16 August 2012 AMC

16 August 2012

Market Summary

 

Totally wrong last night... Philly fed went down, initial claims in-line, housing start slightly better than expected... but.. the market rose by approx 0.5%. 

Cut my sell-call spread on SPY as it seems like the market still have some strength.. 

Market Internals

Volume was rather pathetic here... with a TVOL of ard 550M traded yesterday... It was rather bullish and the bears were no where to be seen... 

Leaders and laggards

The energy and technology sector lead the market out of the red yesterday... providing the strength. I suppose the earnings seasons is the only reason supporting the market at this level. 

Technical Updates

With the market at the resistance, VIX at support, earnings seasons coming to an end... Perhaps we can be looking at some bearish trades... However, on a technical note, it seems like it's a breakout across all the indices. So... gotta wait for a confirmation! 

Commentaries

Stock Market Update

16:10 ET Dow +85.33 at 13255.22, Nasdaq +31.46 at 3062.39, S&P +9.98 at 1415.51 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equities showed indecision during the first hour of the session but were lifted higher as the day went on. A notable increase in housing permits and in-line initial claims data supported the day's advances. The major indices retreated off their highs before the close but still ended firmly in the black. The Nasdaq gained 1.0% and the S&P ended higher by 0.7%. Nasdaq-listed shares outperformed on a few names making big moves. Blyth (BTH 43.36, +6.27) soared 16.9% after filing the registration statement for an initial public offering of its ViSalus brand. The size or the price of the offering has not been announced but Blyth will remain a majority shareholder. Coinstar (CSTR 51.88, +3.66) surged 7.6% after reports suggested the company is discussing a potential sale with a private equity firm. Shares of the Redbox video rental kiosk operator have been mired in a slump since reaching an all-time high of $71.82 in early July. Network solutions providers were generally higher today. Cisco Systems (CSCO 19.02, +1.67) surged 9.6% after beating earnings estimates and reporting in-line revenue. The company also increased the quarterly dividend by 75% to $0.14. Competitor F5 Networks (FFIV 104.05, +4.76) advanced 4.8% as it piggybacked the positive Cisco results. Meanwhile, Facebook (FB 19.87, -1.33) plunged 6.3% as the insider lock-up period expired. Starting today, 271 million additional shares may be traded on the open market. Pressure caused by today's selling has dropped the social media company to an all-time low since its May initial public offering. A handful of notable second quarter earnings releases remain on the calendar.Aeropostale (ARO 13.66, +0.03) and Gap (GPS 34.34, -0.27) will deliver final reports for apparel producers after today's close. Aeropostale is expected to break even on $488.65 million in revenues. Meanwhile, analysts expect Gap to earn $0.47 on revenues of $3.52 billion. Foot Locker (FL 34.49, -0.03) and J.M. Smucker (SJM 78.97, 0.00) will report their results ahead of tomorrow's open. Forecasts expect Foot Locker to earn $0.33 on $1.35 billion in revenues while J.M. Smucker is expected to report earnings of $1.00 on $1.30 billion in revenues. Today's economic data indicated a rise in housing permits. At 812,000, the reading was well ahead of the expected 770,000, and it was received as a possible sign of a housing rebound. Separately, housing starts hit an annualized rate of 746,000 units during July. This number was below the 763,000 that was expected. Homebuilder stocks responded positively to the data as the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 23.09, +0.72) added 3.2%. Builder KB Home (KBH 10.89, +0.57) jumped 5.5% after this morning's data. The Philadelphia Fed Survey rose to -7.1 for August. That comes after a reading of -12.9 for July. The print constitutes a small miss as economists polled by Briefing.com had expected that the Survey would improve to a -5.0 reading. The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 366,000, which was just below the 368,000 that had been expected. The tally was also up from the revised prior week count of 364,000. As for continuing claims, they fell to about 3.305 million from 3.336 million. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes just two releases. The Michigan Sentiment for August will be released at 9:55 AM ET while leading indicators will be reported at 10 AM ET. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2167/829. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1697/739.

After Hours

16:37 ET OPLK +3.5%, GPS +1.4%, COSI -12.8%, MRVL -7.2% following earnings/guidance :

Equities showed indecision during the first hour of the session but were lifted higher as the day went on. A notable increase in housing permits and in-line initial claims data supported the day's advances. The major indices retreated off their highs before the close but still ended firmly in the black. The Nasdaq gained 1.0% and the S&P ended higher by 0.7%.

Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: VNET, ARO, CRMT, AVGO, BRCD, COSI, DRYS, GPS, MRVL, NWY, OPLK, SCSC

Futures are mixed after hours: S&P 500 futures are +0.84 from fair value of 1413.26 and Nasdaq100 futures are -0.80 from fair value of 2767.3.

Tomorrow morning before the open no economic reports are scheduled to be released.

Tomorrow before the open look for the following companies to report: ANN, CMRG, FL, HIBB, SJM, KIRK

Commodities

Oil spiked to multi-months high, across $95 per barrel, due to the under production in the oil inventory report from last Wednesday... 

Treasuries 

the 10yr and 30 yr yield continue to fall while the 2 yr yield increased... doesn't look bearish to you? let's wait for the confirmation and wait for the ride down!

Market Call: 17 Aug

Date: FLAT(to the downside) 

Accuracy: 7/13