highs
Market Summary
European
Markets Closing Prices
European
markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
·
UK's FTSE: + 0.4%
·
Germany's DAX: + 0.5%
·
France's CAC: + 0.9%
·
Spain's IBEX: + 1.2%
·
Portugal's PSI: + 1.1%
·
Italy's MIB Index: + 0.4%
·
Irish Ovrl Index: + 0.5%
·
Greece ATHEX Composite: -2.4%
Before Market Opens
S&P futures vs fair value:
+4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.70.
The S&P 500 futures trade four points above fair value.
Markets across Asia finished mostly lower. Home prices in China saw the pace of their gains slow for the first time in 14 months as data showed a 9.6% year-over-year jump in January (9.9% previous). In other regional data, New Zealand's Credit Card Spending increased 9.2% year-over-year (4.7% last).
The S&P 500 futures trade four points above fair value.
Markets across Asia finished mostly lower. Home prices in China saw the pace of their gains slow for the first time in 14 months as data showed a 9.6% year-over-year jump in January (9.9% previous). In other regional data, New Zealand's Credit Card Spending increased 9.2% year-over-year (4.7% last).
·
Japan's Nikkei shed 0.2%, slipping off three-week highs
as the yen saw early strength. Financials were pressured as both Mitsubishi UFJ
Financial and Sumitomo Mitsui both lost more than 1.0%.
·
Hong
Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.8%,
slumping for a second session as trade slipped back below the 200-day moving
average. Property developers were weak as the Chinese data weighed. China
Overseas Land & Investment led the sector lower, off 3.6%.
·
China's Shanghai Composite lost 1.8%, falling to its
lowest level in two weeks as property shares weighed. Poly Real Estate tumbled
8.2% and China Vanke gave up more than 6.0%.
Major European indices trade mixed
with Spain's IBEX (+0.6%) in the lead while Great Britain's FTSE (-0.2%) lags.
Participants received several economic data points. Eurozone CPI fell 1.1%
month-over-month (-1.1% expected, 0.3% prior) while the year-over-year reading
increased 0.8% (0.7% consensus, 0.7% previous). Core CPI fell 1.7%
month-over-month (0.3% last) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.8%,
as expected (0.8% prior). Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 111.3
from 110.6 (110.6 expected) as Current Assessment improved to 114.4 from 112.4
(112.8 expected) while Business Expectations slipped to 108.3 from 108.9 (108.2
expected). Elsewhere, Spain's Business Confidence ticked up to -9 from -11 (-10
consensus).
In news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the upcoming March policy meeting will be critical in determining whether to introduce additional stimulus.
In news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the upcoming March policy meeting will be critical in determining whether to introduce additional stimulus.
·
Great
Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.2% as
financials lag. RSA Insurance trades lower by 4.0% and HSBC holds a loss of
3.3% after missing earnings estimates. Machinery manufacturer Bunzl leads with
a gain of 5.8%.
·
Germany's DAX trades down 0.1% with Volkswagen seeing the
largest loss. The carmaker trades lower by 4.4% after making an offer to
acquire truck maker Scania. On the upside, Deutsche Lufthansa trades up
1.5%.
·
In
France, the CAC is higher by
0.2%. Telecom names outperform with Orange and Vivendi up 1.1% and 1.4%,
respectively. On the downside, defense contractor Safran is lower by 2.0%.
·
Spain's IBEX holds an advance of 0.5% amid broad
strength. Industrial name Sacyr leads with a gain of 2.5%.
Market Internals
Market Internals -Technical-
The Nasdaq closed up 30 (+0.69%) at 4293, the Dow closed up 106 (+0.66%) at 16209, and the S&P 500 closed up 11 (+0.62%) at 1848. Action came on mixed volume (NYSE 701 mln vs. avg. of 703; NASDAQ 2010 mln vs. avg. of 1871), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1915/1201, NASDAQ 1693/932) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 252/16, NASDAQ 223/9).
Relative Strength:
Sugar-SGG +3.46%, Coffee-JO +2.93%, Egypt-EGPT +2.82%, Oil and Gas Exploration-XOP +2.52%, South Africa-EZA +2.31%, Oil Services-OIH +2.27%, Clean Energy-PBW +2.05%, Nordic 30-GXF +2.00%, New Zealand-ENZL +1.64%, Sweden-EWD +1.60%.
Relative Weakness:
Natural Gas-UNG -5.67%, Greece-GREK -2.03%, China 25 Index-FXI -1.20%, Steel-SLX -1.10%, Volatility-VXX -0.72%, Copper-JJC -0.71%, MLP Index-AMJ -0.54%, Turkey-TUR -0.50%, Hong Kong-EWH -0.45%, Chinese Yuan-CYB -0.31%.
Leaders and Laggards
Technical Updates
Briefing's Commentaries
Closing Market Summary: S&P 500
Ends Just Shy of 2013 Closing High
The stock market kicked off the new trading week on an upbeat note, sending the S&P 500 (+0.6%) to a fresh nominal intraday record high of 1858.71. Despite the rally, selling during the final hour kept the benchmark index from finishing the session above its 2013 closing high of 1848.36.
Although the catalyst for today's buying rush could be debated, some attributed the bullish tone to the resilience of the S&P 500 futures in the face of some disappointing economic data and market performance in China. To clarify, a bearish catalyst was there for the taking, but it wasn't taken. Once the U.S. stock market started with a bullish bias, a fear of missing out on further upside helped fuel some renewed buying interest following Friday's lackluster session.
Seven of ten sectors posted gains with energy (+1.5%) ending in the lead. The sector seized the lead at the open and maintained its outperformance throughout the session. Top sector members factored into the strength as Dow components Chevron (CVX 114.15, +1.47) and ExxonMobil(XOM 96.44, +1.41) both gained near 1.4% while crude oil rose 0.6% to $102.81/bbl.
Staying on the commodity theme, precious metals extended their recent gains while copper sold off. Gold futures climbed 1.1% to $1337.90/ozt while silver futures advanced 1.2% to $22.04/ozt. Today's rally extended gold's monthly gain to 7.5% while silver ended the session with a February increase of 15.1%. For its part, copper slid 0.8% to $3.264/lb amid reports of Chinese banks cutting credit to property developers. On a related note, the materials sector shed 0.5%.
Outside of energy and materials, the remaining four cyclical sectors were mixed with respect to the broader market. Financials (+0.8%) and industrials (+0.8%) outperformed while consumer discretionary (+0.6%) and technology (+0.5%) lagged.
Notably, the tech sector was unable to keep up with the S&P 500 as several large components like Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.12, -0.01), Qualcomm (QCOM 75.43, -0.18), and Microsoft (MSFT 37.69, -0.29) lagged. The sector did see some M&A activity as TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT 11.64, +2.41) announced a merger with RF Micro Devices (RFMD 7.03, +1.22).
On the countercyclical side, health care (+0.8%) outperformed while consumer staples (+0.4%), telecom services (-1.1%), and utilities (-0.3%) lagged.
Treasuries posted modest gains with the benchmark 10-yr yield slipping one basis point to 2.74%.
Today's participation was above average as just over 830 million shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE.
Tomorrow, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index and the FHFA Housing Price Index for December will both be released at 9:00 ET while the February Consumer Confidence report will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.
The stock market kicked off the new trading week on an upbeat note, sending the S&P 500 (+0.6%) to a fresh nominal intraday record high of 1858.71. Despite the rally, selling during the final hour kept the benchmark index from finishing the session above its 2013 closing high of 1848.36.
Although the catalyst for today's buying rush could be debated, some attributed the bullish tone to the resilience of the S&P 500 futures in the face of some disappointing economic data and market performance in China. To clarify, a bearish catalyst was there for the taking, but it wasn't taken. Once the U.S. stock market started with a bullish bias, a fear of missing out on further upside helped fuel some renewed buying interest following Friday's lackluster session.
Seven of ten sectors posted gains with energy (+1.5%) ending in the lead. The sector seized the lead at the open and maintained its outperformance throughout the session. Top sector members factored into the strength as Dow components Chevron (CVX 114.15, +1.47) and ExxonMobil(XOM 96.44, +1.41) both gained near 1.4% while crude oil rose 0.6% to $102.81/bbl.
Staying on the commodity theme, precious metals extended their recent gains while copper sold off. Gold futures climbed 1.1% to $1337.90/ozt while silver futures advanced 1.2% to $22.04/ozt. Today's rally extended gold's monthly gain to 7.5% while silver ended the session with a February increase of 15.1%. For its part, copper slid 0.8% to $3.264/lb amid reports of Chinese banks cutting credit to property developers. On a related note, the materials sector shed 0.5%.
Outside of energy and materials, the remaining four cyclical sectors were mixed with respect to the broader market. Financials (+0.8%) and industrials (+0.8%) outperformed while consumer discretionary (+0.6%) and technology (+0.5%) lagged.
Notably, the tech sector was unable to keep up with the S&P 500 as several large components like Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.12, -0.01), Qualcomm (QCOM 75.43, -0.18), and Microsoft (MSFT 37.69, -0.29) lagged. The sector did see some M&A activity as TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT 11.64, +2.41) announced a merger with RF Micro Devices (RFMD 7.03, +1.22).
On the countercyclical side, health care (+0.8%) outperformed while consumer staples (+0.4%), telecom services (-1.1%), and utilities (-0.3%) lagged.
Treasuries posted modest gains with the benchmark 10-yr yield slipping one basis point to 2.74%.
Today's participation was above average as just over 830 million shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE.
Tomorrow, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index and the FHFA Housing Price Index for December will both be released at 9:00 ET while the February Consumer Confidence report will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.
·
Nasdaq Composite +2.8%
YTD
·
Russell 2000 +1.0%
YTD
·
S&P 500 UNCH
YTD
·
Dow Jones Industrial
Average -2.2% YTD
Commodities
Closing Commodities: Natural gas
sells off, drops 7%
·
Apr gold extended
Friday's gains, trending higher after lifting from its session low of $1328.70
per ounce. It brushed a session high of $1339.20 per ounce in late morning
action and eventually settled at $1337.90 per ounce, or 1.1% higher.
·
Mar silver also traded
higher, advancing to a session high of $22.14 per ounce. It spent afternoon
action trading in a consolidative pattern just below that level and settled
with a 1.2% gain at $22.04 per ounce.
·
Apr crude oil rose to a
session high of $103.45 per barrel in late morning pit trade. It pulled back
slightly in afternoon action and settled at $102.81 per barrel, booking a gain
of 0.6%.
·
Apr natural gas, on the
other hand, retreated into negative territory after pulling back from its
session high of $5.08 per MMBtu set in early morning floor action. It trended
lower for most of the session and settled 6.8% lower at $4.66 per MMBtu,
slightly above its session low of $4.59 per MMBtu.
CBOT
Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices
·
May
corn fell 1 cent to
$4.58/bushel
·
May
wheat rose 12 cents to
$6.17/bushel
·
May
soybeans rose 13 cents to
$13.74/bushel
·
Mar
ethanol rose 8 cents to
$2.15/gallon
·
May
sugar (#16 (U.S.)) rose 0.29
of a penny to 22.15 cents/lbs
NYMEX
Energy Closing Prices
Apr crude oil rose $0.63 to $102.81/barrel
·
Crude oil traded higher
today, rising as high as $103.45 in late morning pit trade. It pulled back
slightly in afternoon action and settled with a 0.6% gain.
Apr natural gas fell 34 cents to $4.66/MMBtu
·
Natural gas retreated
into negative territory after pulling back from its session high of $5.08 set
in early morning floor action. It trended lower for most of the session and
settled slightly above its session low of $4.59, booking a loss of 6.8%.
Apr heating oil rose 1 cent to $3.05/gallon
Apr
RBOB rose 1 cent to $3.01/gallon
Treasuries
Yields Test Key Resistance Levels:
10-yr: -04/32..2.743%..USD/JPY: 102.43..EUR/USD: 1.3734
·
Treasuries ended with
small losses. Click here to see an intraday
yields chart.
·
The complex saw its overnight
gains evaporate as equities posted strong gains amid a lack of tradable news
and data.
·
Light selling was
dispersed across the complex, running most yields up +1.5bps.
·
The 5y added +1.8bps,
ending the day on 1.550% resistance.
·
Selling of 10s ran the
benchmark yield up to 2.750% resistance. The 10y continues to test the
resistance level that is aided by the 100 dma.
·
The 30y outperformed
early, but finished in-line with its peers as trade ticked up +1.5bps to
3.711%. Resistance in the 3.750% area will be under close watch in the days
ahead.
·
Selling
swung the yield curve steeper with the 2-10-yr spread widening to 242.5bps.
·
Precious metals went off
near their highs with gold +$14 @ $1338 and silver +$0.27 @ $22.05.
·
Data: Case-Shiller 20-city Index, FHFA Housing Price
Index (9), and consumer confidence (10).
·
Auction: $32 bln 2y notes.
·
Fed
Speak: Fed Governor Tarullo
gives "A View From the Fed" (10:10).
Currencies
Dollar Flat Amid Quiet Trade: 10-yr:
-05/32..2.747%..USD/JPY: 102.48..EUR/USD: 1.3735
·
The Dollar Index hovers
little changed near 80.20 as a quiet session nears the final hour of trade. Click here to see a daily Dollar
Index chart.
·
Action has spent most of
the day locked in a 20 cent (80.15-80.35) after an early test of 80.40/80.50
resistance failed.
·
EURUSD is flat @ 1.3735 as trade lingers near the 2014
highs. The pair has tested the 1.3775 level for the past week, but remains
unable to breakout to its best levels of the year. Tomorrow, the European Union
will release its latest economic forecasts.
·
GBPUSD is +45 pips @ 1.6655 as buyers take
control for the first time in six sessions. Today's bid comes after support
in the 1.6600 region held. Britain's BBA Mortgage Approvals and CBI Realized
Sales are due out tomorrow.
·
USDCHF is +5 pips @ .8885 amid another uneventful
trade. Action has pressed .8860 support for the past week, but the level has
held strong as buyers emerge in defense of the December lows. A move below
.8840 would drop action to levels last seen in November 2011.
·
USDJPY is flat @ 102.50 as trade holds near the
February highs. Today's action has been confined to a 20 pip range during U.S.
hours amid a lack of tradable news and data out of both Japan and the
U.S.
·
AUDUSD is +70 pips @ .9040 as trade lingers just off
the highs. The hard currency survived an early test of .8950 support, and is
now contending with its best close since December 11. Today's
strength comes despite more signs of a slowdown in China as home prices
saw their gains slow for the first time in 14 months.
·
USDCAD is -45 pips @ 1.1060 as today's selling
has ended the pair's three-day win streak. Support in the 1.0950 area moves
back into focus.
Jason's Commentaries
The market rallied last night with S&P500 and Nasdaq registering new highs! I certainly did not see that coming so soon. However, with the Nasdaq gaining so much strength, Russells are already catching up with the highs already. Last night market started with a bullish start. Internals were slightly divergent at the point of time. However, by mid day, the market wasn't able to sustain the highs and continued dropping till the closing bell. Volumes were quite mild at 706.2m shares traded on the NYSE. Internals clearly favours the bulls. VIX dropped to 14.23 by closing bell. After the drop, S&P500 closed below the previous high. Only Nasdaq was able to sustain the fresh high and Energy was the strongest gainer of 1.5% followed by Financials and Healthcare of 0.75% and 0.76% respectively. However, I am doubtful of the bullish strength as it's only a few key components rallying that sparked the fresh high. I'm still gonna stick to my stance that it will be sideways and volatile for a while before a directional bias is clear. Stay safe!
Market Call: DOWN
Date: 25 Feb 2014
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