16 April 2014 AMC- Market rallied again as Yellen speaks

16 April 2014 AMC- Market rallied again as Yellen speaks

Market Summary 

European Markets Closing Prices

European markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:

·         UK's FTSE: + 0.7%

·         Germany's DAX: + 1.6%

·         France's CAC: + 1.4%

·         Spain's IBEX: + 1.6%

·         Portugal's PSI: + 2.2%

·         Italy's MIB Index: + 3.4%

·         Irish Ovrl Index: + 1.1%

·         Greece ATHEX Composite: + 2.6%

Before Market Opens

S&P futures vs fair value: +10.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +25.00.
The S&P 500 futures trade ten points above fair value.

Markets across Asia ended mostly higher, buoyed by yesterday's Nikkei report suggesting Japan is set to downgrade its economic assessment in the upcoming April 17. If a downgrade were to occur, it would raise expectations the central bank would boost its QE program; however, it should be noted Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke overnight, indicating the Japanese economy is strengthening and wage inflation is beginning to take hold.

Data out of China showed a GDP beat in the year-over-year reading (7.4% versus expected 7.3%), while the quarter-over-quarter reading increased 1.4% (consensus 1.5%). Also of note, Industrial Production (8.8% year-over-year versus expected 9.1%) and Fixed Income Investment (17.6% year-over-year versus expected 18.1%) both missed, while Retail Sales beat (12.2% versus expected 12.1%). 

·         Japan's Nikkei surged 3.0% off six-month lows. Heavyweight Softbank provided support, soaring 8.5% in response to the strong quarterly results from its affiliate Alibaba Group.

·         Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.1%, holding its 100-day moving average. Exporter Li & Fung outperformed, climbing 1.0%. 

·         China's Shanghai Composite ticked up 0.2% and held both its 100- and 200-day moving averages. Brokerage shares continued to see gains with Industrial Securities rising 1.3%.

Major European indices trade higher across the board with Italy's MIB (+2.4%) pacing the rally. Participants received several data points this morning. Eurozone current account surplus narrowed to EUR21.90 billion from EUR25.40 billion (expected EUR22.30 billion). CPI increased 0.9% month-over-month (consensus 1.0%, prior 0.3%), while the annualized reading rose 0.5%, as expected. Also of note, core CPI increased 0.7% year-over-year (expected 0.8%, prior 1.0%). Elsewhere, Great Britain's Claimant Count decreased 30,400 (expected -30,000, previous -37,000) and the Unemployment rate ticked down to 6.9% from 7.1% (expected 7.1%). Separately, Average Earnings Index + Bonus rose 1.7% (expected 1.8%, prior 1.4%). Also of note, Italy's trade surplus expanded to EUR2.62 billion from EUR360 million (consensus EUR1.27 billion). 

·         Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.5% with consumer names in the lead. Burberry, ITV, and Sports Direct International hold gains between 2.6% and 6.3%. Sports Direct is the top performer of the bunch after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch hiked its price target for the stock. 

·         In France, the CAC trades up 1.0%. Financials AXA and Credit Agricole are among the leaders, up 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively. Danone underperforms with a loss of 0.6%. 

·         Germany's DAX holds an advance of 1.1%. Exporters BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen are contributing to the strength with gains between 1.0% and 1.9%. Adidas is the weakest index component, down 0.2%. 

·         Italy's MIB trades higher by 2.4% Banca Popolare di Milano, Mediobanca, and UniCredit hold gains between 3.4% and 4.1%.

U.S. Equities

·         Equity futures point to strong gains at the open as trade continues its sharp rebound off Monday's lows

·         S&P futures have rallied +43 handles since the final hour of Monday's session

·         Today's bid has run S&P futures back above the 50 dma

·         Financials remain in focus after Bank of America (BAC) was the latest mega bank to report. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will report ahead of tomorrow's open 

·         MBA Mortgage Index (4.3% actual v. -1.6% previous)

·         Housing Starts (946K actual v. 955K expected)

·         Building Permits (990K actual v. 1003K expected)

o    S&P Futures +8 @ 1848

o    Dow Futures +72 @ 16,277

o    Nasdaq Futures +15 @ 3506

Asia

·         Markets across Asia ended mostly higher, buoyed by yesterday's Nikkei report suggesting Japan is set to downgrade its economic assessment. However, it should be noted Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda spoke overnight, indicating the Japanese economy is strengthening and wage inflation is beginning to take hold

·         Data out of China showed GDP printed a better than expected 7.4% (7.3% expected) while industrial production (8.8% YoY actual v. 9.1% YoY expected) and fixed income investment (17.6% YTDoY actual v. 18.1% YTDoY expected) both missed

·         Japan's Nikkei (+3.0%) surged off six-month lows

·         Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.1%) held its 100 dma

·         China's Shanghai Composite (+0.2%) held both its 100 and 200 dma

·         India's Sensex (-0.9%) was a laggard as yesterday's hotter than anticipated inflation data weighed

·         Australia's ASX (+0.6%) gained for a second day

Market Internals

Market Internals
The Nasdaq closed up 52 (+1.29%) at 4086, the S&P 500 closed up 19 (+1.05%) at 1862, and the Dow closed up 162 (+1.00%) at 16425. Action came on below average volume (NYSE 660 mln vs. avg. of 724; NASDAQ 1726 mln vs. avg. of 2021), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 2464/661, NASDAQ 1878/760) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 105/16, NASDAQ 32/30).

Relative Strength: 
Biotechnology-XBI +2.89%, Clean Energy-PBW +2.61%, Lithium-LIT +2.51%, Broker-Dealers-IAI +2.44%, Biotechnology-IBB +2.38%, Russia-RSX +2.26%, Eastern Europe-ESR +2.04%, Japan-EWJ +1.92%, Indonesia-IDX +1.7%, Chile-ECH +1.61%.

Relative Weakness: 
Volatility-VXX -3.57%, Coffee-JO -2.57%, Silver Miners-SIL -1.34%, Corn-CORN -0.92%, Gold Miners-GDX -0.92%, Japanese Yen-FXY -0.46%, Canadian Dollar-FXC -0.4%, Poland-EPOL -0.37%, India-INP -0.28%, Swiss Franc-FXF -0.12%.

Leaders and Laggards

Technical Updates

Briefing's Commentaries 

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Post Third Day of Consecutive Gains
The stock market finished the Wednesday session on an upbeat note with the Nasdaq (+1.3%) ending in the lead. The S&P 500 settled higher by 1.1% with all ten sectors posting gains.

The benchmark index spent the entire trading day in the green, rallying to new highs during the last hour of action. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, meanwhile, briefly dipped into the red during morning action, but was able to recover swiftly.

Stocks began the trading day with modest gains after the overnight session featured the release of China's Q1 GDP. Although the report could be classified as better-than-feared, it did not necessarily produce a clear-cut signal as the year-over-year reading of 7.4% beat estimates (7.3%), while the quarter-over-quarter growth of 1.4% was just below expectations (1.5%).

When the opening bell rang at the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow and S&P 500 maintained relatively narrow ranges through the first two hours of action, while the Nasdaq slipped below its flat line due to weakness among chipmakers. The largest industry player, Intel (INTC 26.93, +0.16), reported a slim earnings beat, but other semiconductor names struggled. The broader PHLX Semiconductor Index shed 0.2%.

Even though chipmakers knocked the Nasdaq into the red, the index was able to overcome that weakness due to the relative strength of biotechnology and recently-battered momentum names. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 222.79, +5.18) jumped 2.4%, ending just above its 200-day moving average (219.97) after struggling with that level for the past week.

Interestingly, the broader health care (+0.6%) sector did not follow biotech's lead as several large components weighed. UnitedHealth (UNH 78.19, -1.32) contributed to the underperformance, falling 1.7% after receiving a downgrade from Citigroup ahead of its earnings report, which will be released ahead of tomorrow's opening bell.

Elsewhere among influential sectors, consumer discretionary (+1.4%), energy (+1.2%), and industrials (+1.5%) provided support to the broader market, while financials (+0.9%) lagged. The economically-sensitive sector was pressured by Bank of America (BAC 16.13, -0.26), which lost 1.6% after missing bottom-line estimates. The financial sector will be in focus once again tomorrow with the market digesting quarterly results from American Express (AXP 87.40, +1.36), Goldman Sachs (GS 157.22, +2.30), and Morgan Stanley (MS 29.89, +0.34).

On the countercyclical side, health care (+0.6%) ended at the bottom of the leaderboard, while consumer staples (+0.9%), telecom services (+0.9%), and utilities (+0.8%) had some difficulty keeping up with the broader market.

Treasuries settled modestly lower following a range bound session. The benchmark 10-yr yield ticked up one basis point to 2.64%.

Participation was below average as 661 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

Reviewing today's data: 

·         Housing starts increased 2.4% in March to 946,000 from an upwardly revised 920,000 in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected 955,000 new starts. Overall, the residential construction report was encouraging, but did not provide any evidence that the weakness in January and February was weather related. Starts remained well below 1.00 million, which was the average in the fourth quarter. Had weather factored into the weakness, then there should have been a much stronger bounce from delayed starts. Single-family construction, which languished below 600,000 in January and February, rebounded 6.0% to 635,000. That was more in-line with the trends over the last 12 months. Multifamily starts fell 3.1% to 311,000 in March from 321,000 in February. That was a typical decline from a normally volatile sector. 

·         Industrial production increased 0.7% in March after increasing an upwardly revised 1.2% (from 0.6%) in February. The Briefing.com consensus expected industrial production to increase 0.5%. Manufacturing production increased 0.5% in March, down from an upwardly revised 1.4% (from 0.9%) in February. The March gain was in-line with the ISM production index. Despite a 0.8% decline in motor vehicles and parts production, durable goods manufacturing production increased 0.5%. Nondurable goods manufacturing production increased 0.7%, which was mostly the result of a 3.3% increase in petroleum and coal products production. 

Tomorrow, weekly initial claims (Briefing.com consensus 312K) will be reported at 8:30 ET and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for April (consensus 8.6) will be released at 10:00 ET. 

·         S&P 500 +0.8% YTD 

·         Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.9% YTD 

·         Nasdaq Composite -2.2% YTD

·         Russell 2000 -2.6% YTD

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Gold Rise 0.3%, Closes Above $1300/Oz, Crude Gains 5 Cents

·         June gold traded in positive territory for most of today's pit session. Prices advanced as high as $1307.10 per ounce and dipped to a session low of $1297.90 per ounce in mid-morning action. The yellow metal eventually settled with a 0.3% gain at $1303.40 per ounce. 

·         May silver rose to a session high of $19.81 per ounce shortly after floor trade opened. It then chopped around near the $19.60 per ounce level and settled with a 0.8% gain at $19.64 per ounce.

·         May crude oil rose to a session high of $104.82 per barrel in early morning floor trade but slipped into negative territory following inventory data that showed a build of 10.0 mln barrels when a smaller build of 1.8-2.3 mln barrels was anticipated.

·         The energy component managed to inch higher in afternoon action and settled at $103.73 per barrel, or 5 cents above the unchanged line. 

·         May natural gas chopped around in the red today. It touched a session high of $4.57 per MMBtu in early morning action and settled with a 0.9% loss at $4.53 per MMBtu, just above its session low of $4.52 per MMBtu.

COMEX Metals Closing Prices

  June gold rose $3.50 to $1303.40/oz 

·         Gold traded in positive territory for most of today's pit session. Prices advanced as high as $1307.10 and dipped to a session low of $1297.90 in mid-morning action. The yellow metal eventually settled with a 0.3% gain. 

  May silver rose $0.16 to $19.64/oz 

·         Silver rose to a session high of $19.81 shortly after floor trade opened. It then chopped around near the $19.60 level and settled with a 0.8% gain. 

  May copper rose 4 cents to $3.03/lbs

CBOT Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices

·         May corn fell 6 cents to $4.98/bushel 

·         May wheat fell 13 cents to $6.88/bushel 

·         May soybeans rose 17 cents to $15.19/bushel 

·         May ethanol fell 9 cents to $2.17/gallon 

·         July sugar (#16 (U.S.)) rose 0.06 of a penny to 24.40 cents/lbs

NYMEX Energy Closing Prices

  May crude oil rose $0.05 to $103.73/barrel 

·         Crude oil rose to a session high of $104.82 in early morning floor trade but slipped into negative territory following inventory data that showed a build of 10.0 mln barrels when a smaller build of 1.8-2.3 mln barrels was anticipated. The energy component managed to inch higher in afternoon action and settled 5 cents above the unchanged line. 

  May natural gas fell 4 cents to $4.53/MMBtu 

·         Natural gas chopped around in the red today. It touched a session high of $4.57 in early morning action and settled just above its session low of $4.52, booking a loss of 0.9%.

  May heating oil rose 2 cents to $3.01/gallon 

  May RBOB settled unchanged at $3.04/gallon

Treasuries

Curve Flattest Since October 2009: 10-yr: -03/32..2.637%..USD/JPY: 102.24..EUR/USD: 1.3815

·         Treasuries finished mixed amid a choppy trade. Click here to see an intraday yields chart.

·         The complex held small losses into the U.S. cash open before some light buying emerged in response to the disappointing housing starts (946K actual v. 955K expected) and building permits (990K actual v. 1003K expected) data. 

·         Maturities would slip onto their worst levels of the session following the strong industrial production (0.7% actual v. 0.5% expected) and capacity utilization (79.2% actual v. 78.8% expected) numbers, but failed to see follow through selling. 

·         A choppy trade persisted before Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested the central bank remains committed to an accommodative policy and that there is greater chance inflation runs below the Fed's target. 

·         The latest Fed Beige Book indicated "economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report." 

·         Outperformance at the long end saw the 30y shed -0.6bps to 3.454%. The yield on the long bond closed on session lows, and at a level last seen in June. 

·         The 10y edged up +0.9bps to 2.637%. Traders will continue to monitor the 2.600% level over the coming sessions as that level has held up since early February. 

·         The 5y lagged, finishing +3.7bps @ 1.655%. Selling produced a fourth straight rise in yield, and has action moving towards a test of resistance in the 1.660%/1.700% area. 

·         Today's mixed trade flattened the yield curve with 5-30-yr spread tightening to 180bps, which was last seen in October 2009. 

·         Precious metals were firm with gold +$2 @ $1302 and silver +0.13 @ $19.62. 

·         Data: Initial and continuing claims (8:30), and Philly Fed (10).

Next Day In View 

Economic Commentary

Economic Summary: Housing starts miss expectations; IP beats estimates; Yellen reiterates that the Fed is committed to accommodative policy;
Economic Data Summary:

·         Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications 4.3% vs Briefing.com consensus of N/A; Last Week was -1.6%

·         March Housing Starts 946K vs Briefing.com consensus of 955K; February was 907K

·         March Building Permits 990K vs Briefing.com consensus of 1.003 M ; February was 1.018 M

o    Starts remained well below 1.00 mln, which was the average in the fourth quarter. If weather was a factor, then there should have been a much stronger bounce from delayed starts. Single-family construction, which languished below 600,000 in January and February, rebounded 6.0% to 635,000. That is more in-line with the trends over the last 12 months. Multifamily starts fell 3.1% to 311,000 in March from 321,000 in February. That was a typical decline from a normally volatile sector. 

·         March Industrial Production 0.7% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.5%; February was 0.6%

·         March Capacity Utilization 79.2 vs Briefing.com consensus of 78.8%; February was 78.4%

o    The March gain was in-line with the ISM production index. Despite a 0.8% decline in motor vehicles and parts production, durable goods manufacturing production increased 0.5%. Nondurable goods manufacturing production increased 0.7%, which was mostly the result of a 3.3% increase in petroleum and coal products production. Motor vehicle assemblies fell to 11.27 mln SAAR in March from 11.50 mln SAAR in February. Auto assemblies dropped 3.0% to 4.17 mln SAAR and truck assemblies declined 1.3% to 7.11 mln SAAR. 

Fed/Treasury Events Summary:

·         Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke today and made the following comments:

o    "Finally, the FOMC is well aware that inflation could also threaten to rise substantially above 2 percent. At present, I rate the chances of this happening as significantly below the chances of inflation persisting below 2 percent, but we must always be prepared to respond to such unexpected outcomes, which leads us to my third question."

o    Yellen said Fed committed to accommodative policy.

o    Yellen said economic outlook is little changed at this time; notes complication from harsh weather; continued improvement of labor market conditions.

·         Fed's Fisher (voter, hawk) said he comfortable with current inflation rate; will not support policy that pushes rate above 2%

·         Fed's Lockhart (not a voter, dovish) said Q1 softness due to weather; sees pent up demand; sees pick up in GDP.

·         Fed  Beige Book was out today. Key comments include:

o    Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report.

Upcoming Economic Data:

·         Weekly Initial Claims due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 312K; Last Week was 300K)

·         Weekly Continuing Claims due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 2.8 M ; Last Week was 2.776 M )

·         April Philadelphia Fed due out Thursday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of 8.6; March was 9.0)

Other International Events of INterest

·         Data out of China showed GDP printed a better than expected 7.4% (7.3% expected) while industrial production (8.8% YoY actual v. 9.1% YoY expected) and fixed income investment (17.6% YTDoY actual v. 18.1% YTDoY expected) both missed

On other news.... 

Currencies 

Dollar Hovers Little Changed: 10-yr: -03/32..2.637%..USD/JPY: 102.23..EUR/USD: 1.3821

·         The Dollar Index hovers flat near 79.80 amid a mostly uneventful trade. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.

·         Overnight weakness dropped the Index to a session low near 79.65, but trade has erased those losses on the back of the better than expected industrial production and capacity utilization data. 

·         The latest Fed Beige Book crossed the wires at 2pm ET, and suggested "economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report."

·         EURUSD is +10 pips @ 1.3820 as light buying has taken hold following three days of losses. The single currency is higher despite the mostly disappointing data from the region as trade managed to find support at the 1.3800 level. Many traders continue to watch the 1.3850 area as a breakout puts the recent highs in play. Eurozone data is limited to German PPI. 

·         GBPUSD is +70 pips @ 1.6795 as action contends with its best close since November 2009. Sterling has benefitted from the drop in the UK's unemployment rate to 6.9% (7.2% expected, 7.2% previous) as traders continue to price in expectations the Bank of England will be the first major Western central bank to emerge from the crisis. The Bank of England's previous forward guidance had fingered an unemployment rate of 7.0% or below before a rate hike was even considered, but a recent alteration has the central bank now looking at a range of data. 

·         USDCHF is +10 pips @ .8810 as trade has reversed its early losses. Today's bid has action ticking higher for a third straight session, putting .8825 resistance and the 50 dma (.8850) in the cross hairs. 

·         USDJPY is +40 pips @ 102.25 as trade probes the 50 dma. The pair has found a bid on the back of yesterday's Nikkei report that suggested Japan was going to downgrade its economic assessment. That report seemed to fly in the face of comments from BOJ Governor Kuroda, who overnight suggested wage growth was beginning to pick up. Mr. Kuroda will speak in Tokyo this evening. 

·         AUDUSD is +25 pips @ .9380 as after weakness found support near .9350. The hard currency has been helped by the better than expected Chinese GDP data with action holding near its best level in five months. Australia's NAB Business Confidence and new motor vehicle sales are due out tonight. 

·         USDCAD is +35 pips @ 1.1015 after the Bank of Canada held its key rate steady at 1.00%, as expected. The inaction marks the 29th consecutive meeting the central bank has kept its overnight rate at 1.00%, meaning it hasn't taken action since September 2010.Canada's CPI is scheduled for tomorrow.

Jason's Commentaries


As expected, the market rallied went higher last night, in my opinion was a technical bounce. the Nasdaq was the strongest leader last night in the market, gaining 1.29%. The main moving factor was because of Google, Yahoo, Visa, Mastercard and Amazon, all gained more than 2%. However, Google announced its earnings last night as it misses its earnings. Bank of America missed its bottom line estimates. It seems to me that it might be a pricing in to the lousy earnings so far. IBM beat earnings but misses on revenues. I reckon that the sell in may is gonna be really bear this year as the Q1 earnings are starting to suck. On the technical note, I believe the market is likely to stay flat but there is likely to be a moderate profit taking session ahead of the long weekend. Therefore we're likely to end down today with a less than 0.3% loss.  

Market Call: DOWN

Date: 17 April 2014