Monday 13 August 2012

13 August 2012 AMC



13 August 2012
Market Summary



I was right.... but not quite right... Nasdaq broke into the positive region before the closing bell last night and SPX/DOW were able to fight back the bulk of their losses. Not exactly a bearish day... it's more towards a flat day towards the downside... nonetheless... I WAS RIGHT. 



Market Internals






VIX dropped to the lowest in a decade and the volume was the lowest in years. Doesn't that tell you something??? Everyone is sidelined.... Or rather... people have no idea what to do...




Leaders and laggards






Financials are able to fight back losses and tech was held back by Apple and Google, which also lead Nasdaq out of the red. Is there going to be a change of leadership? Is Nasdaq going to continue to lead? That's a important question to ask....



Technical Updates









Still a stalled pattern... However, a hanging man at the top... We're going be looking at the end of trend... the chances of going sideways is quite notable...unless there's some serious catalyst to plummet the market..

Commentaries

Stock Market Update
16:15 ET Dow -38.52 at 13174.54, Nasdaq +1.66 at 3022.52, S&P -1.76 at 1404.11 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equities began today's session on a slightly negative note. After reaching session lows before the European close, stocks staged a slow recovery but were unable to break into positive territory. The S&P 500 ended lower by 0.1%.

Consumer staples were one of the top performing sectors. Within the group, Sysco (SYY 30.14, +1.30) jumped 4.5% after reporting earnings and revenues ahead of expectations.Campbell Soup (CPB 34.35, +1.04) also contributed to strength within the space. The packaged food producer gained 3.1% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from ‘sell' to ‘conviction buy.'

The materials sector was the weakest performer, with the biggest laggards found in metal producers. United States Steel (X 22.86, -0.55) ended lower by 2.4% and Olympic Steel (ZEUS 16.42, -0.41) was down 2.4%. However, paper producers outperformed the rest of the sector. Shares of International Paper (IP 33.94, +1.31) gained 4.0% after Credit Suisse upgraded the company's stock from ‘neutral' to ‘outperform.' Louisiana-Pacific (LPX 12.56, +0.56) rose 4.7% as the stock marked a new 52-week high.

Google (GOOG 660.01, +18.01) advanced 2.8% after the company announced up to 4,000 jobs will be cut from its Motorola Mobility business. Reports also indicated that Google will buy the Frommer's brand from publisher John Wiley & Sons (JW.B 47.41, -0.25). Today's bid put shares of Google at a level not seen since mid-April.

Meanwhile, Yelp (YELP 23.87, -1.98) and TripAdvisor (TRIP 33.52, -1.58) slumped 7.7% and 4.5% respectively on concerns that Google's purchase of Frommer's will increase competition in the travel publishing business.

Sears Holdings (SHLD 54.36, +2.94) surged 5.7% after announcing plans to spin off about 1,200 stores which will be listed under the ticker ‘SHOS.' In addition, a Barron's story published over the weekend suggested that Sears' controlling investor may be engineering a ‘slow-motion liquidation' which could lead to a doubling of the share price.

The volatility index, or the VIX, slid 6.7%, to 13.75. The VIX is currently at levels last seen in June of 2007.

Groupon (GRPN 7.55, +0.11) gained 1.5% ahead of its earnings release after the close. The consensus calls for earnings of $0.03 on revenues of $573.45 million. Shares of the online deal site are down more than 61% from its November 2011 IPO price of $20.00.

With the earnings season drawing to a close, a handful companies have yet to report their earnings. A few notable retailers will headline tomorrow's releases. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 50.54, +0.19) is expected to earn $0.63 on $1.42 billion in revenues while analysts expect Home Depot (52.82, -0.24) to report earnings of $0.98 on revenues of $20.74 billion.

Two notable apparel retailers are also scheduled to report tomorrow morning. Michael Kors (KORS 42.35, +0.03) is expected to earn $0.20 on $367.96 million revenues whileTJX Companies (TJX 44.24, -0.22) is expected to report earnings of $0.55 on revenues of $5.93 billion.

Today's volume was well below average with just over 484 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

Tomorrow's economic data includes retail sales, retail sales ex-auto, PPI, and core PPI, all of which will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. In addition, business inventories will be released at 10 AM ET. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1112/1887. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1068/1363.



After Hours
17:02 ET STS +15.9%, COGO +7.7%, SUMR -22.9%, GRPN -15.2% following earnings/guidance :
Equities began today's session on a slightly negative note. After reaching session lows before the European close, stocks staged a slow recovery but were unable to break into positive territory. The S&P 500 ended lower by 0.1%.
Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: ARRY, WX, IAG, KID, GRPN, IOC, SUMR, ANW
Futures are _ after hours: S&P 500 futures are -0.86 from fair value of 1401.14 and Nasdaq100 futures are +2.40 from fair value of 2726.10.
Tomorrow morning before the open, 2 economic reports are scheduled to be released: 1) Retail Sales (Consensus 0.2%) and Retail Sales ex Auto (Consensus 0.3%), and 2) PPI (Consensus 0.2%) and Core PPI (Consensus 0.2%).

Tomorrow before the open look for the following companies to report: EL, TW, AG, CACH, CTFO, KIOR, AMAP, CEL, DKS, ENG, HD, KITD, SKS, SORL, TJX, VAL, VELT, FLO, KORS

Commodities





Lean hogs and coffee are marketing some significant movements! While Corn and Soy Bean are terribly affected by weather conditions and prices will continue to rise. 

Treasuries 






Only some changes to the 2 year bond, unchanged for the rest of the bonds.

I believe if the core retail sales or the PPI sucked... the day is going to be a downer. Based on stats, retail sales has sucked for quite a while... I'm still bear today...



Market Call: 14 Aug
Date: DOWN

Accuracy: 6/10






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