7 March 2014 AMC - Employment numbers confused the market

7 March 2014 AMC - Market mixed as employment sentiments mixed

Market Summary 

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

·         UK's FTSE: -1.1%

·         Germany's DAX: -2.0%

·         France's CAC: -1.2%

·         Spain's IBEX: -1.4%

·         Portugal's PSI: -0.5%

·         Italy's MIB Index: -1.0%

·         Irish Ovrl Index: -1.7%

·         Greece ATHEX Composite: + 1.7%

Before Market Opens 

S&P futures vs fair value: +13.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50.
The S&P 500 futures trade 13 points above fair value following a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report.

Asian markets finished on a mixed note. In China, Chaori Solar failed to make its bond payment, marking the "first" domestic corporate bond default. Interestingly, SHIBOR eased significantly with the two-week reading sliding 71 basis points to 3.052%. Elsewhere, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens testified in Sydney and suggested the Australian dollar is still overvalued.

Regional data of note was limited to Japan's Leading Index, which ticked up to 112.2 from 111.7 (112.4 expected). 

·         Japan's Nikkei gained 0.9%, climbing to its best level in five weeks. Early yen weakness provided a lift as Fanuc added 1.8% and Mazda Motor tacked on 2.7%. 

·         Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.2% amid a choppy trade. Notable was the 4.6% gain in shares of Sinopec, which continues to be bid up ahead of a potential sale of a stake in its retail business. 

·         China's Shanghai Composite shed 0.1%. Property developers underperformed as Gree Real Estate fell 3.8% and China Vanke edged down 0.7%. 

Major European indices hover near their flat lines. Participants received several economic data points. Germany's Industrial Production rose 0.8% month-over-month (0.7% expected, 0.1% prior) while the Wholesale Price Index slipped 0.1% month-over-month (-0.2% consensus, 0.3% prior). French trade deficit widened to EUR5.70 billion from EUR5.20 billion (expected deficit of EUR4.60 billion) while the government budget deficit narrowed to EUR12.70 billion from EUR74.90 billion (expected deficit of EUR70.00 billion). Italy's PPI slipped 0.2% month-over-month (-0.1% expected, -0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.5% (-1.6% consensus, -1.8% previous). Swiss CPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (0.2% expected, -0.3% prior) while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.2%, as expected.

Among news of note, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to yesterday's comments from President Obama, saying Russia can't ignore "calls for help" from Russian speakers living in Ukraine. 

·         Germany's DAX is flat. Health care names outperform with Fresenius Medical Care and Merck both up near 1.0%. On the downside, Commerzbank trades lower by 0.8%. 

·         Great Britain's FTSE trades up 0.2% with insurer Aviva in the lead. The stock is higher by 3.3%. Miners lag with Anglo American, Antofagasta, Glencore Xstrata, and Rio Tinto down between 1.9% and 2.9%. 

·         France's CAC is higher by 0.3% with growth-sensitive names in the lead. Alstom and Technip hold respective gains of 3.1% and 2.0%. Airbus Group is among the laggards, down 2.2%.

Asia

·         Markets finished mixed across Asia. 

·         China's Chaori Solar failed to make its bond payment, marking the "first" corporate bond default. Interestingly, SHIBOR eased significantly with the 2W reading sliding 71bps to 3.052%. 

·         Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens testified in Sydney, and suggested the Australian dollar is still overvalued. 

·         Malaysia's trade surplus narrowed to MYR6.4 bln (MYR9.5 bln previous). 

·         Taiwan's trade surplus shrank to TWD47.6 bln (TWD89.1 bln previous). 

·         Japan's Nikkei (+0.9%) climbed to its best level in five weeks.

·         Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.2%) and China's Shanghai Composite (-0.1%) ended little changed. 

·         India's Sensex (+1.9%) rallied to a record-high close. 

·         Australia's ASX (+0.3%) finished at its best level in five years.

Market Internals

Market Internals -Technical-
The Dow closed up 31 (+0.19%) at 16452, the S&P 500 closed up 1 (+0.05%) at 1878, and the Nasdaq closed down 16 (-0.37%) at 4336. Action came on slightly above average volume (NYSE 709 mln vs. avg. of 684; NASDAQ 2037 mln vs. avg. of 1904), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 1333/1794, NASDAQ 1277/1325) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 200/9, NASDAQ 166/9).

Relative Strength: 
Volatility-VXX +2.16%, Vietnam-VNM +1.58%, Greece-GREK +1.34%, Regional Banks-KRE +1.1%, Coffee-JO +0.88%, Retail-XRT +0.81%, Banks-KBE +0.8%, Swiss Franc-FXF +0.34%, Chinese Yuan-CYB +0.2%, New Zealand-ENZL +0.05%.

Relative Weakness: 
Copper-JJC -4.13%, Copper Miners-COPX -3.19%, Silver Miners-SIL -2.91%, Silver-SLV -2.81%, Base Metals-DBB -2.75%, Chile-ECH -2.55%, Turkey-TUR -2.28%, Latin America 40-ILF -2.27%, Malaysia-EWM -1.6%, Peru-EPU -1.6%.

Leaders and Laggards

 

Technical Updates

Commentaries 

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Upbeat Week on Mixed Note
The stock market finished an upbeat week on a mixed note. The S&P 500 added just under a point, holding its weekly gain at 1.0% while the Nasdaq lost 0.4%.

The major averages began the day on an upbeat note, but relinquished their opening gains during the first 90 minutes of action. The early sentiment was boosted by a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for February (175K versus Briefing.com consensus 163K), but a closer look into the report suggested that the weather excuse, which has been commonplace for the past several weeks, may have been overused in justifying some of the disappointing economic data received in recent weeks.

Stocks retreated from their opening highs with the Nasdaq pacing the slide. Specifically, biotechnology underperformed for the second day in a row, which fueled much of the Nasdaq weakness. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 259.40, -1.74) lost 0.7% after being down as much as 2.6% at the start of the session. The biotech ETF posted a 1.9% decline for the week, but remains up 14.2% in 2014.

Although biotechnology was able to climb off its lows, the rebound coincided with selling in the traditional technology sector (-0.3%). As a result, the Nasdaq was pressured throughout the day.

Even though heavily-weighted sectors like technology and health care (-0.2%) weighed on the broader market, the S&P 500 held up relatively well thanks to the relative strength of the financial sector (+0.5%), which continued its recent outperformance. The influential sector finished the week with a gain of 3.0%.

Elsewhere among cyclical groups, energy (+0.4%) and industrials (+0.3%) outperformed while consumer discretionary (-0.1%) and materials (-0.5%) lagged. The energy sector posted a modest gain as crude oil rose 1.0% to $102.54/bbl. Despite today's increase, the energy space remains the weakest cyclical group of the year, down 1.8%.

Industrials, meanwhile, drew strength from transports. The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 0.4% after marking a fresh intraday record high at 7627.44.

Despite the continued uncertainty surrounding the situation in Ukraine, stocks climbed into the close, suggesting participants remained hopeful that a worst case scenario would be avoided. The sentiment was a bit different in Europe where major regional indices finished on their lows after a Gazprom spokesman said the company could stop delivering natural gas to Ukraine since the country is behind on its payments. The news rattled the region considering Gazprom is a major supplier to the entire European continent and supply disruptions could affect other economies.

The Treasury market, however, did not reflect a flight to safety as the 10-yr note finished in the red with its yield up five basis points at 2.79%.

Participation was a bit below average as 710 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

Taking a look at economic data: 

·         Nonfarm payrolls added 175,000 jobs in February after adding an upwardly revised 129,000 (from 113,000) in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 163,000. Private payrolls were a little lighter, up 162,000 in February after adding 145,000 in January. The consensus expected private payrolls to increase by 170,000. Over the last several weeks, economists have pointed toward the winter weather as the reason for the recent economic slowdown. The above consensus result in the February employment report refutes that theory. Sectors that are normally impacted by weather events, such as construction of buildings (+100), reported positive payroll gains. These sectors should have seen a sizable pullback if weather was the root cause of the economic malaise. 

·         The U.S. trade deficit widened in January to $39.10 billion from an upwardly revised $39.00 billion (from $38.7 billion) in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected the trade deficit to fall to $37.30 billion. The goods deficit rose to $59.30 billion from $58.70 billion, a gain of $0.70 billion. The services surplus increased by $0.50 billion in January to $20.20 billion. Exports increased 0.6% in January to $192.50 billion. Almost all of the increase can be attributed to a $1.80 billion increase in exports of nonmonetary gold and a $0.20 billion increase in artwork sales. 

·         Consumer credit increased by $13.70 billion in January after increasing a downwardly revised $15.90 billion (from $18.80 billion) in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected consumer credit to increase by $11.80 billion in January. 

There is no economic data on Monday's schedule. 

·         Nasdaq Composite +3.8% YTD 

·         Russell 2000 +3.8% YTD 

·         S&P 500 +1.6% YTD 

·         Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.8% YTD 

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Copper fell 4.2% today and was the worst performing commodity on the days after news of China's "first" corporate bond default; Copper is now at a 7-month low

·         Precious metals took a tumble today as the dollar index rose on better-than-anticipated U.S. jobs data. February nonfarm payrolls surpassed estimates, coming in at 175K vs the Briefing.com consensus of 163K. Apr gold brushed a session low of $1326.60 per ounce moments before equity markets opened and eventually settled with a 1.0% loss at $1337.80 per ounce. Today's weakness cut gains for the week to 1.2%. 

·         May silver slid to a session low of $20.75 per ounce after trading as high as $21.45 per ounce in morning pit trade. Unable to gain momentum, it settled 3.1% lower at $20.92 per ounce, booking a loss of 1.4% for the week.

·         May copper fell over 4% today following news that China, the largest importer of copper in the world, saw its "first" corporate bond default, with Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy unable to pay its debt in full today. After steadily trending lower since the overnight session, copper settled at $3.08 per pound, its lowest level since July 2013.

·         Apr crude oil, on the other hand, got a boost from the upbeat jobs report. The energy component rose from its session low of $101.81 per barrel and settled with a 1.0% gain at $102.54 per barrel, just four cents below last Friday's closing price. 

·         April natural gas chopped around in negative territory. It brushed a session low of $4.57 per MMBtu in late afternoon pit trade and settled 0.9% lower at $4.62 per MMBtu, or unchanged for the week.

COMEX Metals Closing Prices

  Apr gold fell $13.90 to $1337.80/oz 

·         Gold tumbled from its session high of $1352.10 as the dollar index rose on better-than-anticipated U.S. jobs data. February nonfarm payrolls surpassed estimates, coming in at 175K vs the Briefing.com consensus of 163K. The yellow metal brushed a session low of $1326.60 moments before equity markets opened and eventually settled with a 1.0% loss. Today's weakness cut gains for the week to 1.2%.

  May silver fell $0.66 to $20.92/oz 

·         Silver was also under pressure following the jobs report. It slid to a session low of $20.75 after trading as high as $21.45 in early morning pit trade. Unable to gain momentum, it settled 3.1% lower, booking a loss of 1.4% for the week. 

  May copper fell 14 cents to $3.08/lbs 

·         Copper fell over 4% today following news that China, the largest importer of copper in the world, saw its "first" corporate bond default, with Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy unable to pay its debt in full today. After steadily trending lower since the overnight session, copper settled at its lowest level since July 2013.

CBOT Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices

·         May corn fell 4 cents to $4.87/bushel 

·         May wheat rose 6 cents to $6.53/bushel 

·         May soybeans rose 21 cents to $14.59/bushel 

·         Apr ethanol fell 4 cents to $2.30/gallon 

·         May sugar (#16 (U.S.)) rose 0.07 of a penny to 22.15 cents/lbs

NYMEX Energy Closing Prices

  Apr crude oil rose $1.00 to $102.54/barrel 

·         Crude oil traded higher today, getting a boost from upbeat U.S. jobs data. February nonfarm payrolls surpassed estimates, coming in at 175K vs the Briefing.com consensus of 163K. The energy component rose from its session low of $101.81 and settled with a 1.0% gain, just four cents below last Friday's closing price. 

  Apr natural gas fell 4 cents to $4.62/MMBtu 

·         Natural gas, on the other hand, chopped around in negative territory. It brushed a session low of $4.57 in late afternoon pit trade and settled 0.9% lower, or unchanged for the week. 

  Apr heating oil rose 3 cents to $3.01/gallon 

  Apr RBOB rose 3 cents to $2.97 /gallon

Treasuries

Treasuries Endure Week of Selling: 10-yr: -12/32..2.788%..USD/JPY: 103.28..EUR/USD: 1.3868
The Week in Review

·         Treasuries endured heavy selling this week. Click here to see an intraweek yields chart.

·         Friday's nonfarm payroll report (175K actual v. 163K expected) was the standout among this week's data with construction spending (0.1% actual v. -0.1% expected), personal spending (0.4% actual v. 0.1% expected) and the ISM Index (53.2 actual v. 51.6 expected) also topping estimates.

·         The jobs report was not all roses as nonfarm private payrolls (162K actual v. 170K expected) missed and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7% (6.6% previous).

·         Factory orders (-0.7% actual v. -0.5% expected), ISM Services (51.6 actual v. 53.5 expected), productivity-rev. (1.8% actual v. 2.5% expected), and the trade balance (-$39.1B actual v. -$37.3B expected) all missed estimates

·         The Fed's Beige Book suggested the economy saw modest to moderate expansion across most districts. Winter weather was the scapegoat in those regions that contracted. 

·         Traders remain uneasy going into the weekend in regards to the developments in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested he is not looking to annex Crimea. However, a referendum on the topic is likely to take place sometime next week. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has stated Crimea is, and will always be, part of Ukraine.  

·         This week's selling was pretty well dispersed along the curve with yields 5y on up tacking on between 16-18bps.

·         Yields tested multi-month lows on Monday, but selling over the course of the week had them at one and a half month highs at Friday's cash close.

·         The 5y rallied +17bps, ending the week @ 1.640%. The yield broke out of its 1.450%/1.550% range that had been in place since the beginning of February, and is nearing a test of the key 1.750%/1.800% area.

·         The 10y jumped +18bps over the course of the week, closing @ 2.790%. Monday's session produced the first close below the 200 dma since early May, when the Fed first discussed the possibility of tapering. Resistance in the 2.850% area will be watched into next week.

·         Selling at the long end caused a +16bp jump in the 30y. The 3.750% level is now in focus as both the 50 and 100 dma aid resistance in the area. 

·         Significant steepening took hold along the curve with the 2-10-yr spread widening to 242.5bps.  

The Week Ahead 

·         There is no data on Monday. Philly's Plosser travels to Paris, France to take part in a "Central Bankers" discussion (5:45). Chicago's Evans will discuss economic conditions and monetary policy (12:40). 

·         Tuesday's data is limited to wholesale inventories (10). Treasury will auction $30 bln 3y notes. 

·         Wednesday's data includes the weekly MBA Mortgage Index (7) and the Treasury budget (14). Treasury will reopen $21 bln 10y notes. 

·         Data picks up on Thursday with initial and continuing claims, retail sales, import/export prices (8:30), and business inventories (10). Treasury will hold a $13 bln 30y bond reopening.

·         Data for the week concludes on Friday with PPI (8:30) and Michigan Sentiment (9:55). Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer gives opening remarks to a dinner event at Stanford University (19:45). The International Research Forum on Monetary Policy's two-day conference begins.

On other news.... 

News

·         Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) wants to re position Hollister chain, according to reports

·         Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) proposes settlement with Casablanca Capital; offer of additional Board seats rejected by Casablanca Capital

·         Corning (GLW) may move Gorilla Glass production to Korea, according to reports

·         Carl Icahn said his fight with eBay's (EBAY) Paypal is just getting started, according to reports

·         Pfizer (PFE) initiates nationwide voluntary recall of two lots of Effexor XR due to possible presence of Tikosyn capsules

·         Safeway (SWY) and Albertsons announce definitive merger agreement: Safeway shareholders expected to receive total value estimated at $40 per share

·         Bloomberg discusses that the UKraine situation may increase LNG prices

Currencies

Dollar Erases Pre-Nonfarm Payroll Losses, Hovers Little Changed: 10-yr: -11/32..2.783%..USD/JPY: 103.25..EUR/USD: 1.3873

·         The Dollar Index hovers little changed as trade drifts near 79.70. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.

·         Early selling ahead of the nonfarm payroll report dropped the Index to a four-month low of 79.45 , but the strong reading brought buyers out of the woodwork, allowing trade to retake the flat line. 

·         EURUSD is +15 pips @ 1.3875 as trade remains on track to close at its best level since the fall of 2011. An early bid catapulted the single currency above the 1.3900 level for the first time since October 2011, but trade gave up the majority of those gains in the aftermath of the U.S. jobs report. The 1.3800 area sets up as a key level to watch. Eurozone data set for Monday is limited to French industrial production. 

·         GBPUSD is -10 pips @ 1.6730 as action continues to probe its best levels since November 2009. Action over much of the past month has taken place in the 1.6600/1.6800 region, but so far neither bulls nor bears have been able to wrestle away control. This area will be monitored closely in the week ahead. 

·         USDCHF is -30 pips @ .8775 as trade readies for its worst close since November 2011. Interestingly, the pair has not seen the same snapback as the euro despite its close tie to the single currency as a result of the Swiss National Bank's EURCHF floor. Switzerland's retail sales will be released Monday. 

·         USDJPY is +25 pips @ 103.30 as buyers remain in control for a fourth session. The four-day advance has busted the pair out of the 101.50/102.50 range that had been in place since the beginning of February, and has trade action on track for its first close above the 50 dma in one and a half months. Near-term resistance now rests in the 104.00 region. Japan's current account balance and Final GDP will cross the wires Sunday evening. 

·         AUDUSD is -25 pips @ .9065 as action presses lower for the first time in five days. Early strength ran the hard currency to a three-month high near .9135, but the gains were not able to hold as sellers emerged in defense of the 200 dma. Action has since slipped back below the 100 dma, and is now testing the key .9050 area. China's CPI, PPI, and trade balance are due out tonight. 

·         USDCAD is +110 pips @ 1.1095 as today's advance has erased two days of losses. The pair held little changed into the U.S. and Canadian jobs report before the strong U.S. reading and weak Canadian numbers sparked a buying frenzy. Canada's empoloyment change posted a surprise -7.0K (+16.9K expected) as the unemployment rate held steady at 7.0%. The 1.1150 area is now in focus.

Weekly Analysis
Week 1



Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries


Week in Review: Stocks Climb Despite Persistent Geopolitical Concerns

The stock market began the trading week on a defensive note after tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.9%) paced the decline while the S&P 500 lost 0.8% with all ten sectors ending in the red. Over the weekend, Russian troops increased their presence around several key strategic points located in the Crimean peninsula in Southern Ukraine. The troop deployment was authorized by the Russian parliament while Ukrainian authorities described the actions as an ‘invasion.' With plenty of uncertainty abound, equities sold off broadly while traditional safe-haven assets received a bid. Treasuries settled on their highs with the benchmark 10-yr yield down five basis points at 2.60% while the Dollar Index (80.08, +0.39) gained 0.5%. Commodities saw interest with crude oil climbing 2.4% to $105.00/bbl while gold futures settled higher by 2.2% at $1350.40/ozt. In turn, the strength in gold gave a boost to miners, sending the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 26.18, -0.61) higher by 1.6%.

Equity indices enjoyed a broad-based rally on Tuesday that sent the S&P 500 (+1.5%) and the Russell 2000 (+2.5%) to new record closing highs. Stocks surged out the gate after index futures received a considerable bid around 1:00AM ET. The overnight strength came about after it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin called back the troops that were conducting exercises on the country's border with Ukraine. Mr. Putin commented on the tense situation, saying Russia is not aiming to annex the Crimean peninsula and that military force is a choice of last resort. The overnight developments were viewed positively by market participants who rushed into risk while shedding some of the safe-haven assets that were in strong demand on Monday. On that note, Treasuries spent the entire session in a steady retreat with the 10-yr yield ending at its session high (+9 bps at 2.69%); gold futures fell 0.9% to $1337.80/ozt; and crude oil lost 1.6%, ending at $103.34/bbl. The risk rally translated into solid gains for all ten sectors. The three largest S&P 500 groups—financials (+2.0%), technology (+1.5%), and health care (+1.9%)—paced the advance while most of the remaining groups added at least 1.0% with utilities (+0.8%) as the lone exception.

On Wednesday, the major averages posted modest losses after spending the entire session inside narrow ranges. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% while the S&P 500 shed less than a point. Individual sectors were split right down the middle for the entire trading day with five groups posting gains while the other five registered losses. The financial sector (+0.7%) took the lead shortly after the open and never relinquished its standing as top components rallied notably.

The stock market ended the Thursday session on a mixed note ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) and S&P 500 (+0.2%) posted modest gains while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) lagged throughout the session. Biotech pressured the Nasdaq as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF ended near its session low, down 2.7%. Also exerting pressure on the Nasdaq was the technology sector, which ended flat.

Next Week In View





Economic Commentaries

Economic Summary: NFP top expectations; Unemployment rate ticks slightly higher; Trade defacit larger than expected
Economic Data Summary:

·         February Nonfarm Payrolls 175K vs Briefing.com consensus of 163K; January was 113K

·         February Nonfarm Private Payrolls 162K vs Briefing.com consensus of 170K; January was 142K

o    .Over the last several weeks, economists have pointed toward the winter weather as the reason for the recent economic slowdown. The above consensus result in the February employment report refutes that theory. Sectors that are normally impacted by weather events, such as construction of buildings (+100), reported positive payroll gains. These sectors should have seen a sizable pullback if weather was the root cause of the economic malaise. In reality, the overall February payroll increase was in-line with what was expected given the current range-bound initial claims level. With initial claims at 330,000 -- 340,000, payrolls should increase in the neighborhood of 185,000. That is not to say that the employment report was impressive or strong. Average hourly earnings increased a healthy 0.4% in February after increasing 0.2% in January. 

·         February Unemployment Rate 6.7% vs Briefing.com consensus of 6.6%; January was 6.6%

·         February Hourly Earnings 0.4% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.2%; January was 0.2%

·         February Average Workweek 34.2 vs Briefing.com consensus of 34.4; January was 34.4

·         January Trade Balance -$39.1 bln vs Briefing.com consensus of -$37.3 bln; December was -$38.7 bln

o    . The increase in the trade deficit could have been much worse. Exports increased 0.6% in January to $192.5 bln. Almost all of the increase can be attributed to a $1.8 bln increase in exports of nonmonetary gold and a $0.2 bln increase in artwork sales. Neither of those components are sustainable, and if they were at normal levels exports would have fallen in January. Normal areas of growth, such as foodstuffs (-$0.8 bln) and autos (-$0.2), were significantly weaker in January. Imports also increased by 0.6% in January, from $230.3 bln in December to $231.6 bln. Much of the gain was due to stronger demand for petroleum products.

Upcoming Economic Data:

·         January Consumer Credit due out Friday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of $11.8 bln; December was $18.8 bln)

Other International Events of Interest

·         Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens testified in Sydney, and suggested the Australian dollar is still overvalued. 

·         Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk suggested Crimea is, and will always be, part of Ukraine

·         German industrial production (0.8% MoM actual v. 0.8% MoM expected) slightly outpaced estimates

Jason's Commentaries

Non-farm payrolls were much better than expected, having more than 170k jobs created with 155k jobs expected. However, what made the market puzzled is the unemployment rate actually went up higher. That caused some sort of confusion in the market on Friday. As we're are at the high and the employment numbers failed to provide a catalyst for any big movements, the market will be looking at other areas to provide a catalyst. Looking ahead of the economic report, we're not going to have much big reports coming out this week.

Friday's trading session was very very volatile. Started higher and washed off its gains within the first 30mins. Then the market started volatile through the rest of the session. Volumes were at 683.2m shares traded on the NYSE and internals were all showing mixed sentiments. Financials and the industrials were the biggest gainers in the session. However the Material and Tech had as much drag as the gains which caused such mixed sentiments in the market.

On the technical perspective, right now the market may stalled for a while. As Russells and Nasdaq has broken into the new highs already, I'm expecting these 2 indices to continue to rally in the mid term. In the short term wise, I am expecting some small retracement to come.

Market Call: FLAT

Date: 10 Mar 2014