14 August 2012 AMC

14 August 2012

Market Summary

Definitely a bear day. The main indices were up at the initially up for the day, however crashing in the final hours. During the last few minutes, DOW managed to close at a small gain due to short covering. 

Market Internals

DVOL outpacing UVOL. 

DECN out paced ADVN

New Highs outpaced New lows. 

Spike in VIX

Slightly better volume compared to yesterday. 

With these internals, it's quite apparent it's quite flat yesterday, however bear seems to gain more strength. 

Not to mention, Retail Sales and PPI came out better than expectation that kept the market afloat. Without the reports, 14 Aug is definitely a downer. 

Leaders and laggards

Not much movements in the sectors yesterday... 

Technical Updates

Looks what happens after a hanging man at the top?? Stalled and end of trend... the market is still waiting... good news is just enough to keep the market up... but can it push the market higher? I highly doubt so.. without a retracement, the bulls are losing their strength... Just one small bad news and the market will take the opportunity to tank. 

Commentaries

Stock Market Update

16:15 ET Dow +2.71 at 13177.25, Nasdaq -5.54 at 3016.98, S&P -0.18 at 1403.93 :[BRIEFING.COM] Equities got a lift at the open from strong U.S. retail sales and the mixed Eurozone GDP data. However, the strength did not extend into the afternoon as the major indices slowly came off their highs and settled near session lows. Another day of thin volume contributed to a narrow intraday range as the S&P 500 drifted to a flat finish. Retail sales rose during July by 0.8%, which was better than the 0.2% increase that had been broadly expected. Excluding autos, retail sales rose by 0.8%, which contrasts with the Briefing.com consensus call for a rise of 0.3%. Overall producer prices rose in July by 0.3%, which was hotter than the 0.2% increase that had been widely forecasted. Core producer prices were up 0.4% which is ahead of the 0.2% Briefing.com consensus. Financials showed strength early but lost steam into the close. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF 14.93, -0.02) slipped 0.1%. Within the group, Bank of America(BAC 7.78, +0.06) rose 0.8% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 37.10, +0.11) advanced 0.3%. However, European financials were weaker with Credit Suisse (CS 17.45, -0.29) andUBS (UBS 10.74, -0.08) down 1.6% and 0.7% respectively. Technology stocks underperformed the broader market. Juniper Networks (JNPR 18.07, -0.85) tumbled 4.5%. Shares of the network infrastructure producer were lower after a major U.S. carrier has reportedly put networking capital expenditures on hold. Meanwhile,CIENA (CIEN 16.65, -1.25) plunged 7.0% after FBR Capital downgraded the shares to ‘market perform' from ‘outperform.' Stocks in the materials sector also lagged behind with the biggest weakness coming from miners and chemical producers. Valspar (VAL 50.74, -2.20) slid 4.2% after missing revenue expectations. The management reaffirmed full-year guidance but described the fourth quarter as ‘challenging.' Groupon (GRPN 5.51, -2.04) plunged 27.0% after receiving multiple downgrades in the wake of yesterday's earnings report which was accompanied by disappointing guidance. Today's selling has dropped shares to an all-time low and represents a nearly 79.0% decrease in value since the company went public in November 2011. Although most of the quarterly results have been delivered, a few more notable names will report earnings before tomorrow's open. Deere (DE 80.13, +0.37) is expected to earn $2.32 on revenues of $9.54 billion. Also due out are earnings from retailers Target (TGT 63.38, +0.87) and Staples (SPLS 13.45, +0.09). Target is expected to earn $1.01 on $16.83 billion revenues while analysts are looking for earnings of $0.22 and $5.73 billion from Staples. Following yesterday's lowest close in five years, the volatility index, or VIX, rebounded by 9.0%. After hitting a low of 13.66 during yesterday's session, the index has rebounded to 14.92. After an initial spike at the open, the volatility measure remained steady through most of the session before making a final push higher into the close. Thin volume was once again the story. Just over 566 million shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Multiple economic data points will be reported tomorrow. The weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be out at 7 AM ET. CPI and Empire Manufacturing for the month of July will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Also due out are last month's industrial production and capacity utilization readings which will hit the wires at 9:15 AM ET and the NAHB Housing Market Index which is scheduled for a 10 AM ET release. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1481/1519. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 942/1526.

After Hours

16:58 ET APP +20.0%, REGI +8.5%, CRMB -19.6%, NLST -14.7% following earnings/guidance :

Equities got a lift at the open from strong U.S. retail sales and the mixed Eurozone GDP data. However, the strength did not extend into the afternoon as the major indices slowly came off their highs and settled near session lows. Another day of thin volume contributed to a narrow intraday range as the S&P 500 drifted to a flat finish.

Today after the close the following companies reported earnings: SSRX, BOBE, ENG, FFN, JKHY, JDSU, KITD, MYGN, PAAS, PLAB, SHOR, TRQ

Futures are lower after hours: S&P 500 futures are -1.32 from fair value of 1401.12 and Nasdaq100 futures are -3.30 from fair value of 2726.80.

Tomorrow morning before the open, 6 economic reports are scheduled to be released: 1) MBA Mortgage Index, 2) CPI (Consensus 0.2%) and Core CPI (Consensus 0.2%), 3) Empire Manufacturing (Consensus 5.0), 4) Net Long-Term TIC Flows, 5) Industrial Production (Consensus 0.6%) and 6) Capacity Utilization (Consensus 79.3%).

Tomorrow before the open look for the following companies to report: ANF, CSIQ, CTRN, DE, MBND, SPLS, ELOS, TGT, VVTV, YTEC

Commodities

Treasuries 

A very significant drop in the 5year and 10 year and 30 years. There is definitely a huge run from the equity market to the bonds that caused such drop in the treasuries yield... Not a good sign...


I'm still bear.

Market Call: 15 Aug

Date: DOWN

Accuracy: 7/11